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LEZ144 Expires:202312062115;;001557 Fzus51 Kcle 061417 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 917 am est Wed dec 6 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-062115- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 917 am est Wed dec 6 2023
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A slight chance of rain and snow showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 44 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 061741 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1241 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves into the region Wednesday, allowing for drier conditions for the end of the working week. Southerly flow returns and we'll notice a warming trend ahead of the next big system that looks to impact the forecast area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Even as surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the southwest, a few flurries across northwest Ohio are being produced from relatively shallow moisture sourced off Lake Michigan. Have added this potential across our northern counties through the afternoon. Still think measurable precipitation is unlikely for today.

Otherwise, there is likely enough low level moisture elsewhere for a cumulus field this afternoon, so we can expect a mixture of sun and clouds.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
By Wednesday evening, the high pressure will have scooted east over the Tennessee Valley region, keeping the ILN FA on the northern edge of the high. Large scale subsidence aids in clouds finally thinning a bit during the overnight hours and Wednesday night lows drop to the upper 20s/low 30s.

By Thursday morning, the high pressure will have scooted east toward the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley will be situated in a region of strong southwesterly flow in between the high to our southeast and a developing low pressure off to our west. This enhanced southerly flow and WAA pushes a plume of increased theta-e into our region. Temperatures and Tds follow suit accordingly, beginning to rise. Highs on Thursday reach the low 50s with clouds clearing out during afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
For the period Thursday night into Friday, a mid level ridge is forecast to shift east. We will remain between a departing surface high off the southeast U.S. coast and a frontal system and developing low pressure across the Plains. With a continued decent pressure gradient, breezy conditions will persist, particulary for our northwest zones. Lows in the mid 30s to the lower 40s will rebound into the 50s to near 60.

We continue to monitor the development of the next weather system to affect the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for this upcoming weekend.
For Saturday, a long wave trough across the Plains will undergo a negative tilt as it progresses east across our region into Sunday.
Surface low pressure over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen as it quickly heads northeast, likely tracking to our west, and into the western Great Lakes by Saturday night. This process will induce a low level jet which will transport moisture northeast ahead of an attendant cold front. WAA showers will increase late Friday night, followed by categorical PoPs by Saturday night as the front pushes east through the area. Models are now indicating some surface instability, so a low chance of thunderstorms are forecast. We will continue to assess the strength of the low and low level wind fields to see if a cool season QLCS would be possible with the cold front.
Confidence is still not there yet to mention in the HWO. In any case, it will be breezy to locally windy Saturday into Saturday night. After mild lows in the 40s, highs on Saturday will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. CAA will ensue Saturday night with frontal passage. For Sunday, models are now indicating that a secondary low may form along the passing cold front just to our southeast, heading northeast toward New England as it deepens due to increasing favorable upper level jet energy. Forecast highs in the 40s and 50s will likely be early with CAA likely occurring during the day. Pcpn will be likely especially east closer to the secondary low track. By Sunday night, pcpn will taper off to scattered rain and/or snow showers as temperatures drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s by Monday morning.

Surface high pressure is forecast to build east into the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing an end to any lingering pcpn as skies clear from the west. It will be seasonably cold with highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Our region will be between systems on Tuesday as the surface high departs east and a weak cold front drops southeast into the Great Lakes. Highs will moderate into the 40s, close to seasonal normals.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Outside of period of MVFR cumulus early in the TAF period, VFR conditions can be expected with high pressure building in from the southwest.

A disturbance will shift east across the Great Lakes late tonight into Thursday morning. The gradient between this system and high pressure to the south will produce gusty winds starting before sunrise and peaking in the mid to late morning on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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