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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1241 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.

ANZ500 1241 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.

FXUS61 KCTP 071911 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 211 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Upper level ridging upper will build into the region tonight and last through Saturday. Low pressure will track west of the state this weekend, with a trailing cold front traversing the region late Sunday. Widespread rain is expected late Saturday night into Sunday, with colder air arriving for a changeover to snow over the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon and night before precipitation tapers to flurries on Monday. Fair and seasonable conditions are then expected for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Quick hitting morning snow over central and eastern areas with locally 1"+ in spots is long gone with just a lingering flurry or sprinkle lingering at mid afternon over the southeast.

Improving conds as upper level ridging builds eastward tonight but a fair amount of clouds are expected to linger for the first part of tonight. A surface warm front pushing into Western PA may result in nearly steady temps across the Laurel Highlands tonight, while boundary layer decoupling further east results in lows in the upper 20s to low 30s across most of Central PA.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging takes hold Friday with plentiful sunshine and mild temperatures. Southerly flow, warming aloft and a return of sunshine with GEFS 2m temps +10-15F above climo will translate to highs in the upper 40s over the northeast part of the forecast area and the mid 50s in the southern valleys.

Friday night and Saturday remain fair under the upper ridge.
A similar west to east breakdown in min temps is expected Friday night with an active southerly breeze holding temps in the 35-40F range over the Allegheny Plateau, while surface ridging along the east coast results in decoupling and min temps in the low 30s over the eastern counties. Have also added patchy fog to the Sat AM forecast over the southeast half of the forecast area based on latest SREF and NAMNest guidance.

The slow moving warm front looks to be hung up along the Appalachians Saturday. Thus, the warmest temps with highs in the mid 50s are expected over the western counties, while cold air damming east of the front keeps readings a bit cooler in Eastern PA. Upper level ridging along the east coast should keep it dry for most, if not all, of Central PA. However, can't rule out a shower sneaking into the W Mtns toward dusk ahead of an upstream cold front, but it appears showers will hold off until well after dark for most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Models indicate a longwave upper level trough will move across the area late Sunday into Monday. System is not likely to cut off over our area, but several low pressure centers likely to track along the cold front on Sunday. Potential for moderate to heavy rain ahead and along the cold front. Unlike last Sunday, potential for severe storms not showing up, as 500 mb height falls lag the front, and dewpoints not really above 50 degrees.

It has been rather dry lately, and the heaviest rain fcst across the east, as the system slows down. While a heavy downpour could result in isolated problems, potential for widespread problems still low.

Gusty winds will be possible in the warm air on Sunday, where the airmass can mix. Gusty winds also behind the cold front, especially across the higher elevations.

Models and WPC guidance point to some potential for several inches of snow behind the front Sunday night, mainly across the areas north and west of the mountains. Any snow snow showers would taper off on Monday, as the system lifts out of the area.

Mention of potential adverse conditions in the HWO.

For the Tuesday into Thursday period, a secondary cold front moves across the region, but mainly a dry front. Nothing real cold or warm expected.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
18Z TAFS sent.

Main issue the next few hours is gusty winds at JST. Also with light winds still at IPT, thus LLWS there.

Most locations have VFR conditions, but lower CIGS at times at BFD.

Conditions should continue to improve as one heads into Friday.

Lower conditions will be possible by Saturday, as higher dewpoints are advected into the region.

Outlook...

Sat...MVFR BFD and VFR elsewhere daytime. Showers NW late.

Sun...CFROPA. Widespread reductions in rain/snow. Windy.

Mon...Rain/snow showers poss N/W. Breezy west wind.

Tue...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Thu -- 12:42 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:35 AM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:15 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:37 PM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:00 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:42 PM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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