Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Urbana, IL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday August 18, 2019 4:03 PM CDT (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 8:51AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Urbana, IL
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location: 40.11, -88.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 182056
afdilx
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
356 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
isolated to scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
will occur in southeast il into early evening prior to sunset as
a frontal boundary pushes through southeast illinois. More
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Monday and
again Tuesday especially during the afternoon and early evening
hours. There is a slight risk of severe storms on Tuesday
afternoon and evening across the area as hot and humid conditions
prevail. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees. Highs Monday will reach 85 to 90 degrees, with heat
indices in the 90s Monday afternoon, and near 100 degrees in
southeast il. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 80s and lower
90s, with afternoon heat indices sizzling into the upper 90s to
around 105 degrees.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 330 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms was over far
southeast il into SE mo and NE ar at mid afternoon. These storms
formed along an outflow boundary the was pushing southeast through
southeast il and strongest storms currently south of CWA in
edwards and southern wayne counties. Unstable capes of 2500-3600
j kg were east of i-57, highest along the wabash river. A
thunderstorm was over champaign county from savoy cmi airport
south and tracking eastward toward vermilion county. Surface
analysis shows the main synoptic front extended from 1001 mb low
pressure over eastern lake superior thru central wi ia and into
central ks. Aloft a broad weak upper level trof was over the
great lakes, much of the midwest and over the northern
plains rockies, while 594 dm 500 mb subtropical ridge was near
the southeast atlantic coast and sprawled back into tx nm.

Diurnally driven scattered convection in eastern il should
diminish toward early evening as sunsets, and only carried slight
chances or dry rest of tonight into mid Mon morning over cwa. Lows
overnight in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. The latest models
show the frontal boundary pushing SE into il river valley around
midnight tonight and into southeast il near i-70 by 18z 1 pm mon.

This boundary to help develop more isolated to scattered
convection by midday Monday and continue into early Mon evening
mainly over areas from i-72 south. Airmass gets unstable again
over areas south of i-72 by Mon afternoon and could see a few more
strong thunderstorms especially in southeast il. Highs Mon of
85-90f warmest in southeast il where heat indices reach the upper
90s to near 100 Mon afternoon.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 311 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
isolated to scattered convection over southern CWA early mon
evening to diminish after sunset, with another lull expected into
mid Tue morning. A disturbance and possible MCS to affect area by
tue afternoon and evening bringing next chance of thunderstorms.

Spc has much of area in a slight risk of severe storms tue
afternoon evening as very unstable airmass develops with capes
rising to 3000-4000 j kg during Tue afternoon over southern cwa.

Highs in the upper 80s lower 90s on Tue with afternoon heat
indices in the upper 90s to around 105f, highest in SW CWA where
heat advisory may eventually be needed Tue afternoon.

The main frontal boundary to push sse into NW CWA late Tue night
and thru rest of CWA during the day wed. This will likely continue
chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wed especially central and
southern cwa. Highs Wed range from lower 80s by galesburg, to the
upper 80s to near 90f in southeast il where heat indices peak
around 100f in southeast il Wed afternoon.

Frontal boundary pushes south of area during Wed night and thu
while upper level trof over the great lakes brings in cooler and
less humid air into central il. Still have 20-30% chance of
convection over areas south of i-74 Wed night into Thu as ecmwf
model is keeping QPF over southern half of CWA thru Thu afternoon,
and not as far south with frontal boundary as the gem and gfs
models which are dry over our CWA overnight Wed night and thu.

Stayed close to model consensus for convection chances here but
confidence of convection chances is low during Wed night and thu.

Highs Thu and Fri of 79 to 83 degrees, warmest in southeast il.

Lows Thu and Fri nights in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Generally dry conditions expected much of the time from Thu night
thru next Sunday, with weak high pressure over the great lakes.

But the subtropical ridge over the SW and southern states and
upper level trof moving into the eastern great lakes and new
england puts il in a wnw upper level flow, and could see some
disturbances tracking ese and possibly affecting the area, though
timing and placement of these are difficult to project that far
out. Consensus of models has slight chance of convection over much
of CWA on Fri afternoon, Sat and again Sunday afternoon. Highs in
the low to mid 80s next weekend and humidity levels gradually
increase.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1245 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
a frontal outflow boundary south of i-72 will be the focus for
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms SE of a danville to
shelbyville line during mid and late afternoon over areas SE of
dec and cmi. Kept central il TAF sites dry rest of today thinking
convection would develop SE of this area and track further se
during rest of the day with the boundary. Cams show some
convection moving into parts of central il after 08-09z and then
diminishing by mid Mon morning and have vcsh for central il
airports then. MVFR ceilings could be possible too late tonight
into Mon morning with light fog possible. Winds that went nw
behind the boundary over central il airports to veer back to the
sw during mid late afternoon at 5-10 kts and stay below 10 kts and
trend lighter tonight into Mon morning.

Ilx watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... 07
short term... 07
long term... 07
aviation... 07


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
University of Illinois - Willard, IL6 mi70 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F70°F69%1010.5 hPa
Rantoul National Aviation Center Airport, IL13 mi88 minSSE 11 G 1510.00 miFair84°F68°F60%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMI

Wind History from CMI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S7S4S3SE4SE5S5S6S7S7S7S6S5S7S8S7SW11
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1 day agoSW10SW12SW8SW7SW7SW5SW5SW5SW5W3CalmS4S4S7CalmCalmW6W8
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2 days agoW7W6W4W3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE3SE4E3SE3E3SE4SE6SE7S8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.