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FXUS61 KPBZ 012344 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 644 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
An unsettled pattern will bring periodic precipitation chances through next week. Warm temperatures are expected this weekend with a cool down next week. Rain and snow will be possible by mid-week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Evening Update...The only notable adjustment to the near term this evening was to lower PoPs across the area given the latest satellite water vapor imagery and radar trends, both over the local area and upstream. Any light rain showers that continue tonight should be isolated to scattered in nature and will produce negligible additional rainfall amounts. The rest of the near-term forecast remains on track. Details can be found in the previous discussion below.

Previous Discussion...
Latest radar and satellite imagery show drier air has moved across the area, with best rain coverage mainly north of I-80 and across the ridges at this time. However, with still- saturated low-levels and weak, broad isentropic ascent into the overnight, expect periods of very light rain and drizzle to continue through early Saturday. Loss of upper support as the shortwave trough zooms northeast should further limit widespread precipitation this evening. Best coverage of light rain/drizzle is likely to be north of Pittsburgh after midnight tonight, dwindling through the early morning hours.

As the surface low shifts just north of the area overnight, a period of warm air advection in southwesterly flow, along with overcast skies, will keep evening temperatures from dropping off before increasing a few degrees in the pre-dawn hours.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The surface low will fill Saturday morning with height rises expected as a deep trough digs across the central US. This should keep the region relatively dry after lingering early morning rain/drizzle exits the area. PoPs will increase again late Saturday afternoon/evening, primarily along/south of a remnant boundary from today's surface low. The location of this feature will determine coverage of rain, but this is most likely to be for southern portions of the region: generally along/south of I-70.

We should expect a surge of warmer air on Saturday which will push our temperatures well above normal. With the NBM 50th and 90th pct resting on either side of the mid 50s to mid 60s, temperatures 10+ degrees above normal looks like a good bet.
Given recent bias, have nudges towards 90th pct.

Another shortwave and weak surface low will cross the region on Sunday. This will return the risk for widespread light rain through much of the day, decreasing in the evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A deeper upper trough is expected to cross the region on Monday.
General eastern CONUS troughing should then continue through late-week. A series of shortwave troughs traversing this flow will keep periodic rain and snow chances in the forecast for much of the week.

Ensembles show that temperature will trend near to just below normal for most of the long term. Best snow chance is expected Wednesday/Thursday with a more vigorous shortwave and stronger push of cold air, though plentiful uncertainty remains.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIFR and IFR cigs are prevalent across the region as temperatures cool slightly overnight into abundant moisture.
Forcing may be enough to maintain very isolated showers, but overall, drizzle seems to be the more likely precipitation type through dawn. Low-level saturation under 850mb with a cap overhead will keep the region saturated. LIFR and IFR will persist with high probability through around 06Z correspondingly.

Afterwards, low level dry air will arrive and attempt to raise cigs slightly into the early morning, but this will fight diurnal trends. Improvements were forecast corresponding with 50% MVFR cig probability thresholds. There is the potential for cigs to not improve to MVFR by dawn for some ports depending on the degree of dry advection. Drizzle was maintained for most ports through tomorrow morning until mixing aids in drying out low levels. Northern ports will likely be slower to improve and have a higher probability of vis restrictions through dawn.

By tomorrow afternoon, improvements to VFR remain the most likely for PIT, AGC, LBE, HLG, and ZZV at roughly 75%.
Elsewhere, improvements to VFR are around 50% for now.

OUTLOOK
Warm and moist southwest flow will continue overnight Saturday, bringing additional chances of restrictions with 80% to 100% probability of MVFR or lower conditions. The passage of a surface low on Sunday will allow higher PoPs to arrive and allow restriction potential to continue.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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