Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shark River Hills, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:32PM Friday December 13, 2019 9:07 AM EST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:01PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 640 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Saturday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through late Saturday night...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of drizzle with a slight chance of light rain early this morning, then a chance of rain late this morning and early afternoon. Rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Seas 4 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain early in the evening.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
ANZ400 640 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. An upper level trough will dig into the southeast today pushing a low pressure system through the carolinas into the mid- atlantic on Saturday. The system pushes north and east by Sunday as dry weather makes a brief return. Heading into the work week another low pressure system moves across the tennessee valley Monday and will start to impact the region Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then looks to settle into the region Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shark River Hills CDP, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 130922 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 422 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level trough will dig into the southeast today pushing a low pressure system through the Carolinas into the Mid- Atlantic on Saturday. The system pushes north and east by Sunday as dry weather makes a brief return. Heading into the work week another low pressure system moves across the Tennessee Valley Monday and will start to impact the region Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then looks to settle into the region Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Radar returns early this morning are starting to show some moisture working its way up towards the Delmarva coast. While it looks light in nature, its continued path is on track to bring some very light rain or drizzle to coastal Delaware and portions of southern New Jersey this morning.

A slightly harder issue to discern this morning is whether or not moisture can make it inland and into the colder reaches of our forecast area before temperatures start to rise today.

Some of the higher resolution guidance continues to show a brief period of possible freezing rain/drizzle across northern New Jersey and the southern Poconos. However, coverage remains spotty and confidence is low that we see much if any fall this morning. Therefore, will not issue any winter weather headlines.

Surface high pressure is over the GUlf of Maine early this morning and will move into the Canadian Maritimes today. A shortwave will rotate through the mid-level flow and cross our region this afternoon.

The more tractable part of the forecast today is the rain pushing in from the west/southwest through the afternoon and evening. The rain will start off fairly light across the region and expect it will be raining throughout the forecast area by late afternoon. The heavy rain looks to hold off until later in the day, more likely holding off through the daytime and picking up in intensity as we head later into the evening.

The warm air advection won't really be strong today but we should see gradual warming take place across the region. With an easterly flow, it can sometimes hinder the warming but the flow at the surface appears to be pretty weak through the day and this should allow for some of the warmer air to make its way up into the area by late in the day. Overall, today will be fairly close or slightly about the seasonal normals with highs in the 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. The low will push into the region tonight and then cross directly overhead on Saturday and then push off to the north by late afternoon/evening. Periods of heavy rain overnight into early Saturday can be expected with rain starting to ease up some later in the day Saturday. PWATs remain in the 1.0-1.3" range which is on the high side for mid-December. Running through the numbers, it still looks like a basin average rainfall of 1.00-1.50", which should keep us out of any widespread flooding concerns. The ground is wet but we should be able to handle up to 2.00" of rainfall across our basins without any big concerns, although as the heavy rain develops we will need to monitor in case any more robust pockets develop. Areas that typically see problems in heavy rain and/or places where the leaves have clogged the storm drains will remain an issue.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Saturday night through Sunday will be fairly mild as warm air advection pushes in behind a departing coastal low pressure system. While the sensible weather will be dried out we'll start to see some strong winds develop over the ocean waters. Its certainly a question of how strong the pressure gradient develops and thus how strong the winds gusts are. At this point, because the potential for Gales does exist I felt comfortable issuing a Gale watch but it wouldn't surprise me if wind gusts ended up a tad lower than Gales with may just a few isolated gusts of Gale Force.

Sunday heights will be rising and brief high pressure develops. This will lead to temps warming into the low to mid 40s for high temps which is fairly close to seasonable norms. High pressure crests over the region on Monday and then starts to exit the region as a surface low develops over the Tennessee Valley and pushes through the Mid Atlantic. The challenge with this system will be the strong warm air advection aloft brought on by the 1026mb High pressure system sitting out over the Atlantic. This will lead to warm air at the coast with temps in the 30s to upper 20s in the Poconos as precip starts falling. Because Mother Nature isn't very tractable, I've opted to initially show snow quickly changing over to rain but if current thermal profiles hold we'll likely have periods of snow becoming freezing rain across portions of northern New Jersey heading into Tuesday morning. By mid morning Tuesday all precip should be falling as rain as the warm air advection brings temps into the 40s to low 50s for max temps just ahead of a cold front.

The associated cold front sweeps through Tuesday night and the upper level trough passes through on Wednesday and a broad dome of high pressure returns for the middle of the work week. Anticipate quiet weather with seasonable normal temps from Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions to start this morning with ceilings dropping to MVFR around 12-14Z. Conditions will continue to deteriorate, dropping down to IFR by this afternoon as rain moves into the terminals. East to northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots. High confidence overall with low confidence on timing of MVFR ceilings.

Tonight . IFR conditions expected with periods of LIFR possible as rain moves through the terminals. The rain could be heavy at times causing the visibilities to drop quickly. Light east to northeast winds early becoming east to southeast late.

Saturday . MVFR/IFR conditions expected. Moderate to heavy rain. East to southeast winds will turn to the southwest on Saturday. Winds will be around 5 to 10 knots and increasing through the afternoon to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Sunday . MVFR conditions trending to VFR during the morning. Breezy with westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts from 25 to 30 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night . VFR conditions expected with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. High clouds will be on the increase by Monday morning as another storm system begins to close in on the region. Moderate confidence.

Monday through Tuesday . VFR initially as a mix of rain and snow moves into the region. Precip quickly becomes widespread rain heading into Tuesday. West to northwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence on timing and precip type early Tuesday morning.

MARINE. Seas will gradually build through the day today and are expected to reach 5 feet tonight. Winds will remain around 10 to 15 knots out of the east with gusts around 20 knots. With seas reaching 5 feet tonight, we have gone ahead and issued a Small Craft Advisory for the ocean waters starting at 10pm.

Winds will turn more to the south and then southwest on Saturday increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots starting late afternoon/early evening. Seas will remain elevated through Saturday.

Outlook . Saturday night . Small Craft Advisory winds out of the southwest will prevail. There is the potential for a Gale force gusts early Sunday morning. Seas remain high from 5 to 8 feet.

Sunday . Gale force gusts possible out of the west from 30 to 35 knots through the afternoon. Seas ranging from 4 to 6 feet.

Sunday night . Small Craft Advisory winds out of the west- northwest with gusts near or exceeding 25 knots. Seas from 2 to 4 feet.

Monday and Monday night . Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by early Monday morning and will drop to around 1 to 3 feet through the day. Winds will generally be westerly becoming northwest around 10 to 15 knots Monday and then gradually weaken overnight.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ454-455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Meola Short Term . Meola Long Term . Deal Aviation . Deal/Meola Marine . Deal/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi50 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 43°F1030.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 22 mi38 min ESE 14 G 16 49°F 1029.8 hPa43°F
44091 32 mi38 min 50°F5 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi50 min 35°F 44°F1030.4 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi56 min NNE 5.1 G 6
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi56 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 35°F 1029.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi50 min 41°F 45°F1030 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi50 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 40°F1030.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi92 min E 4.1 G 6 34°F 39°F1029.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi50 min ESE 4.1 G 7 36°F 43°F1030.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi78 min SE 18 G 21 51°F 51°F5 ft1029.5 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi12 minN 05.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1030.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ18 mi68 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F30°F85%1029.3 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi12 minNE 53.00 miLight Rain36°F0°F%1030.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6N8N3E4E4E5E3E3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4CalmSE5E5CalmCalmCalm
1 day ago--N5NW4W4SW6W6SW6SW6W8W7W8W11W12W12W7W8W7NW12NW9NW9NW9NW6N5N9
2 days agoSW10
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W8W8W9W5NW6NW6------

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, Shark River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EST     4.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:32 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:29 PM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.1-0.20.31.52.83.94.54.74.43.52.31.20.3-0.3-0.30.31.42.53.33.73.73.22.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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