Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:27PM Monday July 13, 2020 11:33 AM EDT (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:49AMMoonset 1:51PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 542 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early, then slight chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 542 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak front remains nearly stationary across the area today before moving offshore overnight. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night and Wednesday, before shifting offshore on Thursday. The next frontal boundary approaches the region on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven borough, NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 131317 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 917 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will linger across the area today before moving slowly offshore tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build into the eastern U.S. for midweek. A backdoor cold front may move into the northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low pressure will move near or through the region on Friday, bringing a cold front through the region. This front may stall just south of the area this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast mainly on track. Any lingering fog and low clouds have mostly burned off, any lingering fog and stratus should burn off this hour.

Cold front is mostly offshore, and high pressure builds in from the west. This will lead to developing west-northwest flow today and drier air filtering into the region. Given this, afternoon convection is unlikely. Shortwave energy to our north and east could yield convection over New England today, and the tail section of the front to our south, which is not yet offshore, could lead to convection over coastal portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. But the local forecast area is a dry pocket in between those areas, though cannot completely rule out a shower across the far north and near the coast.

In terms of temperatures today, some cold advection will be occurring aloft as troughing moves overhead. However, it is quite weak, and will be compensated for by more efficient sensible heating in the drying air mass. So it still looks like a warm day today (mid to upper 80s, locally near 90) but with tolerable humidity. A pretty nice summer day overall.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. A pleasant night is expected tonight as the front moves further offshore and drier air continues to filter in. Clear skies and light winds will help temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s in the suburban and rural area. A nice break from the recent warm and humid weather.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A fairly potent trough will be moving through New England on Tuesday, with some cold air aloft likely sufficient to generate showers/storms during the day. There are two main questions regarding the convection. The first question is how far south the convection can develop, as our CWA will be on the southwest fringe of the larger-scale lift. The second question is how far east will the trough axis be once sufficient insolation develops for convective initiation. General consensus is that the trough axis will be offshore by 18z Tuesday, which is not especially promising for much precipitation coverage for our area. As a result, think chances for precipitation in our area are quite minimal, and generally have unmentionable PoPs on Tuesday. However, this will necessitate some watching, as it is not out of the question some scattered showers move into areas north of I-80 at some point.

The main story for the Tuesday and Wednesday period is the relative quiet. Slightly lower dew points will combine with some modest cooling upstream of the cold front finally moving offshore to produce a couple of generally pleasant days. Forecast highs/lows will be near to just slightly above seasonal averages. More rural/sheltered locations may have somewhat cooler lows than forecast, as well. Another factor will be a backdoor cold front moving into at least the northern/eastern CWA associated with the departing shortwave trough. This should allow for some noticeable cooling on Wednesday (perhaps seeping into most of the CWA), as onshore flow becomes more onshore-oriented.

Midlevel ridging moves into the region Wednesday night and Thursday, but an upstream perturbation will be quick to move into the Northeast by Thursday night. The attendant front will likely take its time moving through the Mid-Atlantic, however, owing to strong subtropical ridging to the south and east. Models are a little nebulous regarding the exact evolution of convection in tandem with the frontal passage. The front will likely be undergoing some frontolysis, owing to the aforementioned downstream ridging. Additionally, the track of the perturbation will be well north of the region, so more substantial large-scale lift will be well poleward of the area. However, warm/moist advection within the warm sector will be ongoing Thursday and Friday, so diurnal heating and sub-synoptic lifting mechanisms will likely generate scattered convection.

There are some indications two rounds of precipitation may occur in conjunction with this frontal passage. The first is associated with the progressive perturbation moving into the Northeast Thursday night. This would generate precipitation mainly for the northern CWA. The second would be more closely associated with the front and (perhaps) an upstream perturbation on Friday. Notably, the 00z GFS/CMC/ECMWF all hint at this scenario to some degree. As such, feel that a decent broad-brush of chance PoPs are warranted Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

Additionally, the front will likely stall just to our south this weekend. It may be in close enough proximity to permit more chances for convection, though the general appearance from deterministic models is for some drying on the north side of the front. Should this be the case, most of next weekend could end up being mostly rain-free.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will likely be near seasonal averages, as clouds/precipitation may hinder more substantial warming. The weekend may end up being slightly warmer if this period ends up mostly dry.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR. Winds mainly west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, though may be more southwesterly near the coast. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Northwest wind around 5 kt, though winds may turn light and variable or calm in some areas. High confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday and Tuesday night . VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming light northerly overnight. High confidence.

Wednesday and Wednesday night . Mainly VFR. East or southeast winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night . Mainly VFR, though chances for showers and storms increase. Brief restrictions possible in their proximity. Southeast winds 5 to 15 kt becoming southerly Thursday night. Low confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR, though chances for showers/storms continue, with brief restrictions possible. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Low confidence.

MARINE. Through Monday night . Seas on the Atlantic coastal waters will run around 4 ft for much of the day today and may approach 5 ft, however no SCA headlines are planned at this time. Seas will gradually begin to diminish during the overnight. Winds mainly SW at around 10 kt through today, becoming NW at around 10 kt this evening into tonight.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Wednesday night . Sub-advisory winds/seas and fair weather expected.

Thursday through Friday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. A chance of showers/storms, with locally higher waves and gusty winds in their proximity.

Rip Currents . A moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is forecast to continue through today. Breezy southwesterly winds will combine with a medium-period southeasterly swell to yield the continued moderate risk conditions. Surf heights will generally be 2 to 4 feet. By Tuesday seas will come down by about a foot as offshore flow prevails, so current thinking is that the rip risk will fall to low levels on Tuesday.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . MPS/O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/O'Brien Marine . CMS/Carr/O'Brien Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 7 mi45 min W 6 G 7 77°F 79°F1009.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi23 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 1008.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi45 min 81°F 78°F1009 hPa
MHRN6 21 mi45 min WNW 8 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi45 min W 5.1 G 7 80°F 1008.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi45 min 79°F 77°F1008.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi45 min NNE 1 G 1.9 79°F 1009.2 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi48 min S 3.9 G 3.9 82°F 70°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi51 min NNW 2.9 G 7 79°F 79°F1010.4 hPa
44091 43 mi67 min 76°F3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi23 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 1008.9 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 48 mi33 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 1 ft68°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi57 min WNW 2.9 G 8 77°F 79°F1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ14 mi37 minVar 610.00 miFair83°F69°F63%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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SW6SW5S5S5S5W3W5N4W3E3CalmW3SW3W6W7W76
1 day agoSE8SE7S7S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:27 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM EDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:58 PM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.21.20.90.4-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.7-1.4-1-0.50.41.21.41.30.90.2-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.