Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falmouth, PA
March 28, 2024 8:56 AM EDT (12:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 10:08 PM Moonset 7:18 AM |
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 735 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through Friday morning - .
.gale watch in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon - .
Today - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt - . Increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun - NW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers through the night.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will move through this morning, while low pressure tracks northeastward off the coast through tonight. High pressure will build across the southeastern states Friday. A front will stall near the area over the weekend into early next week, with multiple waves of low pressure tracking along it. Gale conditions are possible Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday.
a cold front will move through this morning, while low pressure tracks northeastward off the coast through tonight. High pressure will build across the southeastern states Friday. A front will stall near the area over the weekend into early next week, with multiple waves of low pressure tracking along it. Gale conditions are possible Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday.
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 281110 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 710 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure along the Carolina coast will track northeast and out to sea today. High pressure will briefly build into Pennsylvania tonight and Friday, then a weak area of low pressure approaching from the midwest will pass across the state Saturday. A more significant low is likely to track just north of Pennsylvania through the Eastern Great Lakes early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
The most significant rain associated has shifted east of the forecast area early this morning. However, model soundings and surface obs support the possibility of some lingering very light rain or drizzle across parts of the Lower Susq Valley through late morning. The passage of a cold front and arrival of a drier northwest flow should result in a diminishing chance of measurable rain over the southeast counties by early afternoon.
Latest guidance tracks a developing surface low on the front well east of PA later today, keeping rain east of the forecast area this afternoon. A much drier northwest flow behind the cold front will result in brightening skies from west to east today. However, model RH profiles indicate warm advection aloft ahead of the approaching upper trough will result in a lingering veil of high clouds over Central and Eastern PA.
GEFS 2m temp anomalies point to near seasonal highs today, ranging from the upper 40s over the Alleghenies, to the low 50s east of the mountains. Forecast soundings over the central and western counties shows a marked dry layer above a weak inversion later today, a signature that usually supports undercutting NBM dewpoints a few degrees.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Fair and seasonable weather is anticipated tonight, as the upper trough shifts east of the state. However, a weak area of low pressure diving across the Ohio Valley could potentially come close enough to produce a few snow showers over Southern Somerset County.
Large scale subsidence behind the exiting trough should result in sunny, breezy and seasonable weather Friday. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -1C to -4C translates to expected highs ranging from the mid 40s over the N Mtns, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings also support wgusts several knots above NBM guidance Friday afternoon and dewpoints a few degrees below due to fairly deep mixing. Higher fuel moistures should limit the risk of wildfire spread, despite expected wind gusts near 30kt and RH falling to around 30pct.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Areas of LIFR and brief VLIFR will continue across the Lower Susq Valley and Western Pocono airfields through the mid morning (12-13Z) before slowly improving to MVFR late this monring. MVFR conditions (related to CIG bases) could linger until at least the mid afternoon hours before lifting to bkn VFR Stratocu cloud bases.
Current MVFR cigs at KIPT (where the cold front just pushed trough around 08Z) will improve to VFR between 16-17Z. A similar, albeit slightly faster progression from borderline IFR/MVFR cigs (in cooler/moist upslope flow at the KBFD and KJST airfields), to late morning VFR will occur.
Elsewhere across the Central Ridge and Valley Region of the state (that was firmly in the wake of the cold front), mainly VFR will occur, though there could be some periods of high end MVFR CIGS through Noon EDT (16Z).
Mainly VFR will follow for later this afternoon into Friday as a weak sfc ridge of high pressure builds over the Commonwealth.
The is a low end probability for a few periods of MVFR cigs redeveloping late tonight at KJST and KBFD.
As an area of surface low pressure intensifies fairly quickly well east of the NJ Coast tonight, NW wind will increase with likely gusts into the low to mid 20s. Borderline LLWS at all TAF sites tonight with the base of 35KT NW winds between 1.5 and 2 kft AGL. Leaning toward some mixing of the NW wind to smooth out the vertical gradient of the wind profile and create more of a turbulent low-level mechanical mixing profile compared to true LLWS with a +/-20KT change over 200 FT in the verticaL.
Outlook...
Fri...Patchy MVFR cigs possible early across the Western Mtns of PA, otherwise VFR with a moderately gusty (20-25 mph) NW winds.
Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry weather Sunday afternoon.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 710 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure along the Carolina coast will track northeast and out to sea today. High pressure will briefly build into Pennsylvania tonight and Friday, then a weak area of low pressure approaching from the midwest will pass across the state Saturday. A more significant low is likely to track just north of Pennsylvania through the Eastern Great Lakes early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
The most significant rain associated has shifted east of the forecast area early this morning. However, model soundings and surface obs support the possibility of some lingering very light rain or drizzle across parts of the Lower Susq Valley through late morning. The passage of a cold front and arrival of a drier northwest flow should result in a diminishing chance of measurable rain over the southeast counties by early afternoon.
Latest guidance tracks a developing surface low on the front well east of PA later today, keeping rain east of the forecast area this afternoon. A much drier northwest flow behind the cold front will result in brightening skies from west to east today. However, model RH profiles indicate warm advection aloft ahead of the approaching upper trough will result in a lingering veil of high clouds over Central and Eastern PA.
GEFS 2m temp anomalies point to near seasonal highs today, ranging from the upper 40s over the Alleghenies, to the low 50s east of the mountains. Forecast soundings over the central and western counties shows a marked dry layer above a weak inversion later today, a signature that usually supports undercutting NBM dewpoints a few degrees.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Fair and seasonable weather is anticipated tonight, as the upper trough shifts east of the state. However, a weak area of low pressure diving across the Ohio Valley could potentially come close enough to produce a few snow showers over Southern Somerset County.
Large scale subsidence behind the exiting trough should result in sunny, breezy and seasonable weather Friday. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -1C to -4C translates to expected highs ranging from the mid 40s over the N Mtns, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings also support wgusts several knots above NBM guidance Friday afternoon and dewpoints a few degrees below due to fairly deep mixing. Higher fuel moistures should limit the risk of wildfire spread, despite expected wind gusts near 30kt and RH falling to around 30pct.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Areas of LIFR and brief VLIFR will continue across the Lower Susq Valley and Western Pocono airfields through the mid morning (12-13Z) before slowly improving to MVFR late this monring. MVFR conditions (related to CIG bases) could linger until at least the mid afternoon hours before lifting to bkn VFR Stratocu cloud bases.
Current MVFR cigs at KIPT (where the cold front just pushed trough around 08Z) will improve to VFR between 16-17Z. A similar, albeit slightly faster progression from borderline IFR/MVFR cigs (in cooler/moist upslope flow at the KBFD and KJST airfields), to late morning VFR will occur.
Elsewhere across the Central Ridge and Valley Region of the state (that was firmly in the wake of the cold front), mainly VFR will occur, though there could be some periods of high end MVFR CIGS through Noon EDT (16Z).
Mainly VFR will follow for later this afternoon into Friday as a weak sfc ridge of high pressure builds over the Commonwealth.
The is a low end probability for a few periods of MVFR cigs redeveloping late tonight at KJST and KBFD.
As an area of surface low pressure intensifies fairly quickly well east of the NJ Coast tonight, NW wind will increase with likely gusts into the low to mid 20s. Borderline LLWS at all TAF sites tonight with the base of 35KT NW winds between 1.5 and 2 kft AGL. Leaning toward some mixing of the NW wind to smooth out the vertical gradient of the wind profile and create more of a turbulent low-level mechanical mixing profile compared to true LLWS with a +/-20KT change over 200 FT in the verticaL.
Outlook...
Fri...Patchy MVFR cigs possible early across the Western Mtns of PA, otherwise VFR with a moderately gusty (20-25 mph) NW winds.
Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry weather Sunday afternoon.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMDT HARRISBURG INTL,PA | 4 sm | 42 min | NW 05 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 46°F | 46°F | 100% | 30.03 |
KCXY CAPITAL CITY,PA | 9 sm | 13 min | NNW 08 | 2 sm | Overcast | Haze | 50°F | 45°F | 82% | 30.03 |
KTHV YORK,PA | 16 sm | 15 min | NW 07 | 2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 46°F | 45°F | 93% | 30.01 |
KMUI MUIR AAF (FORT INDIANTOWN GAP),PA | 23 sm | 61 min | var 06 | 7 sm | Overcast | 48°F | 45°F | 87% | 29.99 | |
KLNS LANCASTER,PA | 24 sm | 55 min | W 05 | 3 sm | Overcast | Mist | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 30.02 |
Tide / Current for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT 1.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:57 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT 1.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:57 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12 am |
1.7 |
1 am |
1.9 |
2 am |
1.9 |
3 am |
1.6 |
4 am |
1.3 |
5 am |
0.9 |
6 am |
0.5 |
7 am |
0.3 |
8 am |
0.2 |
9 am |
0.4 |
10 am |
0.9 |
11 am |
1.6 |
12 pm |
2.3 |
1 pm |
2.7 |
2 pm |
2.7 |
3 pm |
2.5 |
4 pm |
2.2 |
5 pm |
1.7 |
6 pm |
1.3 |
7 pm |
0.9 |
8 pm |
0.7 |
9 pm |
0.5 |
10 pm |
0.5 |
11 pm |
0.8 |
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EDT 1.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 12:31 PM EDT 2.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EDT 1.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 12:31 PM EDT 2.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12 am |
1.9 |
1 am |
1.9 |
2 am |
1.7 |
3 am |
1.4 |
4 am |
0.9 |
5 am |
0.5 |
6 am |
0.3 |
7 am |
0.2 |
8 am |
0.5 |
9 am |
1 |
10 am |
1.7 |
11 am |
2.2 |
12 pm |
2.5 |
1 pm |
2.5 |
2 pm |
2.3 |
3 pm |
1.9 |
4 pm |
1.4 |
5 pm |
1 |
6 pm |
0.6 |
7 pm |
0.4 |
8 pm |
0.3 |
9 pm |
0.6 |
10 pm |
0.9 |
11 pm |
1.4 |
Sterling, VA,
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