Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Galena, OH

KEY MESSAGES

1) More active weather is expected from Wednesday through the rest of the week, with the potential for thunderstorms, gusty winds on Friday, and cooler conditions over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1)

As surface high pressure drifts through the southeastern states through Tuesday, with its northern extent impacting the Ohio Valley, dry weather is expected to continue. A weak disturbance will move through the Great Lakes on Tuesday morning, but any light precipitation is likely to dissipate before reaching the ILN forecast area.

A more active weather pattern is expected to develop by Wednesday. A surface front will set up west-to-east across the northern Ohio Valley / southern Great Lakes, with the ILN CWA initially in the warm sector on Wednesday. The flow of moisture into the region will increase, around a mid-level ridge over the southeastern states.
Chances for rain and storms will begin to increase on Wednesday, with some diurnal component to coverage likely, and the greatest chances occurring Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Model soundings are fairly moist, but with weak flow and a lack of confidence across the model suite in instability, the severe threat is uncertain as of now.
Some heavy rain could occur given the moist environment and potential for a few rounds of storms as the frontal zone slowly moves southward.

Some additional rain (and possibly convection) will be possible Thursday into Thursday night, before a well-defined cold front moves through the region some time Friday -- likely in the early morning hours.

Temperatures will likely peak out on Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, before gradually falling the next few days. A more significant drop in temperatures is expected behind the cold front on Friday, leading to temperatures below normal over the weekend. Lows may get into the 30s on Saturday morning, and will almost certainly drop well into the 30s on Sunday morning, so some frost potential may exist.

Finally, some gusty winds may be possible Friday behind the cold front -- with a well-mixed boundary layer and a tight pressure gradient. Not much confidence yet on headline-criteria winds, but current projections suggest some gusts above 30kts will be possible.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fog and low ceilings have dissipated, leaving VFR conditions through the TAF period. The exception will be at KLUK where some MVFR/IFR valley fog is possible early Tuesday morning.

Some high clouds will be possible over the next 24 hours. Winds today will generally remain 10 knots or less. Winds on Tuesday will be out of the southwest, and may have some gusts to around 15-20 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, and again on Thursday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible from Wednesday through Friday. Gusty winds are possible on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.