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LEZ144 Expires:202310040230;;440492 Fzus51 Kcle 031946 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 346 pm edt Tue oct 3 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-040230- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 346 pm edt Tue oct 3 2023
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 68 degrees, off cleveland 69 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 040541 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 141 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Persistent high pressure will allow dry weather through Wednesday. The threat for showers and a few thunderstorms returns Thursday and Friday along a cold front. Much cooler weather can be expected for the weekend behind the front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Clear skies will be found overnight with some valley fog expected to develop before daybreak.

Under light winds, lows will drop to within a few degrees of 60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
High cloud cover will begin to stream in from the west on Wednesday, thickening to an overcast layer overnight.

Highs will be near 85 degrees with mostly sunny skies and light southerly wind.

Overnight lows will bump 3-5 degrees higher from tonight's values. Readings will range from the low 60s in the Scioto Valley and Hocking Hills, to the mid 60s over west central Ohio.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A major pattern shift is on tap for the region as we progress into the long term period, the beginning of which will arrive in the form of scattered SHRA through the day on Thursday ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary, which will eventually work its way through the area during the daytime on Friday.

For Thursday, broad deep-layer SW flow will become established in the OH Vly as a midlevel disturbance translates to the NE within this flow stretching from the lower MS Rvr Vly through the Great Lakes region. Although the airmass will initially be relatively dry, moisture advection will be well underway through the afternoon/evening. This, combined with larger-scale ascent, should promote the development of fairly widespread SHRA activity, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, too. Do think that the thunder chances are relatively low (if they evolve at all)
at this juncture, but have maintained slight chance of TSRA across EC IN and WC OH Thursday afternoon/evening for now. But given trends and sounding analysis from a variety of solutions, thunder should be fairly limited in coverage locally. This holds true, too, for SE parts of the area Friday afternoon, owing to meager LL/deeper-layer instby.

Coverage of SHRA should be fairly widespread during the day Thursday into Thursday night, continuing in at least a scattered fashion into the day on Friday, especially for locales near/E of I-71 ahead of the front. And until that front finally moves through, above normal temps will continue (despite the widespread clouds/pcpn). Highs on Thursday should reach into the mid/upper 70s (W) and even lower 80s (E) before falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s by Friday morning. Although there are some timing differences to be worked out, with the front near the I-71 corridor by early afternoon Friday, NE KY and south-central OH should reach into the mid 70s, with cooler air already filtering in back to the W in EC IN and WC OH where highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Fairly robust CAA should evolve Friday evening/night everywhere as temps dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s by daybreak Saturday.

An extended period of below normal temps is expected Saturday through early next week as the tremendously large/deep low pressure (~ -2.5 sigma) meanders about the ern Great Lakes region and interior NE CONUS. Ensemble and deterministic data has trended perhaps to a slightly deeper/further W solution with this lumbering low for the weekend into early next week, which would act to not only keep the cooler/chillier air around for a bit longer, but would also likely translate to a cloudier weekend/early next week, depending on the exact positioning of the low. Nevertheless, strong/deep-layer NW flow off the lakes should, at the very least, keep clouds and perhaps a daily chance for a few SHRA in the fcst through the weekend. Breezy conditions are on tap for Friday and Saturday due to steepening LL lapse rates and more robust vertical mixing in the LLs. Gusts to 20-25kts are expected both Friday and Saturday afternoon/evenings.

Should winds relax and skies clear enough Sunday or Monday morning, some patchy frost may be possible.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mid level ridge axis will shift east today with the flow backing southwesterly tonight. A southerly low level flow will exit on the backside of sprawling surface high pressure along the east coast. Mostly clear skies overnight with some valley fog likely at KLUK this morning.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast with an increase in high level clouds tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibility possible Thursday night into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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