Whitaker, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

June 16, 2024 7:19 AM EDT (11:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:53 PM
Moonrise 2:43 PM   Moonset 1:19 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whitaker, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 161040 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A large ridge will build over the region today and remain in place through the rest of next week. A prolonged and potentially dangerous heat wave is anticipated under this ridge.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warmer weather but still comfortable.

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6:30am Update: No major changes have been made to this forecast period. Temperatures, dew points, and wind speed/direction were adjusted to reflect current obs.

Previous Dicussion:

Ridge axis will slowly move over the region today as the ridge itself amplifies. Warm air advection is expected throughout the day and temperatures will rise through the 80s and approach 90 mainly from PIT south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues.
- Noticeably warmer temperatures on Sunday.
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A dry and balmy night is expected, with lows in the mid and upper 60s.

Latest ensemble data shows a continued amplification of the ridge on Monday, with 591dm building to the north of the forecast area. The forecast headache Monday is the risk for cu development and scattered showers and storms. Deterministic models are showing a weak shortwave moving northeastward over top of the ridge, leaving SW Ohio Monday morning and reaching SW PA during the afternoon. The response to this wave is at least an increase in cu with the risk for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Ensemble data is indicating measurable precipitation across much of the region sometime Monday, although this will be overdone as the activity will be mesoscale. But even some of the CAMS are showing popup shower and storms Monday afternoon across a large portion of the area.
Models are in agreement that the atmosphere will become unstable Monday afternoon, but this is to be expected with surface dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Models are also in line with very warm air aloft overspreading the area.
+16c to +18c at 850mb and +9c to +11c at 700mb. So even though the atmosphere is unstable, those are very warm temperatures aloft which should provide an atmospheric cap Monday afternoon.
Additionally, there is the highly anomalous ridge providing strong subsidence as it continues to amplify.

Latest NBM probs for measurable rainfall are generally 30 to 40% across the entire area Monday. This seems high when factoring in everything working against convection. The ridges may be the place to watch as the low-level flow would bring orographic lift into the equation which could be enough to overcome those limiting ingredients. CAMS and deterministic models are focusing more on the ridges Monday afternoon.

So if we do see an increase in clouds or perhaps convection, this will obviously effect Mondays temperatures. Seeing this in the latest model data as well. Latest NBM has lowered probabilities of >95 degrees on Monday for much of the region, focusing the higher probs in low-lying and rural areas. It will still be hot, but not maximizing the potential just yet.

Ridge continues to amplify on Tuesday as we see heights of 594dm-596dm across the region. 850mb temperatures continue to rise as well as +18C to +20c spreads northward across the entire forecast area. Still seeing indications of a shower/storm threat Tuesday as more waves of energy rotate overtop of the ridge.
However, the NBM has shifted focus for activity on Tuesday further north toward the I-80 corridor as everything is forced northward due to the expanding 500mb heights. The story for activity Tuesday remains the same as Monday, but the area under the threat has decreased.

So what does that mean for temperatures Tuesday? With the strengthening ridge and warming aloft, would think that cu coverage, for most of the region, would decrease on Tuesday, which should translate into hotter surface temperatures. This is showing up in the NBM probabilities for highs >95 degrees.
Probs of 50-70% have spread across most of the region, outside of the mountain tops and even starting to see probs of >98 degrees in low lying and rural areas. So this will be a building heat that should increase from Monday into Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in a dangerous heat wave holding through the week with major heat impacts possible.
- Seeing some timing differences on when the hottest air arrives.
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The numbers and timing of the most extreme heat continue to evolve, but our overall expectations have not changed for this period. We are looking at a potentially historic heat wave for Pittsburgh and the Upper Ohio Valley, with impacts to public health and utilities a possibility.

Model cluster analysis continues to paint a high-confidence picture of the overall pattern. An anomalously strong 500 mb ridge will persist over the eastern CONUS through Friday and possibly into early Saturday, reaching its peak during the Wednesday/Thursday period, before potentially becoming a bit more muted Saturday.
Both the EPS and GEFS means have 500mb heights of 597dm or higher during that period. This sets the stage for a prolonged period of high temperatures well into the 90s. NBM probabilities of highs >95 increase and expand both Wednesday and Thursday, with probabilities >100 sneaking in Thursday. There is a possibility that these values are underdone. Given the strength/position of this ridge, precipitation chances and cloud development are quite low, especially during the Wed-Fri period, which will cause an increasing dry surface, promoting higher temperatures. Given that sun angles are at their annual peak, insolation will add another warming factor. This will be a building heat, that will slightly increase each day.

When considering dewpoints, heat index values in the 100 to 110 range are in the cards for a few days. There does remain some uncertainty in how widespread and long-lasting these kind of heat index values will be from day to day. This normally has implications for what kinds of heat-related headlines would be appropriate. However, we feel that this event will have a length and impact that the standard criteria may not capture. So the Excessive Heat Watch will remain in place for the entire forecast area Monday through Friday.

There are still uncertainties with the forecast. But signals this impressive do not come around very often.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Gather food, water and medication now. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare. Strongly consider rescheduling outdoor events. Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023.

Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions and light winds prevail throughout the TAF period under building high pressure.

Outlook
High probability for VFR and dry weather through the middle of next week as strong ridging develops aloft.

The only variance may come with isolated afternoon convection starting Monday, but upper ridging should suppress coverage and potential initiation.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records. In this climate section, we will attempt to address some of the higher-profile historical temperature records.

First, we cannot rule out that some sites approach all time record high temperatures:

Pittsburgh, PA: 103F (7/16/1988, 8/6/1918, 7/10/1881)
Wheeling, WV: 106F (7/22/1934, 8/6/1918)
Morgantown, WV: 105F (8/26/1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 102F (7/17/1988)
Zanesville, OH: 106F (7/14/1936, 7/25/1934)
DuBois, PA: 101F (07/22/2011)

There is moderate probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

Due to the how early in the summer this heat wave is, there is a high probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 100F (1933)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988,1934)
DuBois, PA: 92F (1969)

Due to the duration of the heat, sites will also approach records for consecutive days greater than 95F (dates are the day the streak ended):

Pittsburgh, PA: 6 (6/20/1994, 8/11/1900)
Wheeling, WV: 8 (7/15/1936)
Morgantown, WV: 9 (9/16/1997, 7/19/1892)
New Philadelphia, OH: 5 (7/27/2016, 7/10/1988)
Zanesville, OH: 9 (9/4/1953)
DuBois, PA: 3 (7/9/1988)

And it should go without question that daily high maximum (left)
and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Monday, June 17th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 75F (1892)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1936) 69F (2004)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1967) 72F (1939)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1967) 69F (2022)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1936) 72F (1994)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1994) 66F (1892)

Tuesday, June 18th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 73F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1944) 71F (2018)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1994) 70F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 72F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1944) 73F (1944)
DuBois, PA: 89F (2018) 69F (2018)

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975)

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAGC ALLEGHENY COUNTY,PA 4 sm26 minNE 049 smClear61°F52°F72%30.17
KPIT PITTSBURGH INTL,PA 19 sm28 minENE 0310 smOvercast61°F52°F72%30.17
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