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LEZ146 Expires:202312082115;;113483 Fzus51 Kcle 081416 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 916 am est Fri dec 8 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>146-082115- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh- 916 am est Fri dec 8 2023
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 41 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 090333 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1033 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will bring above average temperatures to the Upper Ohio River Valley through Saturday. Probability of rain increases late Saturday evening and rain is expected through all of Sunday. Rain will change over to snow late Sunday night, accumulations Monday morning along the ridges will range between 1 to 4 inches of snow.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Changes at 1030 PM mainly revolved around temps and dewpoints.
Ongoing mixing of a dry surface layer has led to warmer and drier conditions than the previous forecast, and thus made some adjustments using a hi-res model blend and a bit of upward manual adjustment. This led to adding a degree or two to overnight lows as well. Other aspects of the forecast are on track.

Previous discussion...
Overnight temperature temperatures will continue to trend warm (10 to 15 degrees above average). Temperatures are expected to range in the low to mid-40s in the lower elevations, upper-30s in the higher terrain. Clouds will likely overspread the region from west to east as a new disturbance advances closer to the Ohio River Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
By Saturday morning, a mature low pressure system situated over the Dakotas will eject into the Great Lakes region within an elongated trough that will dig deep into the Mississippi River Valley. As a result, a strong low-level jet will develop across portions of the Ohio River Valley and warm, moist conditions will overspread eastern Ohio and western PA. Sfc dew points will climb from the mid-30s after dawn to low-50s by late evening.
Strong ascension with an incoming cold front will likely result in line of convection Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Heavy rainfall rates embedded within this line could create a narrow swath between 11pm Saturday to 6am Sunday due to upper- lvl winds running parallel along the front. Thunderstorms chances increase between 7pm Saturday to 1am Sunday due to elevated instability. Confidence is low for severe chances, lightning and heavy downpours will be the main threat.

Rain will continue late Sunday morning into Sunday night.
Probability of 1 inch is high for areas south and east of Pittsburgh with the latest guidance; probabilities of this specific amount are above 60%. When comparing the 01Z run of the NBM and the 13Z run, models have been trending down on rainfall amounts for areas north and northwest of Pittsburgh with the potential of mid-lvl dry air crossing the region.

Rain will likely change over to a wintry mix followed by snow late Sunday into early Monday morning with incoming cold air from the northwest. Probability of 1 inch of accumulation is high within the ridges, ranging between 70% to 95%. The snow will likely be wet and heavy and could create impacts with shoveling late Sunday night into early Sunday morning for areas that experience more than half inch. The worst case scenario for Preston/Tucker County and the Laurel Highlands is 6 to 7 inches of snow. However, that scenario is if colder air advances quicker than model guidance. Elsewhere, less than a half inch is expected given warm surface temperatures and the quick exit of the trough to the Northeast.

Snow shower chances early Monday morning through Monday afternoon will likely be confided to the ridges and downstream of Lake Erie given upsloping and lake enhancement. An additional half inch to inch could accumulate near I-80 and elevations above 2kft.

Monday high temperatures will trend slightly below average by 5 degrees given cloud coverage and lingering cold air aloft.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Monday night temperatures will trend cooler than average as clouds clear and radiational cooling occurs. With elevated wind gusts at the surface, 20 to 25mph in the low elevations to 25mph to 35mph in the higher terrain, wind chill values will fall into the teens. Single digit wind chill values are likely in the higher terrain of Preston and Tucker County.

Near normal temperatures and drier weather is expected Tuesday into Friday as high pressure over the Midwest shifts east.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mid/high clouds will overspread the area tonight in advance of the next system, with ceilings generally ranging from 5-7kft AGL by morning. Ceilings will continue to slowly lower from the west Saturday, with MVFR expected by 16z. Restrictions reach PIT after around 00Z.

Models indicate a few light showers may be possible west of PIT between 12-18Z, but probabilities are too low at this time to warrant inclusion. Rain becomes more likely near 00z for ZZV, spreading east across the area Saturday evening.

OUTLOOK
Restrictions with rain are expected late Saturday through Sunday, followed by a transition to snow and continued restrictions Sunday night into Monday. A return to VFR is expected Monday night and should persist through much of next with with building high pressure.

HYDROLOGY
Widespread rain of 0.5 to 1.25 inches is expected for most of the Upper Ohio River Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Rapid rises are expected Sunday night due to runoff, especially along the Monongahela Basin. With rivers running below average across the region, the probability of river forecast points approaching flood stage is low. Local tributaries may be impacted in areas with localized heavy amounts.

CLIMATE
Daily record precipitation has the potential to be tied and/or broken on Sunday (December 10th).

CLI Site /24hr Rainfall Record (Year)/24hr Rainfall Forecast

New Philadelphia, OH / 0.62" (2012) / 0.70"

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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