Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avon-by-the-Sea, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:00PM Monday August 10, 2020 8:40 PM EDT (00:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:41PMMoonset 12:38PM Illumination 55% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 703 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft this evening, then 2 ft or less. Areas of fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Areas of fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of tstms.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 703 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak area of high pressure will shift offshore through tonight. A cold front will approach the area later Tuesday and Wednesday, then it is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. SEveral weak ripples of low pressure will develop and track along this front through the weekend, as high pressure builds across new england over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon-by-the-Sea , NJ
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location: 40.18, -73.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 110033 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 833 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of high pressure will translate offshore tonight. A cold front will approach the area later Tuesday and Wednesday, then it is expected to stall and eventually wash out in the vicinity of our area late this week. Several weak ripples of low pressure will develop and track along this front through the weekend, as high pressure builds across New England.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. This evening weak convection from earlier has come to an end with mostly clear skies across the area. The main concern tonight will be the potential for fog formation. Synoptic flow remains relatively weak as of current with a wave across New England exiting the region to the east. To our west, another shortwave is quickly approaching and is forecast to pull northeast towards Ontario/ Quebec Tuesday morning. The main question remains how much fog will we observe overnight. Compared to yesterday evening at this time, dewpoint depressions are a couple of degrees higher with a sea breeze having just made it to PHI. The crossover temperatures also appear to be in the upper 60s which looks like it will be hard to come by. The approaching wave might also provide just enough mixing to prevent fog development. The GFS, HRRR, and SREF don't show to much in the way of fog, while the NAM and all of its derivatives show an abundance of fog. Overall have lowered the chance of fog.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. A similar day Tuesday as on Monday. Areas of fog should mostly lift by 8 or 9 AM. Light southerly flow continues along the periphery of low amplitude western Atlantic ridging. Air mass temperatures remain about the same on Tuesday as on Monday. So we should again take aim at the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs. With the continued weak southerly flow, low level moisture remains abundant, and it will be a humid day with dew points running in the low 70s. While hot and muggy, this temperature/dew point combination still leaves us below Heat Advisory thresholds.

Like on Monday, there is little synoptic lift but also little convective inhibition on Tuesday. So once again, should see diurnal cumulus develop and probably some scattered showers and storms especially along the sea and bay breezes. Expect coverage to be similar to or slightly greater than on Monday with a little more moisture in place. Much of the hi res guidance is showing Delaware in particular as having a better chance of showers and storms, so have added some higher end chc PoP values in there. Lower end chc and slgt chc values most elsewhere. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible in any storms, but again, an isolated threat overall.

Also on Tuesday, a cold front will begin to approach the area from the west. This should lead to scattered storm development over central PA, however the better frontal forcing does not make it into our area Tuesday. By late in the afternoon or more likely the evening, some of the showers or storms from further out west may make it into the western zones, but no severe weather is anticipated. Overall, another typical summer day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Summary . A humid airmass remains in place for much of the time frame, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least late this week.

Synoptic Overview . The general pattern over the CONUS will be fairly typical of mid-summer through most of the long term. A prominent 500 mb ridge will be centered over the Southwest U.S., while a second ridge will be centered just off the U.S. Southeast Coast. North of these ridges, a train of generally weak short wave ridges and troughs will progress across the northern U.S. and Canada. There is some hint of a more amplified trough approaching the Eastern U.S. early next week but uncertainty naturally increases by this time.

At the surface, a front associated with a Canadian low will approach our area towards the middle of the week. Per usual in the warm season this front will more or less stall in the vicinity of our area as the low moves well to our northeast and high pressure builds in its wake over eastern Canada ahead of a short wave ridge. The overall pattern gets more uncertain late week as this boundary oscillates in our general vicinity and various weak waves of low pressure develop and track along the boundary.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday . The cold front will approach the area from the northwest, with some shower and thunderstorm development by the afternoon as moisture/instability pools over our area near and south of the boundary. Speaking of moisture, it will be humid heat indices once again however with the expectation of more clouds and some convection the temperatures should be a little cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday . The boundary will be stalled in our general vicinity (although the thermal/moisture gradient will begin to wash out) through this period. Although the exact placement of the boundary and the track of any associated frontal waves is uncertain, in general this period looks rather unsettled with storms possible every day with a maximum in precipitation chances in the diurnal convective window (e.g. the afternoon). The GFS/ECMWF both depict PWATs over 2 inches for our area over more or less this entire time period, and that moisture combined with a nearly stationary focus for precipitation will at least warrant monitoring from a flood potential perspective as we move forward. Although we will retain the higher dew points, abundant cloud cover/precipitation, and eventually a shift to onshore flow should keep high temperatures lower (generally low to mid 80s).

For Sunday and Monday . Uncertainty increases by Sunday some guidance depicts a fairly strong low (initially cold-core) developing on the boundary and moving offshore (taking most of the precipitation with it), while some other guidance keeps us in the unsettled pattern for another day. Ultimately just went Chc PoPs and near-climo temperatures given the uncertainty.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening . VFR with dry conditions. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt, but more southerly or southeasterly wind near the coast with a sea breeze. High confidence.

Tonight . Initially, VFR. Main concern tonight will be the potential for fog formation. Overall the threat for fog formation has decreased with this TAF issuance as dewpoint depressions remain higher than initially forecast. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence in overall trends, low confidence in the extent of fog.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly after 18z. Winds mainly south or south-southwest at 5 to 10 kt, but will back from the southeast at the coast in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook . Tuesday night and Wednesday . The chance of restrictions due to showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday afternoon, particularly for ABE, RDG, and the I-95 terminals. Southerly winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Thursday through Saturday . Periodic restrictions possible through this period with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly-Southeasterly winds mostly 10 knots or less. High confidence on storms; low confidence on timing and intensity.

MARINE. Through Tuesday . Sub-SCA conditions are expected with seas 1 to 3 ft and winds mainly from the S or SW with speeds 10 to 15 kt. Fog development is possible tonight.

Outlook . Tuesday night through Saturday . Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday, the increasing onshore winds will build the seas and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents . There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents through Tuesday. The wind is expected to favor the southeast and south around 10 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr/Gorse Near Term . Haines Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Carr/Gorse Aviation . Gorse/Haines Marine . Carr/Gorse/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi53 min S 9.9 G 11 83°F 80°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi31 min S 16 G 19 73°F1014.2 hPa
44091 30 mi75 min 71°F2 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi53 min 90°F 80°F
MHRN6 33 mi53 min SW 7 G 8
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi53 min S 12 G 13 84°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi53 min 85°F 78°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi53 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 81°F 77°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi31 min SSW 12 G 14 73°F1015.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 11 81°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi65 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 88°F 75°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi45 minS 610.00 miFair83°F79°F88%1015.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ20 mi41 minno data10.00 miFair0°F0°F%1014.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ24 mi1.7 hrsS 1110.00 miFair84°F73°F72%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW5SW5SW7SW3W4S3S6SE6S9S10S7SE9S6S6
1 day agoSE6CalmCalmS4SW3SW4SW4SW4W4SW4W3W3W654CalmS5SE8SE9S12S9S7S5S4
2 days agoE9E8SW4CalmN4N3NE3N3N34NE4NE3NE3NE5N5NE7E7E8E7SE6SE6SE7SE6S3

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:24 AM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.13.52.51.610.70.81.42.23.13.74.24.343.32.41.81.41.21.422.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Route 35 bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.63.32.61.710.70.611.62.433.53.73.73.22.41.81.31.11.11.52.12.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.