Thursday, September24, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Freehold, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:51PM Thursday September 24, 2020 10:01 AM EDT (14:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 545 Am Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Today..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 545 Am Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will remain off the mid-atlantic coast through Friday. Low pressure will pass to the south on Saturday. A cold frontal passage will then occur early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freehold , NJ
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location: 40.25, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 241344 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 944 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will move offshore today. The remnants of Beta will pass to the south of the region Friday and Saturday. A cold front will cross the region late in the weekend, with another cold front expected early in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Center of the high will continue to shift off shore through the day. As it does so, high clouds will continue to filter over the region. However, that should be the extent of impacts we see in our region as precip stays well south of our region through the day. Only a very slight chance for a shower to creep northward into extreme southern Delaware by late afternoon.

Southeasterly low level flow should keep temperatures slightly above normal, with highs near 80 possible across much of the region (highs in the 70s along the coast and in the higher terrain of the southern Poconos and northwest NJ). Bumped temperatures downward a touch given rather thicker cloud cover moving into the region - most highs will stay just shy of 80.

Aside from the cloudier skies, another nice day in store!

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. The remnants of Beta become less defined through the overnight period, though there is still a mid level short wave trough which should gradually lift towards the southern Appalachians overnight. As this happens, the northern fringe of the rain shield could nudge into Delmarva, including southern Delaware and adjacent locations in Maryland. Given that the best synoptic scale lift should stay well to our southwest through the overnight hours, it is unlikely we will see any rain, so have kept mention at only slight chance.

For the rest of the region though, dry conditions should continue, though clouds will likely thicken and lower. This will lead to limited radiational cooling (a marked difference from the last several nights). Consequently, lows should be slightly above normal, generally in the 50s to lower 60s.

Though dew point depressions will likely be low overnight, do not expect widespread issues with fog as the aforementioned clouds should also help limit fog development. However, if there are any breaks in the clouds, which is possible for NW NJ and E central PA, then some fog is possible.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The remnant low from Beta dissipates on Friday, but the moisture transport will continue into the Mid-Atlantic in the southwest surface flow. Aloft, a mid level trough with a decent amount of energy associated with it will cross to the south of our area. This trough, along with the slug of moisture to our south, will be enough to bring some showers to the region, with the majority of them staying across our southern and eastern areas through Saturday.

Sunday should be the drier day of the weekend though a few light showers may occur as the cloud cover increases and the low level moisture creeps back up (dew points get back into the mid/upper 60s). We should also start to see the gradient tightening up and winds will start to become gusty out of the south ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west.

Low pressure will cross over Hudson Bay on Sunday or Sunday night. The attendant cold front will start to push across the northeast and down towards our area. An area of low pressure looks to develop along the front on Monday, and will move through the Mid-Atlantic states. This will bring the first round of measurable precipitation to the region. With a decent southerly flow ahead of the low, we should see PWATs increase to around 1.5" across much of the region. Additionally, model soundings show instability, mainly aloft, with CAPE values around 300-500 J/kg. While that doesn't seem like much, when combined with the increasing moisture and lift from the approaching boundary, it should be enough to allow for some thunderstorms across the region.

The general pattern shows a deepening mid-level trough that pulls a good deal of energy through our area Tuesday or Wednesday. Some differences in timing from the models along with the placement of a surface low will impact just how wet we end up being during this time frame as the GFS is much wetter on Tuesday and the ECMWF is wetter on Wednesday. The main story will be the unsettled weather through midweek with cooler temperatures across the eastern US as the upper trough drags down some colder air from Canada. Highs will struggle to reach 70 across much of the area by Wednesday.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions expected with light and variable winds becoming light (less than 10kt) southwesterly by mid day. High confidence.

Tonight . Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for fog development, primarily for KRDG and KABE after 06Z. However, this is dependent on clouds breaking up early enough in the evening, which remains uncertain. Southwesterly winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the details of fog.

Outlook .

Friday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in showers later in the day, mainly south and east of KPHL. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . Increasing cloudiness with lowering ceilings through the morning. MVFR/IFR conditions likely at all terminals at some point during the day through periods of VFR are possible. Showers possible. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR conditions expected with MVFR conditions likely later in the day. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Periods of VFR with MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms. South to southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots later in the day. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft advisory criteria today and tonight with southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots this afternoon and evening. Showers possible overnight for the southern ocean waters. Seas less than 3 feet.

Outlook .

Friday through Monday . Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across the area waters. Seas will build through the weekend and may near 5 feet by Monday. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots, favoring the southwest most of the time. Wind gusts may near 25 knots late Sunday into Monday.

Rip Currents .

Seas will continue to subside and be 2-3 feet with a 10 second swell for most of the day today. Thus, we expect a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents today.

As waves decrease even more into tomorrow, the risk is expected to be low during the day on Friday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Davis/Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Meola Aviation . Davis/Johnson/Meola Marine . Johnson/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi44 min W 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 1016.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 27 mi50 min S 1 G 1 62°F 65°F1016.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi44 min 65°F 68°F1016.1 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi44 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi44 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 1015.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi32 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 68°F1015.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi44 min 65°F 68°F1016.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 34 mi86 min W 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 68°F1015.8 hPa
44091 42 mi36 min 69°F2 ft
BDSP1 47 mi44 min 67°F 1016.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 47 mi44 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 66°F 1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi66 minWNW 310.00 miFair61°F61°F100%1016.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair63°F55°F76%1015.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair61°F57°F87%1016.7 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ24 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair62°F57°F85%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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W10W10W6W3SW3SW6SW6SW4SW5SW4W5CalmNW4CalmNW4W3CalmNW3
1 day agoNW8N7N9NW9NW11NW11NW14W10W6W9W4W7W6W8W6W6W5W5SW4W6SW6SW4W4W7
2 days ago--NE13NE12
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NE7NE5CalmNW3CalmNW3NW3N4NW5NW5NW6NW7NW6NW5W7NW5NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Matawan Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:07 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.64.44.84.53.72.81.91.30.80.91.62.63.84.95.65.65432.11.20.70.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:57 AM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:26 PM EDT     6.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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34.155.454321.30.91.11.93.14.55.66.36.35.54.43.22.21.30.80.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.