Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 7:23 AM   Moonset 11:33 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 856 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Sunday - .
Tonight - SE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers early this evening, then numerous showers with isolated tstms after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Wed - NE winds 10 kt - .becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers.Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 920 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis - The cold front will settle just south of the local waters this evening before lifting back northward tomorrow as a warm front. A few offshore- moving storms could contain gusty winds mainly south of the sebastian through early tonight and again tomorrow afternoon. Broad high pressure will return to the area on Sunday before moving quickly out to sea on Monday. Rain chances steadily increase through next week.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 10th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KCTP 112214 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 614 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
Upper level troughing will remain over Pennsylvania this weekend with a potent shortwave tracking over the state tonight into early Sunday. The upper trough will lift out early next week, then a cold front will likely push through Tuesday. A wave of low pressure is likely to track south of Pennsylvania next Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Rain band sliding east on time. Models have it slow/drag a little as it starts to exit the ern zones. Trended a little that way with the PoPs. TSRA moving in from PBZ's area seem to be weakening quite nicely from their earlier strength in ern OH.
The airmass these are moving over currently is very much like ours, locally, at this time, rain-cooled and seemingly stable.
However, current RAP soundings are still a little unstable just above the blyr with (+) CAPE area topping out around 20kft at JST and AOO in the next 2-3 hrs. So, the thunder should hold on until it gets into the CWA by a county or two, and maybe deeper. Small hail was observed as the storms came thru KPIT, and the RAP WBZ is around 5-6kft in the Laurels, so some tiny hail may also be possible in our SW zones, too.

The shortwave driving these storms/showers will continue into the central mtns and Susq valley. Have not made too much of a mention of TS after the first two tiers of counties in the west, but there could be a little farther east than that.

Prev...
Upstream trough digging southeastward from the central GLAKS is bringing a return to showers this afternoon as the upper low tracks to southern Ontario by 00z Sun. Strong large scale forcing, in combination with some minimal model cape, supports high POPs with a tsra possible in spots, although areas east of the Alleghenies will largely be stably stratified. Some activity west of the mountains this evening will have the highest likelihood of producing an isolated lightning strike. Showers should reach peak intensity over the Central Mountains between 20-21z, and then push into the Susq Valley this evening.
Although a brief, heavy downpour will occur in many locations, modest PWAT values indicate that rainfall should generally not be very heavy. Ensemble mean qpf of 0.2 to 0.4 inches represents the most likely rainfall by late this evening.

Upper trough continues to dig southeastward, cutting off along the PA/NY border later tonight into Sunday morning. Aurora watchers *MAY* be able to see some color tonight between the cloud breaks, but we believe those will be few and far between.
Steep lapse rates under the upper low center will support plenty of cloud cover tonight and Sunday and at least scattered showers lasting into Sunday afternoon. Highs for Mothers Day will range mostly through the 60s with upper 50s in the higher terrain of the Alleghenies.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The upper low lifts out Sunday night and Monday with improving conditions for Monday, and temperatures moderating thanks to a milder southwest flow. A cold front trailing low pressure in eastern Canada is fcst to stall out over the lower Great Lakes Monday and will trigger some showers or a t-storm over the NW mtns Monday afternoon, but it appears most of Central PA should start the week rain-free.

A wave of low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley Tuesday before crossing the area Tuesday night. This system will be accompanied by a renewed chance of rain and perhaps some thunder.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lingering unsettled weather is possible into Wednesday, before a ridge builds in Wednesday night into Thursday. This will support the longest period of dry and sunny weather we have seen in awhile. The overall upper level pattern heading into next weekend looks rather blocky - which is typical for this time of year - but also results in much lower confidence/predictability.
Such a pattern supports changeable weather with temperatures oscillating around average for this time of year. Some data suggest a cut- off low pressure system could bring a slight risk of heavy rainfall on 5/18 per the latest CPC 8-14 day hazards outlook.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At 21z, A band of rain showers is pushing from the central mtns into the Susq Valley. This band could briefly drop vsbys to MVFR across the Susq Valley during the early evening hours.

Additional showers (and some thunder) are pushing into western PA early this evening. This activity should make it into the western highlands before sunset, and then weaken as it progresses eastward from there late this evening.

Expect cigs to drop to IFR at BFD and JST overnight, as upsloping westerly flow develops. Farther to the east, the central mtns and Susq Valley are progged to see their cigs dip to MVFR overnight.

Sunday will see northwesterly flow develop across the area, with gusts to 15 kts possible across the southern Alleghenies (JST, AOO). Cigs should slowly improve as the day progresses, with the slowest improvement expected across the western highlands.
There could be a few diurnal rain showers by afternoon, esp across eastern PA.

Outlook...

Mon...Morning fog across the east/Susq Valley. Showers return across the north by aftn.

Tue...Showers/tstms and reductions developing.

Wed...Showery weather and reductions continue.

Thu...Slow improvement, with a few lingering showers possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Sat -- 01:25 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:57 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Sat -- 12:49 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:45 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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