Wednesday, October28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Freehold, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:59PM Wednesday October 28, 2020 12:52 AM EDT (04:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:05PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1049 Pm Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Overnight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1049 Pm Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weakening high pressure tonight gives way to an approaching weak wave of low pressure for Wednesday. Frontal boundary associated with weak low moves south of the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The remnants of tropical cyclone zeta along with a larger low pressure system to its west will impact the area from Thursday into Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freehold , NJ
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location: 40.25, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 280147 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 947 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will build in through tomorrow. Broad low pressure, including the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Zeta, is anticipated to move off the Middle Atlantic coast on Thursday night. High pressure is expected to build over the region by Saturday. Another cold front is expected to arrive Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Current forecast is in good shape this evening as a shortwave will traverse the 500mb flow and enter our area. Additionally, a weak surface trough/low will develop along the stalled boundary and move into our forecast area overnight. Sky cover will start to increase once again and we should be overcast through the night. As a result of the waves moving through, we will see a round of light rain cross the area, mainly after midnight. Best chances for rain look to be north and west of the I-95 corridor with light amounts, less than a quarter of an inch.

With the skies being so cloudy, we should remain fairly mild overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with some lower 40s across the southern Poconos.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. The surface trough is slow to cross the region and eventually tries to push offshore by the late afternoon. Some rain will remain around the region through the morning, but should start to clear out through the day, exiting offshore by the afternoon. Cloudy skies will remain across the region with some thinning or clearing of clouds late in the day, especially in our northern zones. Winds remain pretty light all day but should start to become more westerly as the day goes on.

Daytime highs will warm back into the 60s through much of the area with some 50s remaining across the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview: Will be keeping a close eye on the Thursday and Friday time period as the combination of the remnants of Zeta and a cold front could bring heavy rain to our region (and possibly some snow to the higher terrain in NW NJ and E Central PA). Outside of that, the long term looks relatively quiet.

Details:

Thursday and Friday: The remnants of Zeta should cross our region late Thursday and the secondary low pressure system will slide through Thursday night. Consequently, expect several rounds of precipitation (mostly rain) Thursday through Friday.

Changes from the previous forecast: The trend for the remnants of Zeta to be more progressive continues. Consequently, it appears there will be separation between the remnants of Zeta and the second low and upper level low. The net result is that the precipitation may come more in the form of waves rather than steady rain through the entire period. Another change is that some of the operational models show considerable dry air advection in the mid levels as early as Friday morning. This could have impacts on the potential for mixed precipitation in the Poconos and NW NJ.

Heavy rain: Precipitable water values should be well above normal (1.5 inches or higher). Also, portions of the region (primarily for Delmarva and South Jersey) a deep warm cloud layer is expected, increasing the risk for heavy rain. The caveats are that the rain (storm total generally 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible especially in Delmarva) should be falling over a long enough period that the flooding threat could be limited. Also as mentioned above, the heavier rain could come in waves, with a few lulls through out this period. For now, will continue a mention in the HWO, but will hold off on a watch.

Snow/mixed precip: If the cold front arrives early enough and if cold air filters in fast enough behind it on Thursday night, snow could mix with rain in the higher terrain of the southern Poconos and NW NJ. There is still a question if this will occur as several models show the boundary layer temperatures not decreasing significantly until the precip moves out. Even if it occurs, little (if any) snow accumulation is expected as temperatures in the boundary layer are expected to barely drop to freezing and earlier rain and warm ground should limit accumulation potential. The other complication is that (as mentioned above) some operational models show considerable dry air advection as early as Friday morning. Consequently the southern Poconos and NW NJ could have only drizzle by the time the temperatures drop into the mid 30s. For now, there isn't much guidance depicting this, so will hold off on including this in the grids.

Friday night: strong cold air advection will continue in the wake of the mid level trough crossing off shore. Areas that have not yet seen the first killing freeze of the season could have it on Friday night as most of the area is forecast to be at or below freezing with the exception of coastal areas and portions of Delmarva.

Saturday through Tuesday: High pressure should be the dominant feature through much of the weekend, resulting in tranquil, but cool conditions on Saturday. By Sunday, southwesterly winds could kick start a brief warming trend. Another cold front is expected Sunday night or Monday. Moisture advection ahead of this appears limited, so not sure we will see much precipitation associated with this front.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR to start the night but conditions will drop to MVFR around 05-06Z then down to IFR around 08-09z. Light rain will move through the terminals dropping both ceilings and visibilities, with better chances to the north and west of KPHL. Light and variable winds. Moderate confidence but lower confidence on timing of category changes.

Wednesday . IFR through much of the morning becoming MVFR as rain exits the region. Ceilings and visibilities will improve gradually, becoming VFR in the early afternoon. Low confidence on specific timing.

Outlook .

Thursday and Thursday night . MVFR/IFR conditions in rain. The rain may be heavy at times resulting in visibility restrictions. Winds could start light and variable, but should settle out of the northeast by Thursday evening at 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible, primarily at KACY. Non-convective low level wind shear is possible primarily Thursday afternoon, but still uncertain. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the potential for LLWS and details of flight category changes like timing.

Friday . Conditions should gradually improve to VFR by mid day. Northerly winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 kt. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the details.

Saturday and Sunday . Mostly VFR conditions expected. Winds will be shifting from northeasterly Saturday morning, to easterly and southeasterly Saturday night, to southwesterly during the day Sunday. Wind speeds should generally be 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Relatively quiet conditions expected on the area waters through Wednesday. Seas around 2 to 4 feet. Light north to northwest winds becoming south to southwest overnight, then west to southwest around 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday.

Outlook . Wednesday night and Thursday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through this time.

Thursday night and Friday . Winds and seas are expected to build as a low approaches the region. Gale force gusts are possible especially Friday morning.

Saturday . Winds and seas will gradually decrease, but we will likely have SCA conditions continuing at least on the ocean waters for most, if not all of Saturday.

Sunday . Southwesterly winds and seas on the coastal waters could build again to SCA criteria.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Deal/Meola Short Term . Meola Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Deal/Johnson/Meola Marine . Johnson/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi53 min E 5.1 G 7 57°F 1021.4 hPa (-0.5)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 27 mi53 min SE 1 G 1 56°F 60°F1021.4 hPa (-0.4)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi53 min 55°F 62°F1020.8 hPa (-0.6)
MHRN6 28 mi53 min NNE 6 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi53 min NNE 7 G 9.9 56°F 1020.6 hPa (-0.6)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi33 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 62°F1020.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi53 min 56°F 62°F1021 hPa (-0.4)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 34 mi77 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 56°F 61°F1021 hPa
44091 42 mi57 min 63°F3 ft
BDSP1 47 mi53 min 58°F 1021.2 hPa (+0.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 47 mi53 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1021.1 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1021.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1020.7 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi57 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F52°F93%1021.3 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ24 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F49°F85%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SW4W6W4W7W6W5W8NW8NW10NW6N6N6CalmCalmNE4SE4SE3SE5CalmCalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoE11
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E11E9E9E11E8E7E7E5E5E4E4E4E6E3CalmCalmS3
2 days agoNW7N7NW9N7N5N8N5N6N10NE11N11NE11NE9NE8NE7NE8N7N7N6N3NE6NE6N5E11
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for New Bedford, Shark River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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