West Homestead, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Homestead, PA

June 18, 2024 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM
Moonrise 4:52 PM   Moonset 2:03 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Homestead, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 180548 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 148 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A prolonged period of hot temperatures is expected with high pressure. Hottest temperatures are anticipated Wednesday through Friday. Isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm low temperatures are expected overnight.

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Midnight Update: All but a single lingering light shower has dissipated as instability wanes. A mostly quiet overnight period is expected.
Latest HRRR model runs continue to indicate spotty morning convection over easter Ohio near 12z, but this seems to be overdone. Convective activity, outside of a stray morning shower/storm, is likely to hold off until Tuesday afternoon.

Overnight temperatures will remain elevated, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the lingering moisture.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat continues to build through midweek.
- Isolated storms possible Tuesday afternoon.
- Dry and hot Wednesday.

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Ridge will continue to amplify on Tuesday, with the center of the surface inflection pivoting westward with time through Wednesday. Given how efficient heating has been today, think Tuesday will be much of the same, if not even hotter given the rising heights aloft. At this time, the probability of > 95 is around 25-35% with near 70% in the urban areas.

As we will still remain on the periphery of the building ridge, weaknesses riding along the ridge will maintain at least low end chances for showers and storms. Also, the southeasterly surface wind will enhance orographic effects which could be enough to overcome the subsidence from the very strong ridge. If convection does fire Tuesday afternoon, outflows from storms could run down the western side of the ridges and develop more activity away from the mountains. This threat should come into better focus over the next couple of model runs.

Ridge will be firmly in place by Wednesday with ensembles showing heights of 597-599dm. Given the region will be centered in the ridge, the threat for convection should decrease. The probability of temperatures > 95 degrees is even higher on Wednesday with 40 to 60% covering most of the region outside of the mountains; near 90% in the urban areas.

Elevated high temperatures and dewpoints will keep heat indices at and above 100 through the period. Low temperatures will also remain elevated with the probability > 70 around 50-80% both nights.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in a dangerous heat wave holding through the end of the week with heat impacts possible.
- Probabilities are pointing to Thursday and Friday being the hottest days of the week.

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The highly anomalous ridge will remain in place Thursday, but ensemble data is now hinting the ridge will begin to slowly weaken on Friday.

Thursday and Friday should be dry as the area will remain under the influence of the ridge's subsidence.

Probabilities for high temperatures > 95 both Thursday and Friday are the highest of the week. The higher probabilities are also spread out more Thursday and Friday. Generally looking at probs of 50 to 80% both days.

With surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat indices will continue to hold right around 100 degrees.

This would mean at least 5 days of daytime heat indices near 100 degrees.

Considering heat effect will be cumulative, late week is looking particularly dangerous. The early season event, and temperatures increasing slightly each day, will compound any existing heat issues.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare.
Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023.

This certainly is increasing slightly that there will be some relaxation to the heat by early next week, but any relaxation will still leave temperatures well above average. In the Saturday-Sunday timeframe, all clusters reflect some flattening of the ridge, but disagree on the degree of flattening. Some maintain zonal flow or perhaps even weak eastern troughing early next week, but even the coolest scenarios have temperatures around average to start next week. The warmest scenarios maintain near-record heat. SHould we stay quasi-zonal into next week, we may get slight relief, but there as a notable fraction on ensemble guidance that redevelops eastern ridging. CPC maintains a moderate risk of excessive heat through 6/24.

Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the night and into the dawn hours of Tuesday morning. Moisture produced this past evening and afternoon from thunderstorms may result in some fog development in the usual areas. This may impact terminals but confidence is low in this occurrence. A weak surface trough that has been the culprit for the area will remain in place into the coming day as well. In fact, expect the chance of a few showers developing and moving north into eastern OH through dawn.

Heading into the day, any impacts to terminals will be solely due to thunderstorms. However, the lack of strong forcing and multiple boundaries put down by the convective activity from the previous day will lead to less confidence in timing and location of development heading into Tuesday afternoon. With daytime heating and remnant boundaries, expect initiation to take place between 16Z and 18Z. Convection is expected to then persist into the late afternoon and evening, possibly dissipating earlier than the previous day by 00Z. Thus have put VCTS to all terminals today to account for the uncertainty in location ands timing. Once again, conditions due to fog tomorrow night will be dependent on location of convection. Expect light and variable winds through the day with the exception of thunderstorms.

Outlook
High probability for VFR and dry weather through the week as strong ridging develops aloft.

The only variance may come with isolated afternoon convection on Wednesday, but upper ridging should suppress coverage and potential initiation.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records.

There is low probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

There is a modest probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 100F (1933)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988,1934)
DuBois, PA: 92F (1969)

Daily high maximum (left) and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Tuesday, June 18th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 73F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1944) 71F (2018)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1994) 70F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 72F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1944) 73F (1944)
DuBois, PA: 89F (2018) 69F (2018)

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975)

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>511.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAGC ALLEGHENY COUNTY,PA 4 sm14 minSSE 0410 smClear72°F66°F83%30.16
KPIT PITTSBURGH INTL,PA 18 sm16 minSSE 0310 smPartly Cloudy70°F66°F88%30.16
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