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LEZ144 Expires:202311292115;;603468 Fzus51 Kcle 291443 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 943 am est Wed nov 29 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-292115- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 943 am est Wed nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy late this morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 300205 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 905 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry and warming conditions expected into Thursday, with above normal temperatures expected. today into Thursday while southwest winds allow for a warming trend over the next couple of days. An upper level disturbance will bring widespread rain to the region Thursday night and Friday, with dry conditions expected again on Saturday. Another chance for precipitation returns for Sunday, with near to above normal temperatures through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Another quiet weather night is forecast across the Ohio Valley.
Aside from some high clouds overhead, skies stay mostly clear.
Winds remain steady overnight in the 5-10 mph range as the area is stuck between surface high pressure to southeast and a low to the north. Southerly flow leads to milder lows tonight- near 30.



SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
W to SW flow continues during the day on Thursday, with increasing winds gusting to 20-25 mph as gradient increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Temperatures will rise to the low to mid 50s. As the shortwave approaches, thickening high level and then mid level clouds will filter into the region by mid to late afternoon. Boundary layer remains pretty dry, so still expecting any precipitation chances to hold off until Thursday night.

As the surface high pressure gives way to the approaching shortwave, precip potential increases, primarily in the form of increasing isentropic lift spreading across eastern Indiana and Western Ohio. The greater potential for more widespread rain begins after about 03-06z Friday morning, as forcing and deeper moisture increases. Overnight lows remain above freezing, in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A mild, wet pattern will be ongoing Friday as shortwave energy ejects northeastward through the Ohio Valley. The latest global models are starting to show the potential for a mid-level dry slot Friday afternoon behind the morning rain... but for now have kept likely PoPs into the evening hours due to timing and positional uncertainty. We may end up needing to lower late Friday rain probabilities if the trend continues.

The surface wave and accompanying frontal system moves through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Since the cold air looks to stay well to the north with this system, temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year. Low clouds will likely be present through the day on Saturday. A mid-level shortwave spinning through the Great Lakes will keep a chance of rain in the forecast on Sunday.

The pattern may start to shift cooler next week as northwesterly flow develops aloft and longwave troughing begins to form across the eastern United States. Details on timing of precipitation is sketchy without a well-defined system to focus on. The stronger signal for storminess remains across the western United States during this time.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure remains southeast of the Ohio Valley for the TAF period while a low pressure system moves through Canada. Skies likely stay clr/sct in this synoptic setup through 1800z Thursday before SCT and BKN lower level VFR clouds build in from the west Thursday evening.

Southwesterly winds remain in the 5-10 knot range overnight before increasing to 10-20 knots after 1200z Thursday. A few gusts around 25 knots are possible Thursday afternoon. Any MVFR ceilings or rain chances do not arrive until after the current TAF period.

OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday.
MVFR ceilings possible Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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