Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ingram, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain returns today - Continued above average temperatures

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Low pressure was centered across the Upper Midwest, with a warm front extending from the low through Ohio. A shortwave trough was analyzed across MO/AR. The shortwave and surface warm front will track northeastward today, spreading rain across the region. Some enhancement to the rain is expected as a 40kt jet at 850 mb crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region.

The area of rain is expected to taper off from W-E as the axis of the shortwave trough completes its passage, though some patchy light rain or drizzle will remain possible with low level moisture in place. Rainfall amounts are expected to be between 0.5 and 0.8 inches. NBM probabilities are generally high for at least a half inch (70-90 %.)

High temperatures will again be around 10 degrees above average today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain possible tonight - Another round of widespread rain Tuesday and Tuesday night with a cold front - Much colder with rain changing to snow Wednesday -------------------------------------------------------------------

Upper level forcing for ascent exits the region this evening, though lingering low level moisture could result in patchy light rain or drizzle overnight.

A digging shortwave trough is progged to advance eastward from the Upper Midwest/Plains region on Tuesday, as a developing surface low tracks from the TN Valley region to Western PA.
Another area of widespread rain is expected with increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the shortwave, and as the low crosses the region. The low will continue northeastward Tuesday night, pulling a cold front across the region.

The front is expected to stall across central PA Tuesday night, as another wave of low pressure develops and tracks north along it. Rain will continue overnight as this second low tracks along the front. The low will continue northeastward on Wednesday, as the front accelerates eastward. The digging trough is progged to then cross the region during the afternoon and evening hours.

Cold advection will result in rain mixing with and eventually changing to snow from west to east through the day. Model soundings and critical thicknesses indicate this changeover should occur across OH Wednesday morning, and PA/WV Wednesday afternoon. Snow accumulation should be less than an inch for most areas, though the higher terrain areas could see an inch or two by the end of the day.

Snow should begin to taper off from west to east Wednesday night as the trough axis shifts eastward, though a closed upper low is progged to develop across the Upper Midwest. Broad troughing to the south of the low, and a W-WSW boundary layer flow, could result in additional snow showers overnight especially north of PIT and in the ridges.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Much colder Thursday - Seasonable temperatures and rain chances return over the weekend.
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Model ensembles indicate the upper low will remain across Ontario on Thursday, with additional terrain and lake enhanced snow showers possible north of PIT and in the ridges.
Probability of 4 inches of snow or greater remain low (less than 50%) for most of the higher terrain areas, though does approach 50 percent for the highest elevations of Tucker county.
Elsewhere these probabilities are less than 10 percent.

Ensembles indicate the low will fill and move eastward Friday, as surface high pressure builds across the region. Another shortwave trough is expected to move east from the central CONUS on Saturday, crossing our region on Sunday. Rain chances are expected to return with the approach and passage of the trough over the weekend. Some mixed precip is possible north of PIT Saturday night, though confidence in this occurrence is low.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Conditions will deteriorate this morning as rain overspreads the region. CIGs are expected to quickly drop to MVFR near the onset of rain and then down to IFR as the column saturates.
Steadier rain is expected to taper near 18z, giving way to isolated showers in the warm sector with cigs either holding steady or improving slightly.

Outlook...
Low level moisture should maintain restrictions and rain chances Tuesday/Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Restrictions and rain/snow are expected Wednesday under subsequent upper troughing and cold advection.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.