Whitaker, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

June 19, 2024 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM
Moonrise 6:00 PM   Moonset 2:32 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whitaker , PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 191659 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1259 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A dangerous heat wave will impact the region this week. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning are in effect through Friday.
This event is highly unusual for our region and could be worse than the 1994 heat wave.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Excessive Heat Warning for the urban areas of western PA; Heat Advisory continues elsewhere.
- Heat index values ranging from 100F to 110F.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible again this afternoon with downbursts the primary threat.
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The ridge aloft will shift a bit further south today with the axis extending back to the west and into the southern portions of the forecast area. As a result, heights will modestly rise and this will likely be enough to keep convection to a minimum across most of our area. Cirrus coverage through the morning has precluded a lot of our area from reaching convective temperatures yet, but some cumulus are starting to pop along the ridges. Hi res ensemble probabilities and latest CAMs favor development along the lake breeze and a differential heating zone in north central Ohio where the cirrus has scattered out, so coverage in our area should be less than the past two days and confined north and west of Pittsburgh. The threat will once again be damaging winds from downbursts with up to 1300 J/kg of DCAPE, 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and up to 30 knots of effective shear present on mesoanalysis. Storms should begin to pop after 17z with outflow boundaries keeping convection going through the day. A Marginal Risk (1/5) remains in place north of Pittsburgh. Precipitable water values remain above 1.5", highest to the north, so localized heavy rainfall under persistent thunderstorms is again possible.

Once again, expect heat indices to cross the 100 degree mark this afternoon, especially in the urban areas and east of Pittsburgh as aforementioned cirrus coverage has muted heating a bit across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Heading into the overnight, convection should wane by 00z. Localized patches of fog will be possible again tonight and most likely in the river valleys.
Low temps tonight will once again be in the lower 70s to mid 70s allowing for little relief from the heat overnight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Confidence is high that hot conditions will continue through Friday, Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remains in effect.
- Chances for afternoon convection decreases but the better chance will continue to be more to the north of Pittsburgh.

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The ridge axis remain situated across the East Coast through the weekend. 500mb heights will range between 596 dm to 598 dm on Thursday as the ridge extends into Newfoundland and Quebec.
Record breaking afternoon high temperatures and overnight maximum low temperatures continue in this time period.

The hottest time period is expected to be Thursday into Friday where mid-90s to upper-90s; the NBM 25th percentile suggests low to mid-90s across the region.

Elevated high temperatures and dewpoints will keep heat indices at and above 100 through the period. Low temperatures will also remain elevated with the probability > 70 around 50-80% both nights.

Considering heat effects will be cumulative, late week looks particularly dangerous. The early season event, and temperatures increasing slightly each day, will compound any existing heat issues.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare.
Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023. For our region, this heat wave may be compared to our worse than June of 1994.

Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot temperatures are expected to continue into Saturday; heat products may need to be extended in the next 24 to 48 hours.
- Relief from the heat may return with a passing trough over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday.
- A weaker ridge builds in after Monday.

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The upper-level ridge will continue hot and humid conditions into the region through Saturday. Heat products may need to be extended.

Ensemble models project a trough forming over the Midwest and ejecting into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday that may bestow some relief to the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures may still remain above average, but Heat Advisories/Warnings may not be necessary.

After the passage of the trough on Monday, another upper level ridge begins to move over the Upper Ohio Valley region. Although this ridge will likely lack the staying power of last weeks ridge. That said, there is still a potential for greater than 90 degree temps.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Afternoon thunderstorms are less likely today, and storms that do form are expected to stay generally north of I-80. Have included a PROB30 for FKL to account for this.

Winds remain light and variable with a generally southerly component.

Outlook
High probability for VFR and dry weather through the week as strong ridging develops aloft. Restrictions with rain may return late this weekend with a cold front.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records.

There is low probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

There is a modest probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

PIT: 98F (1988)
HLG: 100F (1933)
MGW: 99F (1893)
PHD: 99F (1988)
ZZV: 101F (1988,1934)
DUJ: 92F (1969) * RECORD TIED ON 6/18/24*

Daily high maximum (left) and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975)

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ007>009-013-015- 016-022-031-074-076>078.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ014-020- 021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>511.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAGC ALLEGHENY COUNTY,PA 4 sm40 minS 0410 smClear86°F70°F59%30.33
KPIT PITTSBURGH INTL,PA 19 sm42 minSSW 0710 smOvercast88°F68°F52%30.34
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