Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 11:03 AM   Moonset 1:18 AM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405140815;;167715 Fzus51 Kcle 140142 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 942 pm edt Mon may 13 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-140815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 942 pm edt Mon may 13 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Isolated showers after midnight. Scattered showers late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 52 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 141059 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 659 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will slowly track across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday, bringing unsettled weather to the region.
Dry weather returns Thursday with high pressure.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Low pressure over Missouri and Arkansas is getting more organized as it moves slowly toward Kentucky. Moisture and vertical motion are increasing sporadically across our portion of the Ohio Valley, producing a band of showers that is now scraping east sections of the FA. Radar indicates that there will be lengthy lull in showers, probably until this afternoon when increasing forcing and deeper moisture coincide with daytime heating, leading to more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. There will be a marginal threat for severe weather, including the possibility for brief tornadoes, primarily over Northern Kentucky. Isolated heavy downpours are also possible from slow moving, moisture-laden cells.

Temperatures limited by cloud cover are forecast to reach the near normal upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger this evening, with isolated severe storms and heavy downpours possible. For early tonight, coverage and intensity of convection should diminish with loss of daytime heating. Later tonight through Wednesday, a resurgence of showers and thunderstorms is indicated as the low spins slowly through Kentucky. Main area of concern for this round appears to be over southeast counties that will be adjacent to the deeper moisture and short wave forcing associated with this system. Heavy downpours will continue to be possible.

Similar to Tuesday, highs on Wednesday are expected to rise to the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper low will be just east of the area at the beginning of the period but moving east. This will be in close enough proximity for some showers to still linger into Wednesday night in eastern counties. Ridging will briefly pass across the area on Thursday, but low level moisture will remain high through the day which may lead to clouds being quite stubborn to diminish.

Short wave will eject out ahead of a deepening trough in the central US and lift across the region on Thursday night. This will bring the beginning of an unsettled period. The main trough will likely move into and across the area Friday night with showers and thunderstorms possible throughout this entire period and even into Saturday.
However, guidance has been struggling with this trough with some runs occasionally deepening and closing off a low within the trough and thus slowing down progression. The operational 00Z GFS is the latest example of that. Still a large enough majority of guidance suggests that conditions will improve Saturday night and into Sunday that it seems more likely. Regardless of the speed of the trough, guidance does come into better agreement with ridging across the region by Monday.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Aviation will be impacted by low pressure tracking to Kentucky.
Scattered light showers are currently in the vicinity of TAF sites. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are forming this morning as the lower atmosphere moistens. There should be improvement back to VFR this afternoon as mixing increases.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon and evening as instability rises with daytime heating. Winds backing from south to east may remain under 10 knots through the period. MVFR conditions return near the end of the forecast as moisture continues to stream ahead of the low.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs /VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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