Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:18PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 9:00 AM EDT (13:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:09PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 735 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of rain late this morning. Rain likely early this afternoon, then rain with isolated tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 735 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong frontal system will approach today as a low pressure develops just off the mid atlantic coast. This low will track just off long island tonight and continue northeast of the waters on Thursday while strengthening. Meanwhile, high pressure will build to the west and move over the region Friday, remaining through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161025
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
625 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will continue moving slowly east through the great
lakes today pushing an occluded front into the mid- atlantic
region. A secondary low will then develop near the coast by this
afternoon. This second low will rapidly intensify through
tonight as it lifts northeastward toward new england, then
slowly moves through the canadian maritimes through Friday while
high pressure approaches from the west. This high will move
across the mid-atlantic Friday night, then offshore Saturday.

Another frontal system is possible early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A mid level low was located over lake michigan and vicinity
early this morning with a trough extending southwestward to the
middle mississippi river valley. The low is forecast to move to
the east, reaching southern ontario by evening. The trough is
expected to begin taking on a negative tilt at that time.

Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure was located on lake
huron with a cold front extending to central kentucky and
central tennessee early this morning. The surface low should
move little during the day. However, it will pull the cold front
closer to our region. A secondary low is forecast to develop in
the chesapeake bay vicinity this afternoon and it should begin
passing off the coasts of delaware and southern new jersey
toward evening.

Clouds will continue to be on the increase in our region this
morning with rain arriving from the west and southwest by
afternoon. Impressive lift is expected to develop in advance of
the mid level trough. As a result, the rain will become heavy
for a time and there may even be some thunder.

The wind should favor the southeast and south for much of the
day at speeds around 6 to 12 mph. Maximum temperatures are
expected to range from the upper 50s in the elevated terrain of
the poconos to the lower 70s in southern delaware.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The mid level low is forecast to move from southern ontario
this evening to southwestern new england toward daybreak on
Thursday. It should pull the negative tilt trough over our
region from southwest to northeast between about 9:00 pm and
1:00 am, bringing an end to the rain.

Rainfall totals are expected to range generally from 1.50 to
2.25 inches from the poconos into northern and central new
jersey. Rainfall amounts should fall between 0.75 and 1.50
inches in southeastern pennsylvania, southern new jersey,
delaware and northeastern maryland. The expected amounts should
not cause any widespread flooding problems, so a flood watch has
not been issued. However, we are anticipating localized
flooding of roadways and areas of poor drainage, which may be
enhanced as fallen leaves clog some storm drains.

The surface low is forecast to intensify rapidly tonight as it
moves from the waters off new jersey up into new england. A west
northwest wind is expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Wind gusts around 45 mph are possible in
our coastal counties, so the wind advisory remains in effect
there.

Low temperatures for tonight are expected to favor the 40s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday through Friday night...

a deep, nearly vertically stacked low will be situated over
central new england to start the period early Thursday. In its
wake a tight pressure gradient will persist over the area
resulting in continuing strong W NW winds. Heading through the
day Thursday, the low will slowly drift east across new england
while starting to fill. Strong winds due to the the tight
gradient will continue most of the day. Forecast soundings
indicate vertical mixing up close to 850 mb. Winds in the
925-850 mb layer look to generally be 35-40 knots so still think
we'll see wind gusts upwards of 40 to 50 mph... Strongest near
the coast where wind advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, we
did bump up the wind gusts slightly but still not confident
enough to expand advisory. Otherwise Thursday looks to feature
partly to mostly cloudy skies under the influence of the
system's broad upper low with some scattered showers lingering
over the southern poconos. Temperatures will be seasonably cool.

Winds diminish Thursday evening as the low continues to weaken
and move eastward into the canadian maritimes. It will still
remain on the breezy side though with gusts upwards of 15 to 25
mph. Otherwise, variable cloud cover persists with lows mostly
in the 40s.

For Friday, weakening low continues to drift eastward through
atlantic canada while high pressure builds eastward towards the
east coast. This will result in lighter winds and more sunshine
compared to Thursday but it will still be on the breezy side
with seasonably cool temperatures. The high should build right
over the region Friday night resulting in light winds, clear
skies, and good conditions for radiational cooling. As a result,
lows north of the i- 95 corridor look to make it into the 30s
so frost will be possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...

the weather pattern will remain progressive with a period of
continuing fair weather dominated by high pressure lasting most
of the weekend before the next frontal system affects the region
early next week. Temperatures look to generally be near if not
a little above average through the period.

In terms of the details, high pressure sits over the area early
Saturday before slowly sliding off the coast by late day as the
upper level ridge crests along the east coast. This will result
in splendid fall conditions with sunshine, light winds, and
seasonable temperatures as highs will be mainly in the 60s.

High pressure with fair weather looks to dominate Saturday
night through at least the first part of Sunday. However by late
day Sunday an area of warm advection precip looks to be setting
up over the SE CONUS with the northern edge of this possibly
reaching into the mid atlantic by late day and affecting
southern and western parts of the forecast area. Still some
disagreement on the details between the different forecast
models but given that most of the models keep most of the area
dry the majority of the day we continue to limit pops to slight
chance or lower. So it doesn't look like a washout at this
point.

The best chances for rain with the next system look to occur by
Monday, Monday night, possibly lasting into Tuesday as a low
pressure system moves from the great lakes into ontario. This
will will push a warm front through by late Monday followed by a
cold front by late Tuesday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This morning... Mainly MVFR ifr ceilings at krdg and kabe.

Generally MVFRVFR cloud cover at our other 6 TAF sites.

Southeast wind 4 to 8 knots.

This afternoon... Conditions lowering to ifr with rain, heavy at
times. Localized thunder is possible, but the threat is not
widespread enough to include in the tafs. Southeast wind 6 to 10
knots.

Early this evening... MVFR and ifr conditions in rain, heavy at
times. Wind becoming northwest around 10 to 15 knots.

Late this evening and overnight... Conditions improving toVFR
with rain ending. West northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts
of 30 to 40 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR possible early, improving toVFR through the
day, although periods of MVFR ceilings may last for some areas.

Chance of showers for abe rdg. Strong west to northwest wind
gusts of 25-35 knots. -high confidence in winds, moderate
confidence in ceilings.

Thursday night... Ceilings may lower to MVFR during the evening
and overnight. Northwest wind gusting 25-30 knots early then
overnight. Diminishing overnight. -high confidence in winds,
moderate confidence in ceilings.

Friday... MainlyVFR. Northwest wind gusts 15-25 knots.

-high confidence in winds, moderate confidence in ceilings.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Wind gusts
drop off during the evening. -high confidence.

Marine
A southeast wind around 15 to 20 knots is expected for today.

Gusts near 25 knots are possible during the afternoon, so a
small craft advisory remains in effect.

Low pressure is forecast to pass off the coasts of delaware and
new jersey this evening and the wind should become west
northwest in its wake. Wind speeds should increase around 30
knots with gusts near 40 knots. As a result, the gale warning
remain in effect for tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday-Thursday night... Gale warning remains in effect.

Conditions lower below gale force late Thursday night.

Friday... Small craft advisory conditions early, before lowering
through the day..

Friday night-Saturday... Conditions expected to be below
advisory levels.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
njz013-014-020>027.

De... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening
for anz430-431-450>455.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Friday for
anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi66 min E 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 63°F1013.6 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi66 min ESE 13 G 15
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi84 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 53°F 64°F1013 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi66 min 61°F 64°F1013.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi66 min SE 13 G 18 61°F 62°F1013.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi66 min SE 17 G 19 61°F 1013.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi66 min 59°F 64°F1013.9 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi66 min 54°F 61°F1012.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi66 min 57°F 66°F1012 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi50 min SE 19 G 21 62°F 65°F1013.6 hPa56°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi67 minN 09.00 miOvercast51°F48°F89%1013 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi67 minE 36.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F97%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSMQ

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3N5CalmCalm455CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3CalmSE4
1 day agoCalm34NW8W8NW7W8
G16
54CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N4N5Calm35S6CalmCalm--CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW3----

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.