Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oceanport, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly south and east of the urban I-95 corridor. A localized flash flood risk today for mainly portions of Delmarva. It then turns much drier and pleasant for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly south and east of the urban I-95 corridor. A localized flash flood risk today for mainly portions of Delmarva. It then turns much drier and pleasant for the end of the week.

A strong upper-level trough will remain across the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic regions today into Thursday. Some additional shortwave energy will continue to slide across our area today as a result.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough will gradually arrive later today. The deep moisture continues to shift eastward today given the eastward progression of the upper- level trough. While a surface trough has shifted offshore overall, the main cold front will arrive by later today. The forecast challenge is how much convection redevelops ahead of the cold front through this afternoon. The majority of the guidance is limited with convective redevelopment through today with the arrival of the cold front. The combination of greater instability and shear looks to reside near Delmarva and especially on southward where the severe thunderstorm risk looks a bit higher. For our area, an isolated severe thunderstorm risk is present mostly focused south and east of the I-95 urban corridor this afternoon. If a few storms can become strong enough, then conditions look favorable for locally strong to damaging outflow driven winds.

There will be drier air gradually working in from the west and northwest through today, which will result in the dew points gradually lowering from north to south through this afternoon.
Despite the deeper plume of moisture shifting eastward today resulting in the precipitable water values decreasing with time, it will still be very near Delmarva. Therefore, some local flash flooding risk for that area if some deeper convection occurs and moves over areas that just recently had heavy rainfall. This risk looks even lower if convective coverage ends up remaining less. Once the front moves away later today into tonight, it turns much drier and pleasant for the end of the week and right into the weekend.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings should all lower to MVFR, possibly locally IFR, through early this morning, then conditions improve to VFR by late this morning. A few showers and thunderstorms possible especially south and east of KPHL this afternoon. For now, included a PROB30 for a thunderstorm at KMIV and KACY during the afternoon. Southwest winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots by later this morning, then becoming west to west-northwest this afternoon. Low confidence.

Tonight...A shower or thunderstorm possible early mainly near KMIV and KACY, otherwise VFR. Northwest to north winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Southwesterly flow will gust to advisory criteria (25 knots) at times this morning, otherwise the winds are expected to diminish some through the day. Seas remain elevated on the ocean zones, where a Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening. The conditions will continue to improve on Delaware Bay through early this morning.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

For today, southwesterly winds 10-20 mph however breaking waves in the surf zone will be as high as 5 feet. Still a 7 second period which will mitigate the rip current threat some, however will continue with a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For Thursday, winds out of the north and northeast 10-20 mph.
Breaking waves are expected to be 2-4 feet with a 7 second period.
With the onshore component of the wind and multiple swell groups expected, will maintain a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.