Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:46PM Thursday February 27, 2020 8:44 AM EST (13:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:42AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 623 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday morning...
Today..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers early this morning.
Tonight..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the W with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the sw with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 623 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. In the wake of a cold front overnight, gusty northwest flow will overtake the region as the surface low slowly pulls off to the north and east Thursday, and then a weaker cold front will move across the area Friday night. High pressure builds to our south through the weekend before moving offshore by Monday morning. A series of low pressure disturbances then look to track through the great lakes through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon-by-the-Sea , NJ
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location: 40.18, -73.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 271127 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 627 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. In the wake of a cold front overnight, gusty northwest flow will overtake the region as the surface low slowly pulls off to the north and east Thursday, and then a weaker cold front will move across the area Friday night. High Pressure builds to our south through the weekend before moving offshore by Monday morning. A series of low pressure disturbances then look to track through the Great Lakes through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Cold front has crossed the entire region, and most showers have diminished, with the exception of snow showers across a portion of the southern Poconos. Attention now turns to the wind expected to continue through today and beyond.

As mentioned by the previous shift, in the mid and upper levels, a negatively tilted trough will gradually lift northeast through the day today. As with most negatively tilted troughs, this is not expected to be very progressive, keeping a tight height gradient over our region into tomorrow. While the center of the surface low is expected to be over southeastern Canada by mid day today, we'll also keep a very large pressure gradient over our region through the day and into tomorrow.

The most noticeable effects of this today will be windy conditions. By late this afternoon, the top of the mixed layer could be as high as 800 mb, where winds could be above 40kt/46mph. However, it is unlikely we will have efficient mixing once the showers move out, and the mixing layer isn't expected to get that deep until after 21Z/4 PM EST (mixing should become less efficient after sunset) so I continued the trend of keeping the forecast wind gusts below wind advisory criteria, though gusts near or just above 40 mph are possible.

In addition, the cold air advection will be noticeable today as highs today are likely to be 10 to 15 degrees below Wednesday's highs or 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Generally areas east of the fall line should get to the lower 40s, while west of the fall line, highs are expected to be in the 30s.

It is possible that the snow showers could linger in the southern Poconos through the day, given the strong WNW flow. However, also expect significant dry air advection, so at this point, have only mentioned a slight chance of snow showers through the day. It should not expand past the southern Poconos.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Tonight into Friday, the pressure gradient is not expected to diminish much. Consequently, we'll keep at least breezy conditions across the region at least into Friday afternoon. Even overnight tonight, winds are unlikely to decouple.

Temperatures on Friday are likely to be close to what we see today, with highs mostly in the 30s and 40s.

A narrow surface and low level trough associated with the still departing low could provide enough lift to spark off some rain showers across portions of Delmarva. However, given how much dry air advection we will see before then, it is not expected to amount to much.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Summary: The first half of the extended will feature cool and mostly dry conditions, while the second half will be warmer with greater precipitation chances. Significant headlines do not appear likely at this time.

Details .

Saturday through Sunday . The cold closed low, initially centered over Quebec, will very slowly progress NE Friday into Saturday. Additional shortwave energy pivoting down the backside of this feature will result in continued mid-lvl height falls over our area through Saturday morning with heights then beginning to rebound as short-wave ridging briefly moves over the area. The occluded & vertically-stacked surface low will weaken north of the area through early Saturday, with a weak surface trough and cold front moving through the area Friday night. High Pressure will then build SE of the area Saturday through Sunday.

Consequently expect a stretch of cool and generally dry weather through the period. High temperatures will likely be coolest on Saturday (behind the weak cold front) with highs generally in the mid to upper 30s. Highs Friday and Sunday look to be about 5 degrees warmer. Although the lack of moisture should keep us generally dry there will be a chance of some light rain/snow showers over Delmarva Friday evening/night as the the weak prefrontal trough attempts to draw some limited moisture into the area. However given how weak the front and associated forcing is don't expect much with this and limited PoPs to Chc. Otherwise do expect a fair amount of cloud cover over the southern 1/2-2/3rds of the area late Friday with Saturday also featuring a good amount of strato-cumulus given the well-mixed boundary layer some moisture in the 800-850 layer.

Monday through Wednesday . By the start of next week synoptic pattern shifts to what has largely been the default pattern this winter . a western Atlantic ridge with upstream troughing over the Central US. This will result in a storm track north and west of the area which will favor warmer temperatures and primarily rain events. At this time details are a bit lacking, but a system does look to track over the Great Lakes Monday PM into Tuesday with a secondary system possibly on its heels on Wednesday. Temperatures will only be a couple degrees above normal Monday but should increase into the low to mid 60s by Wednesday as SW flow increases in association with the aforementioned storm systems.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . All TAF sites should see a return to VFR conditions by 12Z. Mid level clouds around 4000 to 5000 ft are possible through the day, but will likely be scattered. Increasing W winds with sustained speeds around 20 knot and gusts 30 to 35 knots developing. Some gusts closer to 40 knots are possible, especially at KACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR conditions expected. Westerly winds diminishing slightly from today, though gusts near 25 kt still possible overnight. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Friday-Saturday . VFR with westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots Friday and 20 knots Saturday. A brief period of MVFR CIGs may be possible at RDG and ABE and points north and west Saturday as a disturbance passes across the region. Moderate confidence on winds, low confidence on MVFR CIGs.

Sunday . VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots and gusts to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through tonight. Westerly wind gusts near 40 kt are possible. Winds will diminish somewhat tonight, but still remain in gale force. The strong winds will also result in rough seas, however with the offshore wind component wave heights will be limited closer to the coast.

Outlook .

Friday . Winds are expected to subside further, with gusts below gale force expected on the Delaware Bay near sunrise Friday morning, and on the Atlantic coastal waters by late Friday morning. Conditions should subside below SCA by Friday night.

Saturday . Sub SCA conditions for much of the day however westerly wind gusts may exceed 25 kts by the evening into Saturday night. Seas 3-4 ft.

Sunday . Winds should diminish below SCA criteria by Sunday morning with gusts 15-20kts and seas 3-4ft.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Carr/Johnson Near Term . Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/Johnson Marine . Carr/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi57 min W 28 G 45 41°F 43°F997.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi45 min W 27 G 35 42°F 997.3 hPa (+4.7)35°F
44091 30 mi45 min 44°F7 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi57 min 41°F 43°F997.1 hPa
MHRN6 33 mi57 min WSW 21 G 28
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi57 min W 29 G 36 41°F 996.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi57 min 40°F 42°F997 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi57 min WNW 20 G 28 40°F 42°F999.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi55 min 23 G 27 44°F 44°F7 ft996.1 hPa (+3.8)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi57 min WNW 21 G 35 41°F 42°F996 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi69 min W 18 G 26 40°F 40°F998.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi49 minW 18 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy40°F32°F73%998.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ20 mi1.8 hrsW 23 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Windy40°F33°F77%997.5 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ24 mi49 minW 19 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy41°F36°F82%999.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4S5CalmE4SE4E4SE5E4E5E4NE3NE6NE6NE6NE5NE7NE3CalmN4N5NE6NE5NE3E5
2 days agoSW4CalmCalm3SE6S8SE7S7SE7S7S6S4S6S7S7S8S4SW4S3S4SW3S4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:34 AM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:52 PM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.50.70.20.312.13.13.84.24.23.72.71.60.70.10.10.71.72.83.64.14.23.9

Tide / Current Tables for Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Route 35 bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:45 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:57 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:21 PM EST     3.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.70.80.30.20.61.42.33.13.53.73.52.81.80.90.300.31.122.93.43.63.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.