Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 8:25 PM   Moonset 5:47 AM

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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh-willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 358 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through this evening - .
Today - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. A chance of showers early, then a slight chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.Tonight - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 241847 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 247 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the Great Lakes will bring cool conditions tonight, with dry weather through Thursday. A warming trend will begin by the end of the week, as an upper level ridge moves east of the region, with precipitation chances beginning again by Friday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A cold front has now moved most of the way through the ILN WA, with northerly flow bringing drier air into the region. There is a large surface high over the Great Lake, but also a notable amount of relatively cold air at 925mb-850mb. This cool air aloft will keep clouds in place for a while, and the potential for these clouds to dissipate overnight is one of the main challenges for the forecast. This forecast has been trended slightly more cloudy than the previous update, based on the overall size and robust appearance of the cloud shield across northern OH/IN and southern Michigan.

Frost and freeze conditions remain a concern for the area overnight into Thursday morning, but confidence is not high in how this will end up working out. A Freeze Warning was issued for the areas where some 32-or-lower readings appear likely, even if clouds do remain in place. A Frost Advisory was issued for a few additional tiers of counties. Despite a favorable temperature forecast, formation is actually somewhat uncertain, with winds not going completely calm and some potential for patches of clouds to persist.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The surface high will drift eastward into Quebec on Thursday, with generally light northeasterly flow over the Ohio Valley.
Mostly clear skies should allow plentiful sunshine, with highs still below normal, but at least getting back into the lower 60s after a notably cooler-than-normal stretch.

By Thursday night, some high level clouds will be moving into the area as an upper ridge moves off to the east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
By Friday late morning, the warm front of the low to our west will be lifting into the Ohio Valley, pushing showers out ahead of it. Currently, precipitation looks to arrive Friday afternoon into evening hours on the nose of a strong LLJ. Instability looks pretty limited through this time frame, so widespread storms are not anticipated, but rumbles of thunder may be heard.
Additionally, southerly winds will mix down to the surface, resulting in gustier conditions.Temperatures rise to the upper 60s/ low 70s.

The warm front continues to lift through the region and by Friday overnight hours, some additional instability builds into the area, resulting in continued chances for thunder as the ILN CWA becomes warm sectored. Overnight lows fall to the upper 50s.

The area remains in the open warm sector, sandwiched under strong southwesterly flow between the low pressure to our northwest and the high pressure that has been creeping toward Bermuda for the weekend. This results in wind gusts around 40 MPH, particularly in west central Ohio on Saturday and gusts in the 30 MPH range on Sunday. As of right now, we look to stay just below advisory criteria, but this might be something to watch. Additionally, thanks to the strong warm air advection regime, Saturday's hit the upper 70s with Tds in the upper 50s, while Sunday's highs reach the low 80s, Tds near 60.
Precipitation chances aren't overly high during the weekend, while we're in the warm sector, however, cannot rule out periods of showers/storms, so have kept slight chance to chance in grids.

By Sunday night, the upper level trough will have moved toward the western Great Lakes, dragging a secondary surface feature along with it. This brings the associated cold front into the Ohio Valley, forcing showers and storms out ahead of it for Monday. This will be one to watch for some stronger storms as ample shear should still be present and patchy SBCABE. High temperatures on Monday will be dependent on how quickly the front moves through but for now have gone with low 80s.

By Tuesday, we'll notice slightly cooler temps in the post frontal regime (though, still above normal!) as high pressure builds in from the south and the area dries out.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Some MVFR ceilings are still around the area early this afternoon, but all ceilings should lift or scatter out to VFR within the next few hours. VFR conditions are then expected through the rest of the TAF period. Northerly winds of around 10 knots are expected this afternoon, shifting to the northeast at 10 knots or less through tonight and into tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ042-051-053>055-060>065-070>074-080-082.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052-056.
KY...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058-059-066.

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