Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers to wind down near sunrise - Drier and cooler Wednesday - Rain chances rise again late Wednesday night -------------------------------------------------------------------

The cold front has swept through the majority of our region at this time. Showers can continue in our southeastern ridges until closer to sunrise as the front clears. A dry, sunny and cooler day is anticipated across the region for Wednesday as 500mb heights rise and SFC high pressure slides eastward across the Ohio Valley. High temperatures are expected to be near to just a couple degrees above average for this time of year but around 15 degrees cooler than those observed Tuesday.

Low pressure develops across the southern plains late Wednesday afternoon and quickly drives northward overnight. An advancing warm front will lift through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night ahead of this system raising shower chances.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- The front remains south of Pittsburgh Wednesday, with mostly dry weather.
- Front returns north Wednesday night with scattered showers - Increased rain chances Thursday with another severe weather chance -------------------------------------------------------------------

An upper shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley Thursday into Thursday night ahead of a deepening trough. The attendant SFC low advances through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes placing us in the widening warm sector. Southerly flow throughout the day allows for stout warm advection that spurs our high temperatures back 10-15 degrees above average.

Rain chances increase during the day and night with a possibility of severe thunderstorms. Strong southerly flow in the warm sector draws in gulf moisture and helps dew points surge into the 60s. HRRR joint probabilities of CAPE and Shear show a largely 60-75% chance to see at least 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 30KTs of shear across the region. This along with supportive model soundings hint at growing confidence in another possible severe event featuring storms firing in the afternoon/evening hours along a pre-frontal trough. Damaging wind gusts seem the most likely threat with a lower threat of hail. The SPC has raised their Day 2 threat to a Slight Risk in several of our OH counties and a couple of our PA counties. The Marginal Risk remains in place to the east of this across virtually the entire forecast area except eastern Tucker Co.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Higher confidence rain chances continues into Saturday - Low confidence rain chances could continue into next week depending on an uncertain upper level pattern -------------------------------------------------------------------

The upper trough deepens and slides over the region Friday into Saturday continuing wet weather into the weekend. Clustered ensemble analysis shows a pattern for a possibly slower and deeper trough (mostly driven by the Euro) prolonging cooler and showery conditions. Despite continued shower chances in moist southwest flow, few ensembles indicate heavy rain potential. The NBM maintains a largely 40-50% chance of greater than 0.50 inches of rainfall in the 48-hr period ending Saturday morning.

After Saturday things diverge a bit. Clustered ensembles show a consistent signal for omega blocking setting up with a central CONUS ridge and an eastern CONUS cutoff low. Confidence in this pattern seems rather high but the far lower confidence piece is exactly where these features will setup. If the cutoff low settles overhead then we will continue to see below average temperatures and shower chances. If the ridge can set up farther east and closer to us we could see warmer and drier conditions. For now, stuck with the NBM depiction given the large amount of uncertainty.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Dry weather, light winds, and clearing skies expected through much of the TAF period as high pressure briefly builds back into the area.

Outlook...
Occasional restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return early Thursday as a warm front lifts north and continue thereafter through Thursday night and Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. VFR returns Saturday under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.