Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 5:25 AM   Moonset 8:45 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405081415;;829524 Fzus51 Kcle 080741 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 341 am edt Wed may 8 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-081415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 341 am edt Wed may 8 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 081546 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1146 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
A narrow ridge of high pressure will offer fair and warm conditions through most of today before a disturbance brings a return of showers and thunderstorms late in the day extending into Thursday morning. Cool high pressure will provide dry weather to close the work week before a fast-moving system moving through the Great Lakes brings showers on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/
Updated the pops for this afternoon through tonight with a model blend that approximated current thinking. This generally slowed the onset of precip but was an overall minor change. With regards to severe potential, added a chance of severe in the forecast for much of northern KY and far southeast IN. Threat should diminish a few hours before daybreak. Later forecasts will take a deeper dive on timing and severe potential.

SPC day 1 outlook morning update pulled enhanced area south/southwest and out of the CWA That area was where severe potential tonight is noted in previous paragraph.

WPC has southern/southwest CWA in a slight chance for excessive rainfall tonight. Combined with last night's rain, a significantly deep moist atmosphere, and expected thunderstorms, a flash flood watch has been issued for the southern 1/2 of CWA

Main concern for this watch is a narrow corridor running from south of Wilmington to the Ohio River, then northwest through metro Cincy and following I-74 through Indiana. Rainfall along the I-74 corridor into Cincinnati was quite high, with reports of 2-4" quite common and more than a handful over 3".

Southwest mid-level flow ahead of a persistent Western U.S.
trough will continue the warm and humid pattern today. A shortwave will eject northeast into the middle Mississippi Valley by the end of the period, bringing increasing clouds.
Isolated showers and storms may begin to develop toward the end of the period near and south of the Ohio River along a developing warm front.

SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Some high-res guidance shows the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the warm front to start the period this evening. While hodographs remain rather straight, bulk shear near 50 knots will be more than enough to allow for deep cores with a large hail and damaging wind risk.

Later this evening into the overnight period, the shortwave will shift east. This will bring a wave of low pressure and a trailing cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Recent trends shift the bulk of the strong to severe convection further south, probably even south of our CWA At any rate, there will likely be a large shield of showers and embedded storms moving through our CWA overnight.

The cold front will clear our area to the east on Thursday with cooler and dry air finally arriving late in the day. Highs to the north will remain in the 60s but will still reach into the 70s south of Interstate 70.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level trough will settle over the region through the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures to the Ohio Valley. An embedded weak mid level short wave will drop down through the area on Friday and this could lead to a few afternoon showers. A stronger mid level short wave will pivot across the area on Saturday, bringing a better chance for showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley for Sunday with mostly dry conditions expected. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend with daytime highs mainly in the 60s.

We will transition to a more zonal flow pattern aloft through early next week with daytime highs back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday.
Some embedded mid level energy will lead to some lower end chances for showers and a few thunderstorms both days.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Patches of stratus have developed near the Dayton and Columbus terminals early this morning. Due to the scattered nature of the low clouds, expecting burn off to occur rather quickly.

Otherwise, fair conditions will occur through much of the day under a narrow ridge of high pressure. The next disturbance will arrive very late this afternoon into tonight. Initially, scattered storms are possible along a developing warm front near the Cincinnati terminals. After this, there should be an increasing coverage of rain showers with embedded storms overnight. MVFR cloud bases are likely to develop during the widespread rain late.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs possible into Thursday morning and again on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for INZ066-073>075-080.

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