Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:09PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:17 AM EDT (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:28PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1216 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Showers likely, then a slight chance of showers late.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 1216 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A low pressure area will track offshore tonight. High pressure will build in Monday and crest over the area Tuesday morning before weakening. A cold front attached to low pressure in canada will cross the area later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another high will affect the weather for Wednesday and into Friday. Late during the week, another disturbance will move towards the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon-by-the-Sea , NJ
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location: 40.18, -73.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210059
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
859 pm edt Sun oct 20 2019

Synopsis
A low pressure area will track offshore tonight. High pressure will
build in Monday and crest over the area Tuesday morning before
weakening. A cold front attached to low pressure in canada will
cross the area later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another high will
affect the weather for Wednesday and into Friday. Late during the
week, another disturbance will move towards the area.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Winds have begun to subside, and peak wind gusts are now less
than 40 mph. Therefore, cancelled the wind advisory for sussex
county delaware and CAPE may county new jersey.

Also made adjustments to pops as the rain continues to diminish
in coverage over our region. Expect that we should see dry
conditions across the area by 2 am edt.

Dew point depressions are already quite low, and although we
will see a wind shift to northerly overnight, significant dry
air advection is not expected until late tonight at the
earliest. This, combined with the wet ground and clearing skies
could lead to patchy fog development. The one factor working
against fog development is wind speeds, which will still be
quite breezy along the coast until very late tonight. Given all
the factors in favor of fog, I don't think it will be enough to
completely preclude fog development, though it may limit the fog
from becoming dense and or widespread.

Because of the low dew point depressions, we are not expecting
temperatures to drop off too much overnight from Sunday afternoon.

Lows tonight are expected to be in the 40s and lower 50s across the
region.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Monday will be a brief respite from the active weather pattern as a
surface high propagates directly over the region leading to
tranquil and dry weather for the region. Once the fog dissipates in
the morning, we should have mostly sunny conditions through the day.

Thus, despite northerly low level flow, temperatures are expected to
recover into the 60s for most locations, with highs near normal.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
An upper air pattern featuring faster flow and more energy develops
across the CONUS with a large broad trough moving into the plains
and then weakening as it slides east. A ridge tries to develop
across the east coast late week before another trough deepens across
the great lakes.

Temperatures... During the week, temperatures will not vary from
normal readings by very much. Normals for the delaware valley this
time of year feature highs in the mid 60s with lows in the upper
40s. Across the N W areas, normals are 6 to 8 degrees cooler than
the delaware valley normals. Friday will probably be the warmest day
with highs 2 or 3 degrees above normal. The overnight period
Wednesday will be cool with mid upper 30s across the north and
low mid 40s elsewhere. More frost across the N W areas is possible
then.

Precipitation... There are two periods during the long range which
will have the greatest chances for rain. First, a slow moving cold
front will cross the middle atlantic later Tuesday and into Tuesday
night. This should bring some light rains across most areas during
the period. A weak low may form along the front across delmarva. If
so, this could delay the ending time somewhat. Either way Wednesday
will be nice after perhaps some morning clouds.

Another system may arrive at the end of the work week and persist
into Saturday. The 12z runs of the ec and GFS differ quite a bit
with the details of the system. Nonetheless, it's possible that
this could bring another opportunity for some rains across the
area. The GFS shows that the low could tap into some gulf of
mexico moisture, so the potential for a soaker exits during the
first part of next weekend. Chc pops in the fcst at this point.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Mainly sub-vfr conditions are expected for tonight, with
most areas seeing a slow trend towards improving conditions as the
night GOES on. Mainly ifr or low end MVFR expected through midnight
near and south of phl, with a trend towardsVFR by 12z. Out west,
forecast confidence is a little lower. Expecting mainly MVFR
conditions initially, though periods ofVFR are possible especially
towards the 04z to 07z time frame. There is then a chance for
another period of visibility restrictions due to fog, mainly near
rdg and abe. Overall, moderate confidence on both trends and timing
in the tafs.

Monday... Patchy fog near rdg and abe could linger through 13z, but
once it dissipates,VFR conditions are expected through the day.

Northerly winds will veer to easterly or even east-southeasterly
through the day, but wind speeds should be less than 10 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. Increasing clouds late.

Tue Tue night... Lower CIGS and vsbys with occasional showers.

Wed thru fri... MostlyVFR.

Marine
The remnant low of nestor moves into the carolina coast this
afternoon, and then out to sea tonight.

Small craft advisory conditions have already developed on much of
the waters. Gales force gusts are expected to develop soon on the
delaware coastal waters and the southern nj coastal waters by this
evening. We have seen a few gale gusts already in the vicinity of
lewes and CAPE henlopen. Therefore, the gale warning was expanded to
include the lower delaware bay.

Sca and gales are expected to continue for most, if not all of
tonight, though winds are expected to gradually diminish overnight.

By Monday morning, winds and waves should be below SCA criteria on
the delaware bay. On the atlantic coastal waters, SCA conditions,
primarily for elevated seas, will continue through the day on Monday.

Outlook...

mon night... Sub-sca. Fair.

Tue... Sub-sca. Showers.

Tue night into Wed morning... SCA possible. Showers Tue night.

Wed afternoon thru thu... Sub-sca. Fair.

Fri... Winds and seas building. Showers possible late.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Monday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz450-451.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz430.

Gale warning until 2 am edt Monday for anz431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Davis o'brien o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi27 min NNE 21 G 27 56°F 62°F5 ft1013.6 hPa53°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi47 min NNE 9.9 G 16 54°F 58°F1014.3 hPa
44091 30 mi17 min 63°F11 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi47 min 54°F 60°F1015 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi47 min NNE 15 G 19 54°F 1014.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi47 min 54°F 62°F1015 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi47 min NNE 4.1 G 7 53°F 56°F1015.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi27 min NNE 23 G 27 58°F 62°F7 ft1011.9 hPa (-1.2)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi47 min ENE 11 G 18 54°F 61°F1015.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi41 min N 2.9 G 8 53°F 56°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ20 mi77 minVar 510.00 miOvercast53°F53°F100%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5E5SE5E7SE5SE8SE10E8SE12SE10
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1 day agoW4NW5NW5W5NW4NW3W3NW4NW5NW5NW9NW833E7E6E5SE6SE4SE3SE4SE5SE3SE5
2 days agoE3N3NE3CalmCalmE3NW3NW4W3W3W5SW8SW8W8W11
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.93.83.22.31.510.91.11.72.73.74.44.74.64.13.12.21.410.70.81.42.3

Tide / Current Tables for Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Route 35 bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:42 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:50 PM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.43.43.12.31.610.80.91.222.83.644.13.93.22.31.510.70.611.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.