Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:47 PM EDT (03:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1035 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front, south of the waters overnight, will wash out. High pressure builds back into the area and will remain centered over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front passes through the area Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run CDP, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190215
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1015 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A weak wave of low pressure will drift out to sea by Friday morning.

A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the region from
Friday through the weekend. An extended period of excessive heat is
expected. A strong and slow moving cold front will approach by
Monday. This front will likely move offshore by Tuesday. High
pressure with dry and much cooler weather should build in from the
west by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
1000 pm update... The last of the showers storms are moving off
the coast of delaware and it should then remain precip free over
the area the rest of tonight. It will also remain warm and
humid overnight. Low clouds and fog will once again develop.

Winds will be light from the N later tonight.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
A dry day is expected by-in-large, holding only a slight chc for an
afternoon shower across the southern poconos. Hot and humid
conditions expected after the morning low clouds and patchy fog burn
off. Highs will be in the mid upper 90s everywhere except at the
shore and across the higher elevations of the southern poconos.

Highs in those areas will be more like upper 80s to low 90s. An
excessive heat warning will be issued for all areas of the cwa
beginning Friday.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Overview...

all indications remain on track for a prolonged, dangerous, and
potentially deadly period of excessive heat for our area over the
weekend. An expansive ridge extending from the south central states
out into the western atlantic will yield near record warmth for
multiple days. Saturday and Sunday will both see heat indices in
excess of 100 degrees, potentially as high as 115 degrees on
Saturday. Heat related illnesses and death can occur in minutes on
days such as these in cases of over-exertion or entrapments in hot
vehicles. Because of this, extreme caution should be exercised over
the weekend with regards to the heat.

A cold front, signaling a pattern change, will slowly approach by
Monday. During the air mass transition, a period of heavy rainfall
is possible. By the middle of next week, an entirely different
pattern takes shape over the conus. After the frontal passage Monday
night or Tuesday, a robust trough digs in over the east, with strong
ridging over the mountain west. This will yield much cooler and
drier weather as we head towards the middle of next week, bringing
welcome relief from the heat.

Dailies...

Friday night... A very warm night with lows in the mid to upper 70s,
around 80 in the urban corridor. Some guidance is indicating the
potential for an MCS to track over northern or central portions of
the area as a shortwave moves through. As is typical of such events,
agreement in guidance is very poor, and several models show nothing
at all. Kept pops low for now, but will continue to monitor in the
event this idea starts to gain any traction.

Saturday-Sunday... Blistering heat. No significant changes in terms
of the temperature forecasts. Saturday's highs were nudged down just
a degree or two, with Sunday's inched up a degree or so. The result
is both days now look to have very similar high temperatures, though
Saturday still has the highest heat indices, up to 115 in the urban
corridor but with widespread values over 105. These heat index
values come down about 5 degrees Sunday but remain in very dangerous
territory, around 100 to 110. In addition, another important
consideration is the overnight minimums, especially Saturday night
when most places won't fall below the mid 70s and some urban areas
will not go below 80. This will make for very little overnight
relief. Was not going to quibble on headlines; went with a blanket
excessive heat warning for all areas through Sunday. Saturday looks
to stay dry though cannot completely rule out a pop-up storm
especially to the west. By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms may
approach from the west as a front begins moving towards the area,
though there are some indications this may hold off until later.

Given high heat and humidity, any storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall.

Sunday night-Monday night... This will be our transition period. A
strong but slow moving cold front will be approaching from the west.

The air mass ahead of it will be very moist, with pwats coming back
up to around 2.25" or higher after easing back a little on Sunday.

As the front crawls through, it looks like one or more waves of low
pressure may develop along it. There is definitely a risk for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding over this period especially if we do get
multiple rounds of convection as new waves of low pressure develop.

In addition, given the tropical air mass expected Monday, it is
possible if not likely that some new heat headlines will be needed,
though cloud cover will keep the highs about 10 degrees cooler than
Sunday. Depending on the speed of the front, cooler air may start to
filter in by Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday... Welcome relief. A much cooler, much drier air
mass settles in. A lingering shower is possible Tuesday especially
over DELMARVA and coastal nj. Otherwise, most of this period should
be dry, though an afternoon shower or storm is possible by Thursday
as an upper level disturbance approaches. Highs generally in the low
to mid 80s with comfortable dew points, so this looks like a really
nice stretch, certainly compared to the ongoing heat.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Low clouds and areas of fog will develop overnight.

Widespread MVFR expected with ifr possible. Light winds
Friday... Low clouds and any fog diminish 13z 14z thenVFR expected
with some sct daytime cu. Mostly N or NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night... GenerallyVFR. MVFR is possible due
to visibility restrictions in haze on Saturday. West-southwest wind
5 to 10 kt.

Sunday... MainlyVFR but MVFR possible in haze. Afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms possible especially near and west
of phl. Westerly wind 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday night-Monday night... Widespread showers and thunderstorms
with associated MVFR and ifr conditions. Westerly winds becoming
northwesterly at 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday... Lingering MVFR possible early, but should trendVFR
with a light north or northeast wind.

Marine
Tonight... A continuation of sub-sca conditions with
scattered tstms this evening and then some patchy fog overnight.

Winds will be mostly SW or W at 5 to 10 knots. Seas mostly
around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in tstms.

Friday... Winds will be rather light and variable early, then switch
around to SW during the afternoon and increase to around 10 knots.

Seas will be mainly 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook...

winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the
period.

Rip currents...

low risk or dangerous rip currents will continue the rest of
today.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 10 pm edt Sunday
for paz054-055-060>062-101-103-105.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for paz070-071-
102-104-106.

Nj... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 10 pm edt Sunday
for njz001-007>010-012>014-016-020>027.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for njz015-
017>019.

De... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 10 pm edt Sunday
for dez002>004.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for dez001.

Md... Excessive heat warning from noon Friday to 10 pm edt Sunday
for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Fitzsimmons o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... O'brien
aviation... Fitzsimmons o'brien o'hara
marine... O'brien o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi48 min E 4.1 G 6
MHRN6 27 mi48 min ENE 7 G 8
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi72 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 81°F1011.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi54 min 73°F 76°F1013 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi48 min NE 5.1 G 8 71°F 73°F1012.9 hPa (+1.1)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi48 min NE 11 G 12 72°F 1012.8 hPa (+1.2)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi48 min 72°F 73°F1013.1 hPa (+1.4)
BDSP1 40 mi48 min 78°F 82°F1012.3 hPa (+1.1)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi54 min 80°F 81°F1011.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi28 min NE 12 G 14 72°F 78°F1012.2 hPa71°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi55 minE 49.00 miOvercast74°F71°F91%1012.2 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi55 minE 510.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NE3CalmCalmCalm3Calm4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalm3E4
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmS7S736SW73CalmN8
G19
3CalmS3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm34566--533SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.