Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Galena, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Low pressure over northwest Indiana will move east to northwest Ohio by sunrise. An associated low level jet out ahead of the low and its trailing cold front will focus its low level convergence at its nose, which will be mainly north of the region. Thus, only a stray shower or storm may brush the far north, otherwise dry conditions are expected.

For today, the low will move east across northern Ohio then into Pennsylvania. The lack of deep moisture along and ahead of the front, as well as sufficient low level convergence, should allow the front to pass through dry as it moves southeast across the area. A tightening pressure gradient, along with diurnal mixing and CAA developing behind the front will make for a breezy to locally wind day. Sustained winds will be in the 20 to 25 mph with gusts between 30 and 35 mph. It will still get quite warm in our eastern/southern zones before the front passes by. Highs will range from near 70 in our far northwest, to the mid 70s to lower 80s generally along and southeast of I-71.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
During the early evening behind the cold front, we may see a brief respite in the gustiness. Then, a secondary cold front/trough is expected to push southeast across the ares from mid evening into the early morning hours of Monday. This boundary will bring another round of CAA. In addition, the pressure gradient will tighten once again. And with steep low level lapse rates, wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will be possible as stronger winds aloft are brought down to the surface via momentum transfer. In terms of rain chances, not much is expected with the front itself, except across the far northern zones where mid level s/wv energy may aid in a few showers. As we head toward the morning hours, the gustiness should diminish some. It will be much colder with lows bottoming out in the mid and upper 40s.

On Monday, a large scale mid level trough is expected to carve itself out over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. In the CAA pattern across the warmer waters of the Great Lakes, considerable stratocumulus clouds will develop. In addition, models indicate that a surface trough will push into the northern zones during the day. This may bring enough forcing with the shallow instability to bring a chance of showers there.
Otherwise, it will generally be mostly cloudy. Some winds may gust up to 25 mph, generally into the early afternoon hours.
Highs will be sharply colder (and below normal) compared to this past weekend. Highs will range from 55 north to 60 south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A powerful shortwave works through the base of the broader longwave trough Monday night, supplying a reinforced chance of showery conditions. The shortwave continues southward Tuesday, focusing the chance of showers south of I-70. Cloud cover, northerly winds, and light precipitation combine to significant limit heating Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures struggle to climb with most locations in the 50s. Can't rule out a few cooler spots remaining in the upper 40s. Some low probabilities (10-30%) for sub-50 degree high temperatures are present in the greater Columbus area Tuesday and Wednesday.

Drier air works into the region Tuesday night with high pressure building in from the west. Some lingering cloud cover and elevated winds do add some uncertainty to the frost potential Wednesday morning, but there will likely be the need for an advisory across the area as confidence grows. Confidence is much higher the following night with high pressure dominating the region. The NBM, and current forecast sit within the cooler side of the guidance so no major changes were made to the forecast. Efficient cooling justifies this cooler approach, and a freeze watch may be needed at some point. NBM probability for temperatures below 32 degrees currently sits at 40-60% for the eastern half (east of I-75) of the forecast area.

A deep ridge builds over the region Thursday and persists into the first part of the weekend. With the high pressure to the east, conditions promote abundant sunshine and a warming trend back to normal.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LLWS will end after 14Z once diurnal mixing commences.

For today, low pressure will move east across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania. A trailing cold front from the low will push east/southeast through our area. With a continued tight pressure gradient and with diurnal mixing, sustained winds will increase between 15 and 20 knots with gusts between 25 and 30 knots.
Winds will veer to the west and northwest once the front passes by. VFR conditions will continue as the lack of deep moisture and forcing will allow the cold front to pass through dry. Some FEW-SCT cumulus clouds will develop along and behind the cold front in the developing CAA pattern.

For tonight, a large scale mid level trough will begin to carve itself out across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. An embedded mid level disturbances may bring a chance of showers north of the terminals. Models also suggest that a trough axis and an additional CAA push will bring another period of gusty winds from the northwest. These gusts could be between 25 and 30 knots. The stronger gusts should diminish some by 12Z. Also in the CAA pattern, (colder air moving across the warmer waters of the Great Lakes) MVFR stratocumulus clouds will develop. These will move in from the north overnight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings expected into Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.