Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delaware, OH

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 112338 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 738 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A closed low pressure system along with lingering moisture will provide a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms late this week through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Weak surface high pressure will build into the forecast area late this evening, bringing light winds and some valley fog development in favored areas. Dewpoints may drop a bit in the north, with higher fog potential in the lower Scioto and Ohio Valleys. Temperatures will drop into 60s, with the drier, cooler temps in the northwest.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. After fog burns off in the morning, expecting weak high pressure to continue to provide generally dry weather. South of I-71, lingering low level moisture will allow some marginal instability (<1000J/kg) to pop a few showers a maybe a storm in the late afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, expecting another quiet weather day. Highs will reach into the 80s on Wednesday, with lows Wednesday night in the mid 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A broad but somewhat large midlevel open wave/low will be positioned to the west/southwest of the Ohio Valley for the start of the long term period, with the trof axis/center of the low positioned somewhere in the vicinity of western KY/TN. Even though we are only 48 hours or so away, some notable differences remain amongst the global/synoptic models regarding the evolution of this feature as it meanders its way east/northeast into/through the region from Thursday through Saturday. While the GFS/CMC are more aggressive bringing the open wave/closed low north into the heart of the region by Friday into Saturday, the ECMWF continues to show a more suppressed solution with the closed low meandering about the TN Vly with relatively dry low level air attempting to impinge into northern parts of the local area during the latter half of the workweek. Certainly these differences bear vastly different solutions for the sensible weather locally, with the latter/suppressed solution keeping the best ascent/LL moisture just to the south of the immediate ILN FA through Friday. It is worth noting that /eventually/ the ECMWF attempts to shunt the system east by Saturday, perhaps bringing just enough moisture into the southern Ohio Valley as to introduce diurnally-driven PoPs. However, the GFS/CMC paint a much wetter/cloudier, and consequently cooler, solution for the Thursday-Saturday time period.

Did try to skew the fcst to a solution more in-between, with lower /primarily daytime/ PoPs especially for the southern parts of the local area for Thursday and a bit more coverage on Friday into Saturday as well. This lines up well with some of the ensemble mean solutions on both the GEFS and EPS. Would expect to see the best coverage /perhaps scattered in nature/ to be focused toward the Ohio River and points south, with a trend toward drier conditions in the west by later Saturday into Sunday as the mid/upper level feature slides east of the region.

Will see more pronounced troughing evolve near/east of the Mississippi River Valley for the start of next workweek, signaling a trend toward drier and cooler conditions for the end of the long term period into the middle of next week. Before that, however, temperatures will generally be near seasonal norms or perhaps slightly above normal from the end of this workweek into the weekend, with daytime highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure stretching across the Great Lakes will provide weak forcing and limited deep moisture through this period. FG and BR is forecast to form late tonight in humid and calm air near the ground, with LIFR possible at LUK and MVFR at ILN. Otherwise, visibilities may remain above 5 miles. Ceilings should stay above 3000 feet. A few showers will be possible in the vicinity of CVG and LUK on Wednesday in moister air residing near the Ohio River. Winds becoming northeast will stay light in a loose pressure gradient.

OUTLOOK . Thunderstorms possible Friday and Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hogue NEAR TERM . Hogue SHORT TERM . Hogue LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . Coniglio

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	80 mi	85 min	SW 1.9	84°F			1014 hPa	69°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	81 mi	70 min	W 9.9 G 12	82°F			1013.2 hPa (+0.0)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	88 mi	52 min	WSW 2.9 G 7	81°F	74°F		1012.9 hPa	65°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH	15 mi	77 min	NNW 8	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	83°F	68°F	61%	1014 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH	16 mi	71 min	WNW 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	81°F	66°F	62%	1015.6 hPa
Marion, Marion Municipal Airport, OH	22 mi	77 min	NNW 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	79°F	66°F	67%	1014.8 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH	22 mi	79 min	WSW 8	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	83°F	66°F	57%	1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSU

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH

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