Ingram, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ingram, PA

April 12, 2024 4:33 PM EDT (20:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM
Moonrise 8:01 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ingram, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 121928 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 328 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Light rain showers will continue into this evening as low pressure exits to the east. Gusty winds are expected through Saturday morning and a Wind Advisory is in effect. Much cooler air will settle in today and remain through Saturday.
Thunderstorm chances return again on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Colder with showers continuing today.
- Wind Advisory in effect for the entire area. Gusts >40 mph may bring trees and power lines down given the highly saturated ground.
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The surface low that brought all the rain to the area yesterday continues to slowly move northward over southern Canada, north of Lake Erie. Convergence along a trough axis coupled with developing meager and shallow instability is driving some light rain showers in westerly flow which will continue into this evening until most likely hi res ensemble timing ends precipitation chances after 8PM for eastern Ohio, shortly after midnight for Pittsburgh, and lingering into the overnight hours for the ridges and areas north of I-80. Thus, the highest rainfall amounts of up to 0.75" will be north and east of Pittsburgh coincident with the greatest probabilities for >0.5" around 70-80%. Most likely amounts elsewhere will be around 0.3-0.5". A few rumbles of thunder are possible this afternoon as well as temperatures aloft continue to tumble and lapse rates steepen some creating marginal instability.

The other concern for today will be the strong winds. A very tight surface pressure gradient, working with cold air advection and strong surface pressure rises, will all work to result in gusts up to 40 mph throughout the day. Ensemble probabilities for gusts exceeding 40 mph peak at 70-90% this afternoon and evening areawide. The strongest gusts are expected over Eastern Tucker County, however, even though gusts will be a little less elsewhere, there could still be issues with falling trees and power lines as the ground is so saturated from the heavy rain in the past 24 hours. For this reason, an areawide impact-based Wind Advisory is in effect through 7AM Saturday to cover this threat. The original Advisory for Eastern Tucker County still remains in effect until 6PM Saturday.

Colder air will overspread the region throughout the day, with the coldest reaching the area this afternoon with the trough axis. Temperatures today will sink back to below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry Saturday with decreasing clouds.
- Thunderstorm chances return Sunday with potential for some strong to severe.
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The upper trough pushes off to the east Saturday afternoon and strong 11-13 dam 12 hour height rises ensue into the day on Sunday.
Surface ridging noses in from the south introducing drier air and cutting off the depth of the moisture. Some lingering upslope rain mixed with snow showers may continue into the early morning hours on Saturday in the ridges, but otherwise dry weather returns and low clouds will erode from southwest to northeast through the day. Highs will be dependent on how quick the cloud cover clears, and ensemble means bring clearing to eastern OH/WV panhandle by mid-morning while most of western PA looks to stay partly to mostly cloudy through the afternoon. Eastern OH should see the low 60s while most of western PA will sit in the 50s, though the bust potential comes into play with cloud cover being quicker/slower to clear.

Come Sunday, a warm front is progged to pass through in the morning placing our area in the warm sector of low pressure just to our north. Surface flow backs more southerly and warm, moist advection pulls temperatures into the 70s with greatest confidence south and west of Pittsburgh. Dew points will rise into the mid to upper 50s allowing for sufficient destabilization by afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. NBM probabilities for CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg rise up to 60-80%, highest across eastern Ohio. A belt of 40-50 knot westerly low level flow veering more with height atop southwest flow at the surface looks to support shear values for thunderstorm organization with the cold front, some potentially strong to severe. Most of the shear and curvature noted in hodographs occurs within the lowest 1-3 km and deep layer shear is weaker. Some question will come into play with warm advection occurring aloft that may mute low level lapse rates, though an elevated mixed layer should support at least some extent of a hail threat. SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5). Mean precipitable water values will rise up to near 1" and while the front should be progressive, cloud layer wind looks to take on a more parallel component to the front, so with the already very saturated ground, some localized flooding concerns aren't out of the question.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures climbing well above average.
- Dry Monday, rain chances return Tuesday and linger into mid-week.
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With the only minimal uncertainty being driven by the progression of the upper trough into Monday, confidence is high that the front will clear the area by the morning hours and, aside from some low probability shower chances south of I-70, the day should be dry.
Ensembles aren't very bullish on intrusion of cooler air in the wake of the front as an 850 mb ridge quickly builds in its wake and temperatures remain above normal.

Above normal temperatures will be the theme into next week as brief upper ridging builds and southerly return flow promotes warm advection kicking temperatures well above average with ensemble probability for >70F in excess of 70% through Thursday. More uncertainty comes into play with precipitation chances as an upper low ejects across the Midwest late Monday. Current ensemble consensus tracks a surface low through the Great Lakes and returns rain to our region by Tuesday, but the uncertain and unsettled progression of the upper level pattern looks to hold precipitation chances around through the end of the week.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
General low MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the day with shower coverage increasing this afternoon as an upper low transitions over the area.

A tight pressure gradient will yield strong westerly winds (exceeding 30-35 kt at times), that will continue through the TAF period.

Outlook
Gusty conditions continue into Sat as low pressure swings through the region. VFR should return to the region by Saturday afternoon.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069.
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>513.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ514.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPIT PITTSBURGH INTL,PA 9 sm13 minW 13G253 smOvercast Lt Rain 50°F45°F82%29.48
KAFJ WASHINGTON COUNTY,PA 24 sm37 minno data10 smOvercast Rain 48°F46°F93%29.54
KBTP PITTSBURGH/BUTLER RGNL,PA 24 sm37 minWSW 17G2310 smOvercast Lt Rain 48°F46°F93%29.45
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Wind History from PIT
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