Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delaware, OH

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 091200 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 700 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure in the Midwestern States will lift into southern Ontario, providing rain through today into the evening hours. A strong cold front will bring sharply colder temperatures on Tuesday as the low exits to the northeast. Wednesday and Thursday will be cold and dry before temperatures begin to rebound late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Rain has already begun to increase across the Tri State early this morning with development of a 45-50kt southwesterly low level jet as noted on radar data from TCVG and ILN. Expecting PoPs to generally increase from southwest to northeast through sunrise.

For the rest of the day, temperatures will continue to run well above normal, as high as the upper 50s in the southeast, under strong WAA. Precipitation will continue as upper level jet dynamics continue to be favorable for lift.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Monday night into Tuesday, a strong cold front will push southeast, ending precipitation across much of the area as drier air works in aloft from the northwest and upper support exits to the east. However, model consensus shows increasing confidence that the front will slow across central Kentucky as a wave develops along it. This provides impetus for a precipitation shield to potentially touch our far southeastern counties (Scioto and Lewis), where light snow may develop on the cold side of the boundary. Added up to an inch of wet snow there, though admittedly the uncertainty is high as to the exact cutoff of the precipitation.

Temperatures will fall starting late Monday evening, then continue falling through the day on Tuesday. Skies will likely remain cloudy through the period under strong CAA conditions.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Any lingering light snow across our extreme southeast should taper off through Tuesday evening. With surface high pressure building in from the west, we should see an overall decreasing cloud trend through Tuesday night. The surface high will continue to build east into the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the axis of coldest air aloft shifting east across our area. This will help keep highs on Wednesday generally in the low to mid 30s. With the high centered just off to our northeast by Thursday morning, will undercut temps a bit for Wednesday night and go with lows in the teens. Thursday will also be dry and continued seasonably cool as the high shifts slowly off to the east. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft mid week will become somewhat more amplified heading into the weekend as a series of mid level short waves move east out of the Plains. This will lead to a developing surface low over the eastern US, but the models continue to struggle with timing and placement of this. Nonetheless, in developing southerly lower level flow across the region on Friday, we should see some moisture advection up into our area. With still some uncertainty though, will just allow for some chance pops to spread across the region, mainly from Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will moderate some through the end of the week, with highs Friday through Sunday mostly in the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Rain is currently increasing at the terminals, and MVFR ceilings will soon develop based on model guidance. Expecting these to lower into IFR cigs by later this morning into early afternoon with continued periods of rain, with IFR visby also possible in mist.

TCVG radar currently measuring 45 knots of elevated wind out of the southwest at 2,000 feet AGL. These elevated winds will spread to the north and east this morning, with LLWS inserted at all terminals due to speed shear. Less certain are wind gusts in the 20-25 knot range mixing down to the surface, but did add them into the TAFs for the afternoon hours.

Expecting low cloud bases to lift into MVFR levels by later this evening due to some drying in the low levels after the rain ends. Latest guidance is slower to return VFR conditions until potentially by the end of the CVG TAF time frame.

OUTLOOK . No significant weather is expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. KY . None. IN . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hogue NEAR TERM . Hogue SHORT TERM . Hogue LONG TERM . JGL AVIATION . Hogue

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	80 mi	74 min	S 4.1	48°F			1007 hPa	43°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	81 mi	59 min	S 9.9 G 15	47°F			1005.1 hPa (-2.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	88 mi	65 min	SSE 8 G 17	47°F	38°F		1005.7 hPa	44°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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S6 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH	15 mi	66 min	SSE 11	8.00 mi	Light Rain	47°F	44°F	90%	1007.4 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH	16 mi	64 min	S 11	5.00 mi	Overcast	47°F	45°F	94%	1006.4 hPa
Marion, Marion Municipal Airport, OH	22 mi	66 min	S 12	4.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	47°F	44°F	90%	1007.4 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH	22 mi	68 min	SSE 11	7.00 mi	Light Rain	47°F	44°F	90%	1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSU

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH

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