Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Leesville, OH

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional snow tonight into early Sunday

2) Prolonged cold snap

3) Gusty to strong wind possible Monday. Wind Advisory possible for the higher terrain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Additional snow tonight into early Sunday

A cold front moving through overnight will bring light snow, which is expected to start after midnight and last until 5am Sunday. Expect a trace to 1 inch of snow, with the higher amounts (up to 1 inch) most likely in the higher terrain of West Virginia. Since temperatures will drop into the low-20s, a light coating of snow could create slick conditions on untreated roadways early Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Prolonged cold snap

Cold conditions peak late Monday into Tuesday morning after a reinforcing shot of cold air behind another frontal passage/upper wave; low temperature Tuesday has an 80-100% probability of being below 10 degrees, with portions of northwest PA and the higher terrain favored to see below-zero air temperature. Combined with lingering breezy conditions, below-zero wind chills are expected for most of Tuesday morning, bottoming out in the -5 to -20F range across the region. There is high confidence in need for a Cold Weather Advisory for the area, and possibility for Extreme Cold Warning in portions of the higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Strong Wind Gusts Monday

Strengthening pressure gradient as low pressure passes to our north amid deeper daytime mixing will product wind gusts between 35-45 mph on Monday. Gusts could reach (or exceed in eastern Tucker County) Wind Advisory criteria. Uncertainty remains in the depth of the crossing trough, and strength of the surface low/pressure gradient.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...

1) VFR returning for part of tonight in the wake of snow squalls

2) Area of snow and associated restrictions affecting northern WV and PA ridges overnight

3) Dry Sunday with gradually scattering clouds

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In the wake of afternoon snow showers and squalls, VFR has returned to the area. Another mid-level trough passage is reinforcing mid-level clouds with 5-7 kft ceilings overspreading from the west. Along with this will be a shield of light snow riding up mainly northern West Virginia and into the Pennsylvania ridges. The westward extent, and associated restrictions, is still a bit uncertain with some disagreement in CAMs. Highest confidence in restrictions with snow is for MGW and LBE where prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely to return with IFR visibility favored, so have included such prevailing conditions after 06z and through the pre-dawn hours. Elsewhere farther west, have kept prevailing VFR and opted for a PROB30/TEMPO with lesser restrictions around the same timeframe where snow is lower confidence but still possible. Wind will remain light overnight out of the west around 5 knots.

Snow will exit after dawn tomorrow and give way to a dry day with gradually scattering clouds as surface high pressure noses in. Moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion looks to keep a SCT to BKN deck in place through at least the first half of the day with VFR a good bet (60-70%) save LBE/DUJ where lingering MVFR ceilings are possible into the afternoon hours.

Outlook...
Another quick moving system may return restrictions on Monday Monday with high pressure then building in on Tuesday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.