Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Loch Arbour, NJ
December 11, 2023 1:46 PM EST (18:46 UTC)
Sunrise 7:06AM Sunset 4:31PM Moonrise 6:49AM Moonset 4:13PM
ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 127 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SE swell 3 to 6 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. SE swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SE swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SE swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SE swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. N swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds, becoming se around 2 ft at 7 seconds after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SE swell 3 to 6 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. SE swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SE swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SE swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SE swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. N swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds, becoming se around 2 ft at 7 seconds after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ400 127 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure and a strong cold front will quickly lift out across new england toward the canadian maritime provinces through tonight. High pressure will build across the mid- atlantic through Tuesday. A weak cold front drops though the area early Wednesday. More high pressure returns for the end of the week.
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure and a strong cold front will quickly lift out across new england toward the canadian maritime provinces through tonight. High pressure will build across the mid- atlantic through Tuesday. A weak cold front drops though the area early Wednesday. More high pressure returns for the end of the week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KPHI 111556 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1056 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure and a strong cold front will quickly lift out across New England toward the Canadian Maritime Provinces through tonight. High pressure will build across the Mid- Atlantic through Tuesday. A weak cold front drops though the area early Wednesday. More high pressure returns for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Several inches of snow fell last night into early this morning over the highest elevations of the Pocono Plateau and locally around Sussex County NJ, with light coatings as far south as Chester County, outside of Allentown, and down to around the hilly terrain of Morris County NJ. Some wet flakes were observed across much of the entire area, even briefly along parts of the coastal plain just inland from the ocean. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain fell across most of the region, with heavier rain into southeast New Jersey where locally 3 to 4 inches of rainfall was recorded. Several river Flood Warnings are in effect through midday, but otherwise the Flood Watch that was in effect for our entire forecast area has been cancelled, as all the precipitation has ended, with partially clearing skies. Some streams and creeks will continue to rise, with slower responding main stems rivers following suit through Tuesday.
Otherwise, now that all the precipitation has moved out as of mid-morning, today will be cold and blustery with temperatures struggling to climb into the mid 40s. Winds have been a little slow to pick up, but will start gusting higher through late morning into early afternoon, sustained near 15-20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph possible throughout the day. Some more exposed spots like higher hilltops may gust around 40 mph. Some scattered to broken stratocumulus will likely fill back in as an upper-level trough approaches with cold air aloft, mainly north and west of I-95 this afternoon. Flurries may be found across the southern Poconos.
High pressure will build in from the southwest overnight, with diminishing winds as the gradient relaxes. Some lighter winds will linger from the west near 5-10 mph overnight as the tighter pressure gradient weakens across the region. Low temperatures will be main in the mid 20s by Tuesday morning under mostly clear skies.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Rather tranquil weather expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
High pressure continually builds in Tuesday and into Wednesday with temperatures expected to remain below climo. Highs on Tuesday will largely be in the mid 40s with mid 30s to low 40s for higher elevations. Tuesday night lows will be in the 20s with low 30s in the immediate Philly metro.
On Wednesday, an upper level trough will drop across New England and drag along a cold front across the Mid Atlantic region. Frontal passage should be mostly dry, though NW flow behind the front could set up the potential for some flurries across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Low-level thickness values will drop behind this front and introduce a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region. Daytime highs should be similar to Tuesday, but nighttime lows Wednesday night will take a further tumble, dropping temps into the low 20s. A cold NW breeze behind the front will help bring wind chill values overnight into the teens with single digits in the Poconos.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overall a quiet long term period. For Thursday, the cold air will remain, with possibly the coldest morning of the week, but as stronger surface high pressure shifts east from the Midwest across the Mid-Atlantic, skies should turn out sunny and be accompanied by fairly light winds.
Temperatures rebound to around climo on Friday, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s to around 50 for most.
High pressure will then slowly lift out across New England through Saturday with our next system beginning to approach the region late Sunday and Monday. Quite a bit of model spread at this point, so stuck closely with the consensus NBM blend during this time.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR at all TAF sites. Some local lingering MVFR around northern NJ and the Poconos into this afternoon, with some SCT/BKN 030-050 clouds building back in from northwest to southeast, possibly down to I-95 this afternoon for several hours. Northwest winds increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts near 25-30 kts. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR with clearing skies. Gusty winds diminishing quickly early this evening and tending generally westerly around 5-8 kt through the overnight. High confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR expected. WSW winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday...VFR expected. WNW winds 10 kts with gusts around 15 kts.
Thursday and Friday...VFR expected. W/NW winds around 10 kts.
MARINE
Gale Warning remains in effect for all of our coastal waters, with Delaware Bay ending at 4 PM and our ocean zones at 7 PM. To be honest though, with Ship John Shoal not even reaching 30 kt by 10 AM, and the offshore buoys struggling to get to 33 kt so far, we may cancel the warnings a little early. With increased mixing of gusts from aloft down to the surface through early this afternoon, at least portions of the ocean should continue to flirt with 35 kt 'gale force gusts', and seas remain rough around 6 to 8 ft. Fair weather today otherwise with some partial clearing skies.
For tonight, Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger, especially across the Atlantic coastal waters where elevated seas will linger near 5-7 feet while gradually diminishing overnight. Northwest winds near 20-25 kts early will diminish to near 10-15 kts late. Fair weather.
Outlook...
Tuesday...SCA criteria possible early; seas may linger around 5 feet. Winds WSW around 10 kts becoming 15 kts at night.
Wednesday...SCA criteria possible late. WNW winds 10-15 kts during the day ramp up to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts at night. Seas build to 3-5 feet.
Thursday...SCA criteria possible early before diminishing quickly through the day. WNW winds 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts in the morning subside to 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet.
Friday...No headlines expected. W winds 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 feet.
HYDROLOGY
The Flood Watch has been cancelled after rain has quickly lifted out of our region. A widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain has fallen across the area, with a localized stripe of 3 to 4 inches across the coastal plain of NJ. Main stem rivers have begun to respond as well, however widespread river flooding is will not occur, given the antecedent dry conditions. Excessive runoff will continue to result in some additional, generally minor, flooding of some low-lying areas near some of our area river, creeks and streams. Refer to the few river flood warnings in effect through midday today.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent southerly winds on Sunday have caused somewhat of a buildup of water in Barnegat Bay. Northwest winds will push the excess water into the back bays of Barnegat Bay this morning through midday along coastal Ocean County. Minor inundation on the most vulnerable roads is still possible, mainly around northern portions of the bay near Mantoloking. However, given recent trends, water levels are a little lower than expected, so it is not likely any observing gauges reach coastal flood advisory thresholds. Will keep the advisory until 1 PM to account for slight rises still occurring and some very localized minor inundation nonetheless.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ020-026.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1056 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure and a strong cold front will quickly lift out across New England toward the Canadian Maritime Provinces through tonight. High pressure will build across the Mid- Atlantic through Tuesday. A weak cold front drops though the area early Wednesday. More high pressure returns for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Several inches of snow fell last night into early this morning over the highest elevations of the Pocono Plateau and locally around Sussex County NJ, with light coatings as far south as Chester County, outside of Allentown, and down to around the hilly terrain of Morris County NJ. Some wet flakes were observed across much of the entire area, even briefly along parts of the coastal plain just inland from the ocean. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain fell across most of the region, with heavier rain into southeast New Jersey where locally 3 to 4 inches of rainfall was recorded. Several river Flood Warnings are in effect through midday, but otherwise the Flood Watch that was in effect for our entire forecast area has been cancelled, as all the precipitation has ended, with partially clearing skies. Some streams and creeks will continue to rise, with slower responding main stems rivers following suit through Tuesday.
Otherwise, now that all the precipitation has moved out as of mid-morning, today will be cold and blustery with temperatures struggling to climb into the mid 40s. Winds have been a little slow to pick up, but will start gusting higher through late morning into early afternoon, sustained near 15-20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph possible throughout the day. Some more exposed spots like higher hilltops may gust around 40 mph. Some scattered to broken stratocumulus will likely fill back in as an upper-level trough approaches with cold air aloft, mainly north and west of I-95 this afternoon. Flurries may be found across the southern Poconos.
High pressure will build in from the southwest overnight, with diminishing winds as the gradient relaxes. Some lighter winds will linger from the west near 5-10 mph overnight as the tighter pressure gradient weakens across the region. Low temperatures will be main in the mid 20s by Tuesday morning under mostly clear skies.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Rather tranquil weather expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
High pressure continually builds in Tuesday and into Wednesday with temperatures expected to remain below climo. Highs on Tuesday will largely be in the mid 40s with mid 30s to low 40s for higher elevations. Tuesday night lows will be in the 20s with low 30s in the immediate Philly metro.
On Wednesday, an upper level trough will drop across New England and drag along a cold front across the Mid Atlantic region. Frontal passage should be mostly dry, though NW flow behind the front could set up the potential for some flurries across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Low-level thickness values will drop behind this front and introduce a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region. Daytime highs should be similar to Tuesday, but nighttime lows Wednesday night will take a further tumble, dropping temps into the low 20s. A cold NW breeze behind the front will help bring wind chill values overnight into the teens with single digits in the Poconos.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overall a quiet long term period. For Thursday, the cold air will remain, with possibly the coldest morning of the week, but as stronger surface high pressure shifts east from the Midwest across the Mid-Atlantic, skies should turn out sunny and be accompanied by fairly light winds.
Temperatures rebound to around climo on Friday, with afternoon highs in the upper 40s to around 50 for most.
High pressure will then slowly lift out across New England through Saturday with our next system beginning to approach the region late Sunday and Monday. Quite a bit of model spread at this point, so stuck closely with the consensus NBM blend during this time.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR at all TAF sites. Some local lingering MVFR around northern NJ and the Poconos into this afternoon, with some SCT/BKN 030-050 clouds building back in from northwest to southeast, possibly down to I-95 this afternoon for several hours. Northwest winds increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts near 25-30 kts. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR with clearing skies. Gusty winds diminishing quickly early this evening and tending generally westerly around 5-8 kt through the overnight. High confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR expected. WSW winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday...VFR expected. WNW winds 10 kts with gusts around 15 kts.
Thursday and Friday...VFR expected. W/NW winds around 10 kts.
MARINE
Gale Warning remains in effect for all of our coastal waters, with Delaware Bay ending at 4 PM and our ocean zones at 7 PM. To be honest though, with Ship John Shoal not even reaching 30 kt by 10 AM, and the offshore buoys struggling to get to 33 kt so far, we may cancel the warnings a little early. With increased mixing of gusts from aloft down to the surface through early this afternoon, at least portions of the ocean should continue to flirt with 35 kt 'gale force gusts', and seas remain rough around 6 to 8 ft. Fair weather today otherwise with some partial clearing skies.
For tonight, Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger, especially across the Atlantic coastal waters where elevated seas will linger near 5-7 feet while gradually diminishing overnight. Northwest winds near 20-25 kts early will diminish to near 10-15 kts late. Fair weather.
Outlook...
Tuesday...SCA criteria possible early; seas may linger around 5 feet. Winds WSW around 10 kts becoming 15 kts at night.
Wednesday...SCA criteria possible late. WNW winds 10-15 kts during the day ramp up to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts at night. Seas build to 3-5 feet.
Thursday...SCA criteria possible early before diminishing quickly through the day. WNW winds 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts in the morning subside to 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet.
Friday...No headlines expected. W winds 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 feet.
HYDROLOGY
The Flood Watch has been cancelled after rain has quickly lifted out of our region. A widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain has fallen across the area, with a localized stripe of 3 to 4 inches across the coastal plain of NJ. Main stem rivers have begun to respond as well, however widespread river flooding is will not occur, given the antecedent dry conditions. Excessive runoff will continue to result in some additional, generally minor, flooding of some low-lying areas near some of our area river, creeks and streams. Refer to the few river flood warnings in effect through midday today.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent southerly winds on Sunday have caused somewhat of a buildup of water in Barnegat Bay. Northwest winds will push the excess water into the back bays of Barnegat Bay this morning through midday along coastal Ocean County. Minor inundation on the most vulnerable roads is still possible, mainly around northern portions of the bay near Mantoloking. However, given recent trends, water levels are a little lower than expected, so it is not likely any observing gauges reach coastal flood advisory thresholds. Will keep the advisory until 1 PM to account for slight rises still occurring and some very localized minor inundation nonetheless.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ020-026.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 16 mi | 47 min | NW 23G | 44°F | 46°F | 29.87 | ||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 18 mi | 37 min | 27G | 51°F | 29.80 | |||
| BGNN6 | 30 mi | 47 min | 44°F | 48°F | 29.84 | |||
| MHRN6 | 30 mi | 47 min | WNW 24G | |||||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 30 mi | 47 min | NW 24G | 42°F | 29.84 | |||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 33 mi | 47 min | 43°F | 49°F | 29.79 | |||
| 44091 | 34 mi | 51 min | 51°F | 7 ft | ||||
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 41 mi | 47 min | NW 13G | 44°F | 45°F | 29.90 | ||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 42 mi | 47 min | NW 19G | 42°F | 49°F | 29.85 | ||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 43 mi | 37 min | 52°F | 29.77 | ||||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 47 mi | 32 min | WNW 18 | 43°F | 29.79 | 31°F | ||
| BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ | 48 mi | 71 min | NNW 6G | 44°F | 44°F | 29.88 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBLM MONMOUTH EXECUTIVE,NJ | 8 sm | 50 min | WNW 18G25 | 10 sm | Overcast | 45°F | 30°F | 57% | 29.85 | |
Wind History from BLM
(wind in knots)Belmar
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:37 AM EST 5.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EST Moonrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM EST -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:13 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST 4.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:56 PM EST -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:37 AM EST 5.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EST Moonrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM EST -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:13 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST 4.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:56 PM EST -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.2 |
| 3 am |
| 3.4 |
| 4 am |
| 4.4 |
| 5 am |
| 4.9 |
| 6 am |
| 5 |
| 7 am |
| 4.4 |
| 8 am |
| 3.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 4 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Gooseneck Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:37 AM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EST Moonrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST 2.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:13 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EST 2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:37 AM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EST Moonrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST 2.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:13 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EST 2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Gooseneck Point, bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 2.5 |
| 8 am |
| 2.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2.9 |
| 10 am |
| 2.6 |
| 11 am |
| 2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Philadelphia, PA,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE