Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Powell, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Widespread shower activity with scattered embedded thunderstorms will break up this evening in favor of just scattered showers, primarily without any thunder though that cannot entirely be ruled out. A cold front will be situated in northwest CWA this evening, and shower activity found along it will be the last of the system as drier air is ushered in behind the front. Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 40s behind the front - basically along and west of the I-75 corridor north of Cincinnati, and north of I-74 west of Cincy.
Further to the east/southeast, the front will take some more time to work through, possibly as late as the predawn hours at Portsmouth.
Readings here will only bottom out in the upper 50s.

Overcast sky cover will be found tonight as winds shift northwest and increase to 10-15 mph behind the front. Wind along the Ohio and in the lower Scioto Valley will be under 10 mph overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Cloud cover will be substantial during the day and break up in the later afternoon, favoring clear skies overnight. Northwest winds 10-20 mph will be found over the northern 2/3 of the CWA, while they will be more 10 mph along the Ohio River. Highs in this cold advection pattern will be in the lower 60s, some mid 60s over Kentucky.

A ridge of high pressure will build in at night, offering a good radiational cooling night with light winds and clear skies. Lows will drop into the lower 40s with some upper 30s scattered throughout central Ohio.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure across the Great Lakes will offer seasonal temperatures and mostly sunny skies on Sunday. By Monday, the high will shift off to the east, leading to return southerly flow and above normal temperatures. Aloft, H5 ridging will remain centered across the eastern United States with a trough over the intermountain west. Shortwave energy will eject northeast out of this trough, acting to compress the eastern ridge on Tuesday. Guidance promotes development of a surface low in association with the shortwave, moving across the Great Lakes during the day on Tuesday. At this time, it appears instability will be more robust ahead of the cold front than with previous systems. Severe potential will depend on several factors, such as strength of the mid/upper- level westerlies, timing of the front/pre-frontal trough, and the amount of sunshine leading up to any convection that is forced. Will maintain severe mention in the HWO product consistent with SPC Day 5 risk.

Behind this system, the H5 ridge across the east holds its position as additional waves eject in southwesterly flow. These waves, depending on the location of the now-stalled surface front, will lead to periods of showers and storms. Based on current ensemble guidance, the focus of the unsettled weather will be late Wednesday and again late Thursday into Friday morning.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers will continue to impact the TAF sites for the next few hours.
These showers are producing MVFR to briefly IFR visibilities.
Widespread MVFR ceilings are also in place. After showers dissipate and move east in the next few hours, MVFR ceilings will continue, eventually dropping to IFR at times overnight and into tomorrow morning.

The low clouds will likely remain in place well into Saturday, lifting to MVFR at some point during the morning, but not scattering out until early to mid afternoon. VFR conditions are expected after that occurs.

Winds will shift from the SSW to the WNW over the next few hours, and will remain around 5-10 knots overnight. NW winds with gusts of up to 20 knots can be expected Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are expected to occur Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.