Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Scotia, CA

DISCUSSION
High pressure continues to build and strengthen over the region, promoting dry weather and warmer temperatures through at least Tuesday. Interior valley fog will likely be slow to clear and may keep temperatures lower than expected in those specific area. Pleasant weather conditions is expected today with highs generally in the low 60's to mid 70's and light winds.

Dry offshore flow (easterly winds), especially at night, will keep the air very dry and reinforce the warming trend Sunday and Monday. Interior highs are forecast to be in the mid 70s into low 80s both days, but any areas that do have fog develop overnight will likely be slow to clear and may be lower than forecast. Even the coastal areas are expected to warm up to mid 60s to low 70's before the sea breezes develop. Although on Monday, we might see a slight change as a weak frontal system moves in from northwest, bringing mostly increasing clouds, but no measurable rain or significant cooling is expected.

Wet and unsettled weather conditions returns mid to late next week. Ridging breakdown and begin to shift eastward on Wednesday as an upper- level trough approaches the region. Ensemble and deterministic models are in a good agreement that a series of storm system will impact the area mid to late week. The aforementioned trough is expected to evolve into a cutoff low well offshore the Pacific Northwest and Northwest California on Wednesday, while an associated surface cyclogenesis will developed over the NE Pacific. Operational models, GFS and ECMWF, are showing a low level jet streaks developing upstream of the trough, bringing an enhancing a strong SSE flow regimen over the Northwest California coast Wednesday evening, before spin up and eventually moves toward Northern California and Oregon. This have the potential to bring periods of strong south winds from Wednesday evening into Friday. NBM 90th percentile (worst case scenario) shows widespread 40 to 55 mph, with locally strongest over the more exposed ridges and coast headlands. Widespread moderate to heavy rain amounts is also expected. The ensemble median 48 hours is between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain. NBM probability of 48-hours precipitation exceeding 2 inches range from 40-70% along the coastal range, with locally higher over the south-southwest windward facing terrain. The low end potential range from 1 to 2 inches and high end potential of 1.5 to 3.5 inches at lower elevations. The higher end potential could generate moderate to localized major flood impacts should it be realized. Stay tuned for updates during the next few days! /ZVS



AVIATION
(6Z TAFs)...Areas of patchy stratus and fog are being observed around Humboldt Bay and some of the interior river valleys.
So far, offshore flow has prevented these from affecting the terminals. Some impacts are possible before and around sunrise, with models showing the highest chances around Humboldt Bay. Any low clouds are likely to lift and scatter after sunrise. VFR conditions and light winds are forecast from the late morning into the evening.
HRRR is showing potential (about 50% chances) for more widespread stratus off the coast Saturday evening. JB



MARINE
Mild conditions are forecast this weekend. Winds are forecast to remain relatively light while seas will gradually ease.
Another mid-period west swell at around 6-8 ft is forecast to build in early Monday. Northerly breezes return Monday night into Tuesday, with peak gusts forecast around 20-25 kts. NBM is showing only 20- 30% chances for sustained winds greater than 21 kts. A system approaching the area Wednesday into Thursday will likely return elevated southerly winds and seas. JB



COASTAL FLOODING
High astronomical tides continue Saturday, with minor coastal flooding possible at high tide around Humboldt Bay.
Minor flooding is possible around King Salmon and the Arcata Bottoms. The coastal flood threat diminishes by Sunday as astronomical tides and residual surge continues to decrease. JB



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ103.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ415.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for PZZ450-455-470-475.