Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 5:57PM Sunday March 7, 2021 4:43 PM EST (21:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:45AMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 317 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Today..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 317 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure system north of the area today shifts overhead tomorrow. The system then drops south of long island and offshore through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 072042 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 342 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Another trough will cross the region on Sunday into Monday before upper level low pressure in the Canadian maritimes finally moves off into the North Atlantic. High pressure and dry weather will then dominate through most of next week, with a warming trend. A cold front will approach and cross through the region Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Surface high pressure continues to build across the region today as the flow has generally become light northwesterly. A mid level shortwave is tracking through eastern PA and northern New Jersey today and should represent the final wave from the upper level low over Newfoundland. Behind the shortwave the mid level flow is expected to become slightly more zonal overnight. With chilly 925/850 temps in place tonight and no cloud cover we'll see highly efficient radiational cooling. The PBL should easily decouple tonight setting the stage for surface temperatures to drop quickly after we lose daytime incoming solar radiation. Expect a fairly sharp drop in temps after sunset with temps bottoming out in the mid to low teens across the area.

By mid afternoon Monday, the flow should start to shift from northwest to westerly and strong warm air advection aloft will start to move over the region. With the flow remaining northwest and limited time for the warm air advection to impact the region I've opted to keep temps slightly cooler from roughly from Allentown/Trenton/Toms River north with highs in the 30s at elevation and getting to near 40 in the lower elevation areas. In the urban corridor and locations south and east, expect modest flow to eventually warm the area to the mid 40s under clear skies.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The well-advertised and long awaited warm-up finally arrives during the midweek period. The forecast philosophy for this period is largely unchanged, as troughing departs offshore and strong ridging builds into the East. A large center of surface high pressure will gradually shift from over the Southeast out into the western Atlantic This ridging and high pressure dominated pattern will send temperatures rising and leave our region far removed from any chance of precipitation.

Tuesday will begin seasonably chilly, but sunshine and dry air will promote efficient heating. The air mass won't yet be quite warm enough to support the level of warmth expected later in the week. But it will still be a pleasant day and a big departure from the recent lengthy stretch of colder than normal days. Highs will rise into the upper 50s and low 60s, a good 10 degrees above average with light westerly winds. Lows Tuesday night won't be cold as previous nights, but we will still radiate well and fall back into the 30s.

On Wednesday, we again see sunny skies and dry air, and the air mass will have warmed a little further. Because of that, many areas will see highs in the 60s on Wednesday, with some mid 60s expected. One difference for Wednesday, and a bit of a change from previous cycles, is that the wind direction looks more due southerly or even a bit east of south for most of the day, as opposed to west of south. This will yield temperatures several degrees cooler near the coast, especially eastern Monmouth and Ocean counties.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overview .

Unseasonably warm weather continues into the end of the work week as strong ridging remains in place over the East. Warm conditions will remain in place as long as our region stays south of a sharp frontal zone dividing the warmer air over us from much colder air to the north. Trends last night and today have been to keep that frontal zone north of us for longer and to amplify the Eastern ridge a little more. This means conditions could become even a little warmer than had already been expected late this week, with 70 degree readings becoming a real possibility for Thursday and Friday in some areas. By next weekend, it still looks like the front will drift far enough south to move through the region, bringing much cooler temperatures.

As with the temperatures, precipitation chances will be closely tied to the approach of the front. No measurable precipitation is expected through Thursday. Showery weather associated with the front could arrive across the northwestern zones as early as Thursday night, but more likely will hold off until later Friday or Friday night. But even once the front arrives, precipitation should be on the light side.

Dailies .

Thursday-Friday . The warm spell continues, and becomes even more pronounced heading towards the end of the week. Ridging over the East reaches its maximum strength, and temperatures aloft continue to warm. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday in many ways, and with the air mass a little warmer we will likely break into the upper 60s in many areas, and may touch 70 in a few spots. The ocean influence should be lesser on Thursday with a southwest flow, so the coastal cooling effect will not be as pronounced. One note on Thursday's forecast, is that winds are trending a bit higher, with southwesterly gusts of 20 to 25 mph looking possible, and minimum RH values are forecast to be near 40%. So combined with the warm temperatures and very lengthy dry spell, this will at least be pushing us close to fire weather thresholds, and we will likely be in coordination with our partners.

For Friday, there continue to be some timing differences with the approaching cold front. The EC has been more progressive than the GFS in bringing the front through, but the overall trend the past couple of cycles has been a bit slower on its passage, keeping us in the warmer air mass. If the front stays far enough north, Friday could be the warmest day of the week especially in southern areas, and have forecast highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Uncertainty is still a little higher on Friday, as numbers could be cooler if the front starts to move in sooner, or could even be a little warmer with more widespread low 70s if it stays safely north. In addition, continuing to mention a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon, for most of the region given the possibility that the front could be close enough for this to occur.

Saturday-Sunday . By the weekend, it is likely that the cold front dropping down from the north-northwest will have moved through, though some guidance suggests it may stall over or just south of the region. Either way, temperatures on Saturday appear likely to fall back towards normal levels, and may drop below normal by Sunday. With the possibility of the front still being nearby, maintained generic slgt chc to low end chc PoPs for the weekend, with no use at this stage trying to time the best chances. Any precipitation over the weekend continues to look light.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Monday . VFR. Winds gradually shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Monday night . VFR. Southwest wind around 5 kt. High confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt gradually shifting to west-northwest through the day, then light and variable overnight. High confidence.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . VFR. Light winds become southeasterly Wednesday morning, then gradually shift to southerly and south- southwesterly through the day and night with speeds of 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Thursday-Friday . VFR. Southwest wind 10 to 15 kt. High confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions expected on the coastal waters and across the bay as northwest flow continues with gusts generally at 15 knots or less. Seas from 1 to 3 feet. Seas could be somewhat choppy with short periods of 3 to 4 seconds the through Monday.

Outlook .

Monday night-Wednesday night . No marine headlines are anticipated. Several wind shifts through the period with gusts 20 kt or less. Seas 1 to 3 ft. Fair weather.

Thursday-Thursday night . SCA criteria may be approached as southwest winds gust close to 25 kt and seas build to 4 to 5 ft.

FIRE WEATHER. A prolonged dry period will remain in place over the region, so there will be continued monitoring for fire weather potential this week. Winds appear low enough to preclude any fire weather concerns through at least Wednesday. Monday should have fairly dry conditions with RH levels dropping to below 40%. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similarly dry and also much warmer than normal with highs in the 60s. By Thursday, a combination of warm temperatures, breezier conditions, and RH levels near 40% may lead to an increase in fire weather concerns.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Deal Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Deal/O'Brien Marine . Deal/O'Brien Fire Weather . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi56 min NW 9.9 G 13 40°F 38°F1026.6 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi56 min WNW 8 G 9.9
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi68 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 40°F 38°F1025.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi56 min 40°F 1025.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi56 min W 9.9 G 12 39°F 1026.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi56 min NW 13 G 17 39°F 1025.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi56 min 40°F 38°F1025.8 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi56 min 42°F 42°F1026.1 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi56 min 43°F 40°F1026 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi44 min W 9.7 G 12 42°F1025.1 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi51 minWNW 9 miFair42°F13°F30%1025.6 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi51 minVar 610.00 miFair41°F13°F32%1025.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSMQ

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:51 AM EST     5.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:56 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:26 PM EST     4.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:07 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.54.85.75.95.54.53.42.41.40.60.40.81.93.14.14.74.74.13.22.41.60.90.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:09 AM EST     5.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:56 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:44 PM EST     4.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:19 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.14.45.45.95.64.83.72.61.60.80.40.61.62.83.84.64.74.33.42.61.810.60.7

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