Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM   Moonset 4:30 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 941 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves subsiding to 1 ft or less.Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 941 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak wave of low pressure well east of the delmarva will drift southeast as high pressure noses down from eastern new england and the canadian maritimes overnight. The high will weaken on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through late Friday night into early Saturday, followed by a dry secondary cold frontal passage late day Saturday or Saturday evening. High pressure will then follow from Saturday night into early next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 190542 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 142 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the Gulf of Maine will slowly track out to sea on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure north of the Great Lakes will slowly track east and will drag a cold front across the region Friday and Friday night. The front becomes stationary south of the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. The next frontal system looks to affect the area Tuesday night through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A backdoor cold front is now advancing southwestward and has passed into the Chesapeake Bay heading further southwest.
However, there is little to no forcing of substance and low levels have dried a bit with a bit more northerly component to the flow behind the front. There have even been some breaks in the overcast overnight, though expect those to be short-lived.
Overall tonight, expect relatively dry and quiet conditions.
Northeasterly winds will persist and some patchy fog/drizzle looks to continue in the Poconos, but lower elevations should avoid such conditions. Lows in the 40s overall.

Friday will start out dry as the weak onshore flow regime persists. Cloudy conditions are expected through the day as low- level moisture continues to funnel in. A "typical" cold front will approach from the northwest, with scattered light showers spreading across eastern PA in mid to late afternoon, and even some some isolated showers reaching the I-95 corridor toward the evening. Not expecting anything impactful overall though as the strongest forcing will be well to the north and there will be no instability. Rainfall amounts will only be a few hundredths for those that see any rain Friday afternoon.
High temperatures will get into the upper 50s/low 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Cold front slowly works its way across the region Friday night and will be offshore by Saturday morning. There does not look to be much lift or moisture associated with this front, and QPF should be on the order of 1/10 inch or less. Perhaps up to 2/20 inch of QPF is possible for southern Delaware as low pressure passes through the Mid-Atlantic, but well south of the local forecast area.

The front continues to move offshore through the weekend, but the tail end of the front will extend back through the Mid- Atlantic and back through the Gulf Coast. High pressure builds in from the north and west and conditions dry out for most of the weekend. Low pressure develops on that old front will will pass through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, but this system looks to be well south of the region, and any rainfall should be south of Delaware.

Near normal temperatures on tap for Saturday with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Cold air advection will be underway for Saturday night and Sunday with a below normal air mass spreading into the region. Lows Saturday night will be in the 30s and low 40s, and then highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure slowly works its way through the East Coast for the start of the new week, moving offshore and south of the region by Tuesday. Low pressure approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves north of the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. For now, will generally carry chance PoPs for that timeframe, but there will be a slug of likely PoPs for the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley Tuesday night. Cold front passes through behind the departing low on Wednesday. Conditions dry out for Thursday.

Temperatures return to normal levels for the first half of the week, dropping below normal for the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Tonight...Prevailing MVFR ceilings with mainly unrestricted VSBY outside of the Poconos. Some variability and even brief scattering of the low cloud layer, but generally remaining around 015-025 for the majority of the night into Friday morning. Winds out of the east around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Friday...Ceilings mainly MVFR with unrestricted VSBY. Winds veering to more of a southeasterly direction around 5-10 kt.
Some light showers coming into ABE/RDG in the afternoon, potentially lowering VSBY to MVFR in the evening, followed by gradually lowering ceilings toward 00Z there.

Outlook...

Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA.

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect currently for all the ocean zones. SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters through late Friday night as seas linger 6-8 ft tonight, and gradually lower toward 5 ft Friday night. Otherwise, winds are easing through Friday morning, ENE 10-15 kt, tending SE 5-10 kt Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...A prolonged period of sub-SCA conditions and fair weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.

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