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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 916 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 41 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 082056 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 356 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Clouds will increase tonight ahead of developing low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. This system will provide scattered showers early Saturday, becoming more numerous heading into the evening associated with a cold front. High pressure and colder temperatures will arrive Sunday and continue into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Strengthening low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will shift into the Great Lakes this evening through tonight.
Persistent southwest flow ahead of the system will cause clouds to thicken overnight and keep temperatures mild, with lows in the upper 40s east to low 50s west. A few showers are possible by morning with some modest mass convergence ahead of a low level jet.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Latest guidance has come in with less precipitation on Saturday. This is especially noticeable with the orientation of the low level jet early Saturday morning being further to the west. This results in rain showers being more scattered in nature.

Beyond this, showers should increase in coverage along and ahead of the cold front late in the afternoon through the evening hours. Latest guidance brings total rainfall to the range of a half to one inch, with heaviest amounts across northeast KY into south central Ohio.

After highs in the low 60s in the warm sector Saturday afternoon, cold air advection behind the front will push low temperatures Saturday night down into the mid 30s west through mid 40s in the east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Showers may still be lingering at the beginning of the period, but should clear out fairly quickly which will keep remaining precipitation as rain. Highs will be at the start of the day in eastern counties with temperatures continuing to fall through the morning before steadying out. There is some potential for a few degree rise from morning low in western counties.

West northwest flow coming off of Lake Michigan could bring a streamer across northern counties with a few rain or snow showers into Sunday night.

High pressure will then briefly build in. A dry front will slide through the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. Another high will build in for the rest of the period. Below normal temperatures on Monday will then moderate with only a minor blip in this trend mid week in the wake of the front.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR (but breezy) conditions today under a mid-level ridge. An approaching low pressure system brings deeper moisture late tonight as ceilings lower below 3,000 feet near sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers will develop in this deeper moisture, so have included VCSH for Saturday morning time frame.
Showers increase in coverage ahead of a cold front during the extended TAF at CVG. Can't rule out thunder at this time, but haven't included TS yet due to uncertainty beyond 24 hours.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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Wilmington, OH,