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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 919 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Today..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening, then slight chance of light rain or drizzle after midnight.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain or drizzle.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain or drizzle after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 919 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure will be in control through tonight. A weak wave of low pressure then passes nearby Friday afternoon into evening, with a weak trough of low pressure remaining nearby on Saturday. A frontal boundary then lingers nearby to the south Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure developing along the front will pass to the south on Sunday and then move farther out to sea on Monday.

FXUS61 KPHI 301419 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 919 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain in control of the weather today and tonight. A low pressure system and cold front will pass through Friday and Friday night. The weekend will start out mostly dry on Saturday but will become increasingly more unsettled for Sunday and into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 9:15AM...No changes to the forecast at this time.
Previous discussion remains below...

The last day of November will start off on a chilly note, but also milder in many locations compared Wednesday morning. Despite clear skies, a dry airmass and light winds, a deck of mid- level clouds passing by last night limited radiational cooling. Still, some valleys in eastern PA and portions of the NJ pine barrens will still start off in the low 20s, with readings very close to yesterday morning, as they were able to radiate more efficiently during the predawn hours. Otherwise, coastal areas, much of the urban corridor, and ridges of the Appalachian foothills will start of 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday, on average. That will portend a notably milder afternoon for all areas, with highs 10-12 degrees milder than yesterday...quite a change after the coldest couple of days of the season thus far. The milder temperatures will be accompanied by a light southwesterly breeze and a fair amount of sunshine. The clear skies of this morning may give way to scattered high clouds drifting in from the southwest this afternoon.

This warming trend will be supported by surface and mid-level high pressure drifting off the Carolina coast, with southerly surface winds veering to more westerly farther aloft, in typical warm-air- advection fashion. 850mb temps warm to around 3-4C, in contrast to Wednesday's -3C to -6C. The high clouds this afternoon into this evening will be brought on by an approaching weak mid-level shortwave. That will quickly track east of NJ by midnight, allowing for mainly clear skies through early Friday morning, until low pressure approaches from the midwest on Friday. Dewpoints have been running lower than earlier forecasts, so trended the forecast through tonight toward the driest/lowest guidance. That said, dewpoints still should rise from 5-10F compared to Wednesday night.
Despite otherwise good radiational cooling conditions, that will result in low temperatures by Friday morning 5-10F milder than Thursday's lows. Some mid to upper 20s may still be found in sheltered valleys of eastern PA, and the coldest parts of the NJ pine barrens.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The week will end on a rainy note as an upper trough moves into the middle of the country and surface low pressure develops across the lower Ohio Valley. This low doesn't become very organized and in fact diminishes as it crosses thru the Great Lakes area Friday night and into Saturday. The warm air advection and Gulf of Mexico moisture that moves into our area ahead of this low will have enough energy to produce rains for later Friday and into Friday night. We'll continue with the latest guidance which offers high chance and low likely pops for these periods. Rain totals will probably only average around a tenth of an inch.

It'll remain unsettled Saturday with the low still to the north and a few weak fronts crossing the area. We'll still have some low chance or slight chance pops for the first day of the weekend. It will be very mild Sat as some upper ridging moves in. Highs will range from the mid/upper 50s for the N/W areas and low 60s most other areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low pressure will affect the weather across the Northern Middle Atlantic area for the end of the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures will continue to remain above normal thru that period, so all rain is expected for the region. A cold front follows the system and will cross through Monday, so we'll continue with the chance pops into the day. Following that, a more settled pattern into the midweek with temperatures falling back to normal levels for Tuesday and then a little below normal for Wednesday. The current (and previous)
runs of the ECMWF had a weaker clipper system across the area Wednesday.
But for now, we wont have anything greater than slight chance pops.
There isn't much support for this system with the GFS/CMC.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Light WSW wind will back more out of the SSW in the afternoon, up to 10 kt. Clear skies may give way to some high clouds in the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. S-SW winds around 5 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...
Friday thru Saturday morning... sub-VFR at times with showers and patchy fog.

Saturday afternoon/night... VFR mostly. Patchy overnight fog possible

Sunday into Monday... More Low clouds/showers and fog possible.
MVFR/IFR expected.

MARINE
With high pressure drifting off the Carolina coast, expect fair weather through tonight, with just some passing high clouds later today. WSW winds that locally gusted to 25 kt at the offshore buoys overnight will actually drop off to 10-15 kt this morning through early afternoon. Winds will back to SW this afternoon, while increasing to 15-20 kt late today through much of tonight. Seas over the ocean mainly around 3 ft will correspondingly build to near or above 4 ft, particularly beyond 10-20 nm offshore and farther north off the NJ coast. Some local gusts of 25 kt may be found offshore north of about Atlantic City for a few hours this evening. That is not enough to justify any advisories, though.

Outlook...

Sub-SCA for Friday and into the weekend. SCA possible next Monday and Tuesday. Rains and fog possible Friday/Friday night and again Sunday/Sunday night and maybe into Monday morning.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old Bridge
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Thu -- 04:16 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:17 AM EST     6.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:59 PM EST     4.94 feet High Tide
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Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Cheesequake Creek
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Thu -- 03:29 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM EST     5.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
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Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey, Tide feet

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