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FXUS61 KPBZ 110929 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 429 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Scattered snow showers are expected this morning while lingering over the higher elevations into the afternoon. Dry conditions and seasonable temperature is then expected the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The Winter Storm Warming will continue in coordination with surrounding offices for eastern Tucker county, same with the Winter Weather Advisory for eastern Preston and western Tucker counties. Have not been able to get many reports overnight (as expected) but did have a 3-4" report across higher elevations of eastern Tucker from the DOT...so will let current headlines ride and let the day shift make any adjustments given the potential for additional snow accumulations.

Elsewhere, not much more than a dusting is expected with the only concern being possible brief reductions to visibility with any lake enhanced snow bands under northwest flow. The boundary layer is rather shallow and largely outside of the DGZ, so these impacts should be limited. Limited snow growth in the boundary layer along with sfc temperatures >32F should keep anymore accumulations outside of the ridges to tenths of an inch if any.

Cold advection and persistent cloud coverage will limit diurnal temperature change to only a couple degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Dry conditions and a gradually clearing sky is expected overnight as ridging builds in from the west. Another front will drop south across the region Tuesday evening, however, with minimal moisture to work with the only real impact will be continued below normal temperatures on Wednesday in it's wake.
Surface high pressure then maintains dry conditions with limited cloud coverage through Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Long term models suggest a coastal low developing in the Gulf of Mexico between Dec. 17th to Dec 19th. However, the ECMWF and GEFS differ on potential impacts along the East Coast. GEFS has a Nor'eastern developing over the Northeast/New England Monday.
However, ECMWF keeps the low pressure system in the Southeast for numerous days as a blocking pattern develops. Therefore, confidence is low on precip chances and impacts over the weekend and into early next week until models shake out the large scale synoptic pattern.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR to low VFR conditions are likely through the day amid cold advection in northwest flow, with steepening post-frontal boundary layer mixing fostering 20 to 25kt W to NW gusts.
Increasing subsidence and dry advection will reduce snow shower activity as well, lingering longest in northwest PA (FKL/DUJ)
thanks to lake enhancements. The period between 16z-21z is most likely to see on and off heavier snow shower activity impact FKL/DUJ, causing rapid but brief vsby restrictions, though probability of terminal impact is trending downward.

High pressure and rising heights aloft will end precipitation chances while providing nearly areawide VFR conditions (save for lingering MVFR stratocu near DUJ) overnight into Tuesday.

OUTLOOK
There is high confidence in a prolonged period of dry weather fostering mostly dry conditions Tuesday through the rest of the week.

Any crossing system will offer temporary enhancements to surface wind speeds/gusts and increased cloudiness, with probability of MVFR restrictions mainly relegated to northwest PA.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ512-513.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ514.

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