Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday January 25, 2020 4:31 AM EST (09:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:56AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 407 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est this morning through this afternoon...
Today..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming se 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain this morning, then rain this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 407 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the southwest today and passes through the waters this evening. The low will then deepen as it lifts northeast into the canadian maritimes on Sunday. High pressure will gradually build in from the west through next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 250901 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 401 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure and an associated cold front will cross the Middle Altantic region today. The low will further deepen as it moves across New England tonight and into Sunday. High pressure will then begin to build across the area early next week. A weak low will pass well south of the area Tuesday. The next storm will affect the area towards the end of the week and into early next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The storm system we have been tracking for several days is now arriving. Stepping back to the synoptic level, it is an impressive picture early this morning over the eastern third of the US. A parent area of low pressure has tracked into the Great Lakes and is now occluded. A classic comma shaped cloud pattern is present around it, with high clouds seen on satellite extending from the Great Lakes all the way down to off the coast of Florida. The strength of the low level jet is evident from the cloud pattern, and indeed 850mb winds in that band of cold cloud tops are 55-70kts. Intense FGEN forcing is being analyzed within that band. It's interesting to note that the strong forcing associated with this axis of clouds and heavy precip may be a big part of the reason why the forecast has trended warmer (more on that below). Low level forcing is likely proving too strong for coastal low pressure to establish itself at our latitude. That combined with the fact that the parent surface low and its accompanying upper low have tracked well northwest of prior projections have led to the substantially warmer solution that is now playing out. A great case study of synoptic meteorology.

In terms of our sensible weather, the overall philosophy remains the same, but with a few tweaks to the details. As mentioned above, the trend with this system continues to be warmer. Nearly all areas in the CWA are safely above freezing and do not appear poised to drop below it. The only exceptions are in parts of Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex Counties, where some areas have dipped below freezing or appear that they may do so. This is mainly in the higher terrain. Because of this, have dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for Lehigh, Northampton, Warren, and Morris Counties, but maintained it for those other three counties. Again, the trends are for lower impacts in terms of icing with amounts likely to be under a tenth of an inch in most of the advisory area. It is possible the latest forecast is still too high overall on icing, but given some areas such as MPO are already below freezing it should not be a total shutout in terms of ice accretion in the higher terrain.

The bigger story today will be the rain. Very anomalous moisture fetch with this system and definitely some sub-tropical connections with that fetch. PWATs surge to 1-1.25 inches as this band of moisture moves through, within striking distance of the record maximums for this time of year based on SPC sounding climatology. Negative tilt of the upper trough associated with this storm is helping to drive a more north-south orientation to the rain axis, which will mean most areas see a solid 3-5 hours of bona fide moderate to heavy rain. Good agreement in the hi res guidance for a general 1-1.5 inches of rain but potentially 1.5-2 inches along and west of the Fall Line over eastern PA. Given most of the rain will come in just a few hours, there could be some poor drainage and small stream flooding today, but recent dryness and lack of snow cover will temper that risk. Respectable rises are likely on many of the main stem rivers as well, but they should stay below flood stage.

A period of gusty winds is possible as the heavier rain moves through, but the low levels are quite stable so not thinking the strong winds aloft are going to mix down very well. The risk of thunder is looking quite low (I have removed mention of it from the forecast), so while an isolated rumble is possible there does not appear to be enough elevated instability to produce the sort of robust convection which could help drag down some of those winds. Still, some brief 30-40mph gusts are possible. Highs soaring into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s for most areas today despite the clouds and rain, as there is a strong push of low level warm air associated with this storm.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Tonight . While a spotty rain or snow shower will be possible across the far north on developing westerly flow, the vast majority of tonight will be dry as today's storm pulls away to the north. Cooler air will start to bleed into the region, but only gradually as lows will only drop into the low 30s for most.

Sunday . Westerly flow continues on Sunday as both surface and upper level areas of low pressure move further north. Should be a mainly dry day but probably plenty of stratocumulus especially to the northwest with steep low level lapse rates. A sprinkle or flurry is possible across the Poconos and northern NJ. Otherwise, Sunday looks like a rather nice day. Despite the westerly flow there is no cold air to the northwest to tap into (a common theme this winter) so highs will end up mostly a few degrees above average: upper 30s and low 40s to the north with mid to upper 40s further south. The pressure gradient behind the departing low is not strong, and wind gusts Sunday should only reach 20-25mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long term forecast was not edited overnight due to focus on near term concerns. Looks to be a mainly quiet and high pressure dominated week until perhaps the very end of the week or next weekend, but very low confidence on any potential storminess for that period. The previous long term discussion is included below.

Fairly quiet weather expected as low pressure continues to move away over Atlantic Canada while high pressure will gradually build down from the north and west with time. This will keep the region predominately in a dry W/NW flow through most of next week. Most days should feature a good deal of sunshine though some shortwaves riding through the upper level flow will bring some cloudier periods from time to time. Temperatures look to generally be near to a little above late January averages. Early indications are that the next storm system could impact the area next weekend but it's too early to forecast any specifics with this system.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Lowering CIGS then VSBYS with rain, heavy at times, and fog developing across the region. Rains arrive first KRDG-KILG before spreading NE across the rest of the Delaware Valley, Lehigh Valley and srn NJ. Rains and IFR/LIFR persist into the afternoon before improvement arrives from the SW late afternoon. A return to VFR possible before sunset for SW/W terminals. Winds will be mostly SE/E much of the first half of today, then switch to W/SW late this afternoon. LLWS that was included earlier will remain with a strong low level jet expected across the area.

Tonight . The improvement back to VFR and end of the steady precip will continue to move NE across the area this evening. VFR is expected overnight as drier air arrives. Winds will remain W or NW at 5 to 20 knots.

Outlook .

Sunday-Tuesday . Mainly VFR, though cigs could occasionally be MVFR at times due to stratus. Winds remain mainly west to northwest and may gust 15-20 knots at times through Tuesday. -Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Mainly VFR with NW winds 5-10 knots.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect on all waters, with winds and seas both steadily increasing. For the ocean waters, seas are already in excess of 5 ft and will run 6 to 9 ft through tonight. Seas should linger around 5 ft through the day Sunday, so the SCA was extended through Sunday afternoon. East-southeasterly winds could gust to 30 kt today. There is the potential for a couple of isolated gale force gusts, but not expecting them to be widespread or long lasting enough to warrant a Gale Warning. For the Delaware Bay, the SCA will expire at noon today as winds diminish. Sub-SCA conditions should continue through Sunday on the Bay, though westerly winds on Sunday could gust to 20 kt.

Outlook .

Sunday night . Winds and waves are likely to remain above advisory levels into the evening before diminishing overnight.

Monday-Wednesday . Winds and waves should remain mainly below advisory levels through this period though winds could occasionally gust to near or just over 20 knots at times.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The Coastal flood Advisory continues without any changes this morning. Still looks like low end advisory flooding event with the upcoming high tide. Conditions in Delaware Bay look the same with the tides occurring later this morning. The Chesapeake Bay will probably not experience any flooding however.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ054-055. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NJZ012>014- 020>027. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NJZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ016. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon for DEZ001. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . O'Hara Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Fitzsimmons/O'Brien Aviation . O'Brien/O'Hara Marine . O'Brien/O'Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding . O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi49 min 43°F 34°F1019.1 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi61 min ENE 17 G 20
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi55 min E 9.9 G 14 42°F 34°F1018.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi43 min 40°F 41°F1021.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi43 min 41°F 41°F1020.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi43 min 40°F 1021.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi43 min 40°F 41°F1021.2 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi43 min 43°F 1018.2 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi43 min 43°F 39°F1017.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi31 min ENE 25 G 31 43°F 1020.1 hPa (-3.1)41°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi38 minVar 59.00 miOvercast39°F34°F82%1019.7 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi38 minENE 159.00 miOvercast40°F37°F89%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSMQ

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalm3SE4E6SE7SE8CalmSE4E4CalmE3NE3E4NE43355
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmW343CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.