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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 344 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of snow showers early. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 111711 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1211 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to keep a dry weather pattern over the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the week. A dry cold front will cross the region Tuesday night and bring a small drop in temperatures for Wednesday in an otherwise warming trend for the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pressure builds in from the southwest through the day. Light northerly winds this morning switch to the west, then southwest, as the ridge axis associated with the surface high progresses east of the area late today. Low level clouds have already begun to scatter this morning, however, a more distinct clearing trend should hold off until the afternoon hours when low level RHs finally drop off.
Forecasts highs range from the middle 30s north of I-70 to near 40 south of the Ohio River.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Clear sky cover and a generally light wind under 5 mph from the south will permit temperatures to drop into the mid 20s tonight.

Southwest flow on Tuesday will increase and bring in a bit warmer air with highs ranging from the mid 40s with some upper 40s along and south of the Ohio River and in the lower Scioto Valley.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak and dry surface cold front to slip off to the southeast Tuesday night as high pressure begins to nose into the region.
Dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures can be expected Tuesday night with lows ranging from the lower 20s to the upper 20s.

Split mid level flow develops with confluent region into the Ohio Valley at mid week. Large surface high pressure to become centered over ILN/s area Wednesday. Dry weather with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees below normal as forecast highs Wednesday range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Mid level ridging to build into the Ohio Valley as surface high pressure re-establishes over the area through the end of the week. This will lead to continued dry weather with a warming trend. Highs in the lower and middle 40s Thursday to warm to around 50 on Friday and Saturday.

Model solution spread is observed late this weekend as the mid ridge level ridge breaks down and a shortwave feature develops into the Great Lakes. Ensemble solutions lend evidence toward continued dry weather Sunday and therefore have kept daylight hours Sunday dry and limited any pops to slight chance over the southeast Sunday night. Mild temperatures continue with highs around 50 on Sunday.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Skies will continue to scatter this afternoon giving way to VFR conditions the rest of the TAF period. There is some timing uncertainty regarding the exact timing of scattering out to VFR.

Westerly winds around 5-10 knots persist afternoon. Winds back to the south/southwest and increase late overnight when a cold front starts approaching from the northwest. Winds start veering back to the west by 0000z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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