Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:32PM Saturday December 14, 2019 6:22 PM EST (23:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:03PMMoonset 10:23AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 610 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Areas of drizzle early this evening. Areas of fog early this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 610 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong low pressure will continue to our north tonight into Sunday. High pressure slides across our area Sunday night, then shifts to our north and east Monday. A warm front slowly lifts northward into our area by later Monday, as low pressure tracks eastward along it and crosses our region during Tuesday. High pressure builds in later Wednesday through Friday, then weakens into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon-by-the-Sea , NJ
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location: 40.18, -73.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 142040 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 340 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure will continue to our north tonight into Sunday. High pressure slides across our area Sunday night, then shifts to our north and east Monday. A warm front slowly lifts northward into our area by later Monday, as low pressure tracks eastward along it and crosses our region during Tuesday. High pressure builds in later Wednesday through Friday, then weakens into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Primary low pressure lies over western Pennsylvania and a secondary low over Delmarva and southern New Jersey will continue to lift to the north and east tonight. These two systems will merge over eastern Canada and will intensify after midnight. Meanwhile, weak high pressure over the Northern Plains will build to the south and east.

The pressure gradient will tighten over the area, and this will be accompanied by a 40-50 kt LLJ. Behind the departing low, winds shift to the west and increase to 15-20 mph with 30-40 mph gusts. There may be a few peak gusts approaching 50 mph, but current thinking is that the 50 mph gusts will neither be frequent enough nor widespread enough to warrant a Wind Advisory. Nevertheless, given these winds along with the nearly saturated ground from the rainfall last night and today may result in locally minor tree damage.

Fog and drizzle continues across portions of Delmarva and New Jersey through this evening, while rain associated with the primary low will affect portions of southeast Pennsylvania and especially the southern Poconos. Rainfall tapers off late this evening, and then skies clear out after midnight tonight.

Lows tonight generally in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. It remains gusty, with west winds 15-20 mph with 30-35 mph gusts through the day. The high moves offshore Sunday evening, and then low pressure begins to develop over the Tennessee Valley. A warm front begins to lift out ahead of the developing low and moves into far southeast portions of the forecast area by daybreak Monday. Will carry slight chance PoPs for Delmarva and the Delaware Valley, as some snow and/or rain may be possible.

Highs on Sunday will generally be in the 40s and lows Sunday night will be in the 20s and low 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday are shaping up to be a pretty messy period, especially Monday and Monday night. A warm front located to our south will be lifting northward through the day Monday into Monday night, before an area of low pressure moves along the front and moves into our area Monday night into Tuesday. Cold air will already be in place early Monday as weak high pressure weakens and retreats to our east. Precipitation is forecast to begin lifting over the warm front to south and move into our area during the morning hours. As the precipitation starts, the column should be cold enough for most places to start out as snow or a rain show mix for most many places. As the warm front slowly drifts northward through the day, warmer air aloft will lift across the area, eventually changing the snow to a wintry mix of sleet, rain, freezing rain. However, before the warm air moves in and the change over takes place, we could have a few inches of snow for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, especially from I-78 northward. South of I-78 down to I-95 corridor, an inch or two will be possible. South and east of I-95 are forecast to have an inch or less if any accumulation at all occurs.

As we move farther through the day Monday into Monday night, the warm air continues to push northward, and the freezing/frozen precipitation lifts northward as well. Areas along and north of I-80 may not lose the wintry mix for most of the night. Once the freezing rain begins to fall, there is expected to be some ice accumulations which will be on top of whatever snow falls. Storm total ice accumulations could reach a quarter of an inch across the Poconos, with lower amounts farther south where the freezing rain will not last as long.

By Tuesday, the surface low will lift across the area along the frontal boundary and warm air should be pushing across all areas and change all precipitation to all liquid rain. As the low passes to our northeast, precipitation will begin to dissipate. Once the winds shift to the west and northwest behind the low, winds will likely become quite gusty with wind gusts at least 25-30 mph by the late afternoon.

The longer part of the long term .

Tuesday night . The last of the previous system will be exiting the area Tuesday evening with some snow showers across the region behind the cold front. Colder and drier air will be sweeping across the region, so the snows will be done by midnight. Lows will drop through the 20s across the N/W areas and to around 30 for Delmarva and the Delaware Valley/S NJ areas. Winds will be from the W or NW with some gusts to around 20 mph early.

Wed thru Sat . A dry period is expected with an area of high pressure building across the area Thu/Fri and exiting offshore Sat. It will be cold at the beginning of the period with much below temperatures expected Thu. Highs that day will only be in the 20s N/W and around freezing for most other areas. A few mid/upper 30s are possible across Delmarva however. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal by Saturday with highs in the mid/upper 30s N/W and low/mid 40s most other areas.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Rest of today . After a day of poor ceilings and visibilities, improving conditions are expected over the next several hours. Lingering rain will also come to an end. Mainly IFR will continue through about 22z, but gradual improvement to MVFR or even local areas of VFR is likely between 22z and 0z, with improvement potentially happening sooner near ILG and PHL. Winds have now shifted to southwesterly at all terminals and this is expected to continue with a trend towards more westerly or west- southwesterly flow this evening. Speeds should run around 10 to 15 kt with some gusts up to 30 kt possible. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Mainly MVFR initially, but continued improvement is expected. Most sites should be VFR by 03z as ongoing storm system pulls away. Once VFR conditions develop, they will remain in place through the night. Southwesterly winds will become more westerly overnight at around 10 to 15 knots with gust up to 30 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR. Westerly winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt possible before winds gradually diminish late in the afternoon and evening. High confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday night . VFR. Light west winds. High confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Conditions lowering to MVFR, then IFR during the morning and continuing through the day and overnight. Snow develops during the morning, then changes to a wintry mix, then all rain late in the day and overnight. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . IFR conditions with rain early, improving to MVFR then VFR by the afternoon. Northwest winds become gusty 20-30 knots by late afternoon.

Tuesday night . VFR. Occasional gusty west to northwest winds 20-30 knots in the evening, dropping off overnight.

Wednesday . VFR. West to northwest winds could gust 20-30 knots.

Wednesday night . VFR. West to northwest could gust 20-30 knots early, before diminishing overnight.

Thursday . VFR. West to northwest wind 5-10 knots.

MARINE. SCA conditions continue through this evening and then gales develop late tonight. Will go ahead and cancel the SCA and convert to gales throughout.

Gales will be in effect across Delaware Bay and Delaware ocean through early Sunday morning, and then a SCA will be needed. For the New Jersey ocean waters, gales continue into Sunday evening. Conditions gradually subside below SCA conditions Sunday night.

Outlook .

Monday . Winds remain below advisory levels during the day Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday . Southwesterly winds will increase, with gusts above 25 kt possible on the southern coastal waters late Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon, an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds is expected and gusts as high as 30 kt are possible on the coastal waters and the Delaware Bay.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . SCA conditions are expected to continue with northwesterly winds gusting as high as 30 kt at times.

Thursday . Winds and seas are expected to slowly subside below SCA criteria during the morning.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide has mostly passed with the exception of the upper reaches of the tidal Delaware River. Flow has already shifted to be offshore, so tidal flooding is not expected with the next several high tide cycles.

The water levels on northern Barnegat Bay will continue to slowly decrease through the afternoon; the coastal flood statement continues for these locations.

The only other thing to mention is that some guidance depicts blow out tides with the low tide Sunday afternoon. At this point, I have kept our forecast above blowout tides as there have been a few cases recently when the models were depicting blow out tides, but our low tide verified at least one half foot higher.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>453. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-454-455.



Synopsis . Gorse Near Term . MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . O'Hara/Robertson Aviation . O'Brien/Robertson Marine . MPS/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding . Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi53 min WSW 19 G 22 52°F 45°F990 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi33 min WSW 16 G 19 52°F 10 ft990 hPa52°F
44091 30 mi23 min 51°F10 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi53 min 53°F 45°F989.4 hPa
MHRN6 33 mi53 min SW 16 G 22
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi53 min WSW 21 G 25 54°F 989 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi53 min 51°F 46°F989.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi53 min W 9.9 G 13 48°F 39°F992 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi33 min SW 23 G 25 52°F 51°F13 ft989.8 hPa (-0.4)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi53 min W 17 G 21 54°F 45°F989.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi47 min WSW 13 G 16 50°F 39°F991.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi27 minWSW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast51°F48°F92%991.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ20 mi83 minWSW 11 miMostly Cloudy52°F48°F89%990.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ24 mi27 minWSW 13 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%992.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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SE5S5CalmS4SE6SW3NW5CalmCalmE3E8SE12S9S10SW14
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1 day agoCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4CalmSE5E5CalmCalmCalmE7E4E5E4E5CalmSE7E6E5
2 days agoW7W8W11W12W12W7W8W7NW12NW9NW9NW9NW6N5N9N8N6N8N3E4E4E5E3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:05 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EST     5.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:23 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:54 PM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:56 PM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.1-0.20.11.12.63.94.85.254.33.11.80.6-0.1-0.4-012.33.344.23.83

Tide / Current Tables for Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Route 35 bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:30 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EST     4.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:23 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:19 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:25 PM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.4-0.1-0.10.51.62.93.94.54.54.13.2210.1-0.3-0.20.51.52.53.33.63.63

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.