Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:22AM||Sunset 8:27PM||Monday June 21, 2021 1:24 AM CDT (06:24 UTC)||Moonrise 5:05PM||Moonset 2:50AM||Illumination 86%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Urbana, ILHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KILX 210546 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021
SYNOPSIS. Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
A strong cold front will push into the region from the northwest tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible ahead of the front, into tonight. Scattered showers and a few storms will linger behind the front on Monday, along with much cooler temperatures.
UPDATE. Issued at 803 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage along and ahead of an advancing cold front in IA/MO this evening. While a special 19Z KILX raob was overall unimpressive, the latest 00Z sounding shows MLCIN decreasing to 54 J/kg while instability has increased, now measuring over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Veered 0-3 km wind profile and deep layer shear to around 40 kt will support organized storms and a severe threat into portions of west central and central Illinois this evening. Do anticipate some downward trend in storm intensity starting around midnight as storms cross the I-55 corridor as we lose daytime heating and diurnal instability wanes.
SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Complex of storms has weakened as it pushed into western IL early this afternoon. 19z ILX sounding indicated a layer of warm air centered at 850 mb, providing a significant cap for deeper convective development. Besides the cap, the atmosphere is supportive of robust convection given 60 kt winds at 500 mb and mid level lapse rates at 7C/km. Latest forecast soundings and SPC mesoanalysis show a weaker cap over eastern IL, which could be eroded from outflow moving in from the west. Latest hi-res visible satellite imagery shows modest cu development east of I-57. This will be the area to watch over the next few hours, and the last few runs of the HRRR have shown discrete convection here between 21-00z. All severe modes would be possible given nearly 3k J/kg MLCAPE and strong deep layer shear near 50kt, but with the warm front located farther north near I-80, damaging winds and hail are primary threats.
A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a cold front across eastern Iowa early this evening, then push into the northwest CWA towards mid evening. Severe storms are possible given moderate instability and favorable deep layer shear. Damaging winds gusts are the primary threat, with hail and an isolated QLCS tornado possible. A localized flash flood threat exists due to high rainfall rates when PWs peak over 1.75" this evening. As the line shifts farther southeast into central IL near I-55 towards midnight, conditions become less favorable for both severe and flash flooding with decreasing instability. The weakening trend continues overnight with diminishing storm coverage expected near and south of I-70 late. Southwest gradient winds gusting over 20 mph ahead of the front this evening, will veer west northwest post frontal late tonight, also gusting over 20 mph.
The upper trof and an associated shortwave cross the region on Monday. This could bring a band of showers as far northwest as I-55, and scattered afternoon showers and storms to southeast IL. Low level cold advection looks fairly impressive for early summer, as 850 mb temps drop into the single digits C. This combined with mostly cloudy skies should limit highs to the low and mid 70s.
LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
High pressure stretching across the Ohio Valley keeps quiet and seasonably cool conditions in place for Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and storms along an elevated warm front should stay to our northwest Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, but will need to monitor where the better warm/moist advection lays out across the front. The warm front shifts well north of the region on Wednesday, and southerly winds will bring a warming trend, returning highs to the 80s. A warm and potentially active pattern then sets up across the Midwest for Thursday and into the weekend. This occurs as a longwave trof settles into the upper Midwest, bringing southwest flow and several upper level waves to the region.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021
A line of showers and isolated storms associated with a cold front are currently moving through central IL late tonight. South- southwesterly winds will turn northwest overnight as the front moves through. A period of MVFR ceilings is also possible for a period before scattering out later this morning. Thereafter, rather benign conditions are expected for the remainder of the day with northwest winds around 10-15 kts.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.
UPDATE . Deubelbeiss SYNOPSIS . 25 SHORT TERM . 25 LONG TERM . 25 AVIATION . NMB
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|University of Illinois - Willard, IL||6 mi||32 min||SSW 16 G 22||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||80°F||68°F||67%||1001.1 hPa|
|Rantoul National Aviation Center Airport, IL||13 mi||30 min||SW 14 G 19||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||79°F||67°F||67%||1001.4 hPa|
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Wind History from CMI (wind in knots)
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