Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Freehold, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:31PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:29 PM EST (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 5:14AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1259 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Light rain and drizzle early, then rain late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely with chance of snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 1259 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will lift to the north of all area waters by tonight. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and slowly move across from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freehold , NJ
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location: 40.25, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 091435 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 935 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front lifts north through the Northeast today as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. The low passes north of the area on Tuesday, and a cold front passes through the region Tuesday night. The front then becomes nearly stationary along the coast. Low pressure will develop on that front and will affect the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds in from the west on Thursday and moves offshore on Friday. Low pressure affects the Northeast next weekend, followed by high pressure for the start of the following week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 930 AM Update: The first round of rain is exiting the area at this hour. The next round is forecast to move through starting around 11 AM from west to east. The warm front is making its way inland as well and will continue to do so over the next few hours. I updated the temp/dewpoint forecast to better reflect its progression inland through the rest of the day.

Previous discussion . A coastal front is located along the Mid Atlantic coast from New Jersey southward to the Carolinas. This front will remain in place across the Mid Atlantic coast through today, before beginning to wash out later this afternoon as an area of low pressure lifts to our north along this boundary. Meanwhile, several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area as well today. Another short wave/vorticity impulse will be moving across the area this afternoon. This impulse will bring additional enhanced lift, creating more widespread rainfall across the area. PW values will increase to 1.00-1.25 inches, which could help lead to some periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Daytime rainfall amounts will be mostly 0.50-1.00 inches, with some locally heavier amounts possible, which could lead to some ponding on roadways and poor drainage type flooding.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. The coastal front will be out of the area by this evening, however, additional short waves/vorticity impulses are expected overnight. The first will occur during the first half of the night. This impulse will have more moisture associated with it, so higher chances of rainfall are expected for the first half of the night. By the second half of the night, the next short wave is not expected to have as much moisture associated with it, so there will be decreasing rainfall chances overnight. There will remain PW values of 1.00-1.25 inches, so some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible this evening. Rainfall amounts this evening into the overnight will be mostly 0.25-0.50 inches or less.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The start of the day Tuesday will find the region in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. Temperatures will be well above normal, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. As the front approaches, rain develops in the afternoon, and continues into Tuesday night as the cold front works its way through the region. Rain should mix with and change to snow in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey late Tuesday night through Wednesday, and then rain and/or snow will gradually taper off during the day Wednesday for southeast Pennsylvania, the rest of New Jersey, and Delmarva. CAA will be underway on Wednesday, and highs will be some 20-25 degrees colder than Tuesday, topping off in the 30s to low 40s. Best chances for accumulating snow will be in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, but lighter amounts are possible in southeast Pennsylvania and the rest of New Jersey. Will have to see how the arrival of the cold air lines up with the timing of the precip.

Strong 1040 mb high pressure over the Northern Plains then builds through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, and will be over the region on Thursday. A bitterly cold airmass overspreads the region with lows Wednesday night in the teens and 20s, and highs on Thursday in the 20s in the southern Poconos, and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.

That high moves into the Gulf of Maine and towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, and east to southeast flow develops behind the departing high. Temperatures warm back up to near and slightly above normal levels on Friday.

Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the southeast U.S. and will begin to lift north. A warm front will develop out ahead of that low and will lift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the day Friday. Although Friday starts out dry, some light precip may develop late in the day. It should be warm enough for mostly rain, but there may be some frozen precip up north.

GFS and ECMWF are dry, but the CMC brings precip north Friday afternoon. Think slight chance/low chance PoPs will cover this for now.

Rain likely Friday night and Saturday as low pressure lifts north along the coast. Do have to watch for potential for freezing rain Friday night in the southern Poconos, as it may take some time for the lowest levels of the atmosphere to warm above normal. By Saturday, expecting rain throughout. Should be warm with highs in the 50s.

There is some uncertainty in the forecast from there. Conditions should dry out on Sunday, but some weak upper shortwaves could keep unsettled weather in the forecast into the start of the following week.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . IFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day, with some areas lowering to LIFR. A couple of periods of rainfall will be possible across the TAF sites. The first is currently on its way out this morning, then a temporary break is expected late this morning into the early afternoon before more rainfall moves in for the remainder of the afternoon. IFR conditions will remain regardless of the rainfall. LLWS will also be a concern today across the TAF sites developing late this morning into the afternoon.

Variable winds will be in place across much of the area through the morning hours, before settling into a south to southeast direction by this afternoon. Winds will increase to 5-10 knots once the southerly wind begins.

--High confidence in IFR conditions and rainfall.

Tonight . IFR conditions will continue through the evening hours and into the first half of the night as rainfall continues to move northward across the area. However, as the rain moves to our north, conditions may lift to MVFR for a time later in the night.

Winds will increase out of the south to southwest this evening and overnight, and may begin gusting 15-20 knots for some areas. Where areas are not gusting, low-level wind shear may continue into this evening.

--Moderate confidence in conditions improving overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . Brief VFR conditions Tuesday morning, otherwise MVFR/IFR Tuesday afternoon and night. Southwest winds abruptly shifting to the northwest Tuesday afternoon 10 to 15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt especially Tuesday afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly changing to snow at KRDG/KABE before ending. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR in the afternoon. West winds near 10 kt.

Wednesday night-Thursday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming northerly on Thursday. High Confidence.

Thursday night-Friday . Generally VFR. Light northeasterly winds Thursday night veering more easterly (around 5kts) on Friday. Conditions may begin to lower Friday afternoon.

MARINE. Today-tonight . A Small Craft Advisory continues for the Atlantic coastal waters for today and tonight as winds will increase to 20-25 knots, with gusts of 30 knots. Winds above the surface increase even more, 40-45 knots at a few hundred feet, however, there should be enough of an inversion to prevent these winds from mixing down to the surface. If they do end up increasing, we may end up having to issue a short fused Gale Warning.

OUTLOOK .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . SCA extended through Tuesday for the ocean waters, and SCA conditions may continue through Tuesday night. SW winds will shift to the NW in the afternoon, and gusts up to 30 kt possible. Tuesday night, winds and seas should gradually diminish below SCA criteria.

Wednesday . Conditions should stay below SCA criteria, though some westerly gusts to 25 kt are possible.

Thursday . Sub SCA conditions expected with northerly- northeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts.

Friday . Seas potentially increasing above SCA criteria Friday PM but uncertainty is high. Winds becoming easterly and gusting 15-20 kts by Friday afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Robertson/Staarmann Short Term . Robertson Long Term . MPS Aviation . MPS/Robertson/Staarmann Marine . Haines/MPS/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi60 min WSW 8 G 8.9 50°F 40°F1014.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 27 mi60 min SSW 5.1 G 8 50°F 38°F1014.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi60 min 51°F 45°F1013.7 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi60 min S 5.1 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi60 min SW 7 G 9.9 52°F 1013.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi40 min SSW 12 G 16 51°F 7 ft1014 hPa50°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi60 min 51°F 46°F1013.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 34 mi54 min SSW 6 G 9.9 50°F 38°F1013.2 hPa
44091 42 mi30 min 51°F10 ft
BDSP1 47 mi60 min 49°F 1013.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 47 mi60 min WSW 6 G 7 52°F 44°F1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi34 minSSW 510.00 miLight Rain53°F52°F96%1014.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi2.4 hrsWSW 810.00 miOvercast55°F52°F90%1014.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi34 minSSE 66.00 miRain0°F0°F%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S33S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW5W5CalmE3E5E6E7SE7
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1 day agoNW8NW4NW4NW5NW4N5NE5N4N4N4N4W3CalmN3N3NW3CalmCalmSE3S8SE7S8S7SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Matawan Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:14 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:29 AM EST     5.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:52 PM EST     4.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.22.53.74.65.25.14.53.52.41.40.50.20.51.52.73.74.44.64.23.22.11.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:12 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     5.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:42 PM EST     5.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.41.534.35.35.85.74.93.82.51.40.50.20.71.93.24.355.14.63.42.21.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.