Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:20 AM   Moonset 1:08 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1015 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ300 1015 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will pass to the northeast tonight as high pressure remains stationary just offshore. The high will weaken and move farther out into the atlantic late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a broad area of low pressure begins to approach from the mid mississippi and ohio valleys. The low will consolidate into one area of low pressure along the mid atlantic coast by Wednesday night, then slowly pass to the south on Thursday, followed by weak high pressure building into the area Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system and wave of low pressure should impact the area over the weekend, followed by high pressure early next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 140151 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 951 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slowly moves offshore tonight into Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday and continues through the middle of the week with a slow moving low pressure system.
After brief ridging towards the end of the week, more unsettled weather returns for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak shortwave energy will pass through the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey this evening. High pressure centered off the Delmarva Peninsula and Mid-Atlantic coast will slowly build out to sea tonight through Tuesday. A warm front will develop out ahead of an area of low pressure organizing and developing over the Midwest, and that warm front will lift into the region late in the day Tuesday.

Skies will be partly cloudy for at least the first half of the night. Clouds will then increase and thicken after midnight and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday as a warm front develops out ahead of the low over the Midwest and lifts towards the East Coast. Cannot rule out some patchy fog in the pre-dawn hours as well.

Low pressure will lift into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and the warm front lifts into the region on Tuesday. This system will also tap into moisture over the Gulf Coast states, and clouds and that moisture will spread into the region throughout the day. Although scattered showers are possible throughout the day, the bulk of the activity will hold off until closer to sunset, and mainly for the far western zones.

Lows tonight will drop into the 50s, and then highs on Tuesday will be warmer than today, topping off in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Widespread showers return to the region Tuesday night as height falls and PVA will amplify lift across the forecast area.
Moisture coming from the Appalachians will move through the region and provide a steady dose of showers late Tuesday evening through Wednesday. QPF forecast remains largely unchanged with most locations forecast to see around 0.75 inches of rain from Tuesday evening through Wednesday (higher totals of 1-1.25 inches possible closer to the coast) with the bulk coming in the early Wednesday-Wednesday morning time frame.
CAPE still looks relatively weak so while a few rumbles of thunder may occur, its a low (<15%) chance.

As the low pressure system starts moving out of the region later on Wednesday, lingering showers should continue into the afternoon before drier air starts moving into the area. However the low doesn't move out quickly so we'll have the potential to see showers well into the evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Heading towards the end of the week, Thursday should be a mostly quiet day as an upper level ridge starts to build into the region. Again there are still strong timing differences between the EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles with respect to the speed of the systems. The GFS and its ensembles are more progressive and leads to a dry day on Thursday while the EC and its ensembles are slight slower which would allow for isolated showers to develop Thursday afternoon.

The brief break in rainfall ends heading into the weekend as the next system starts to move into over the weekend. Guidance still shows too much uncertainty to feel confident in details at this point but the general consensus is that a northern stream upper level trough will strengthen and bring showers to the region sometime over the weekend with the most likely timing Friday night into Saturday. If the pattern were to be more progressive, high pressure may return on Monday but that remains highly uncertain.

Temps in the extended from Thursday onwards should be fairly seasonable in the mid to upper 70s for highs and lows in the upper 50s to near 60 each night.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR. Some patchy fog possible from 09Z to 12Z, but confidence low on it occurring at any given terminal. While dewpoint depression and winds will be low, increasing cloud coverage will prevent much runaway radiational cooling to allow for widespread fog development. At the moment, anything that forms still looks patchy and shallow, thus will not include fog in the 00Z TAF. SW winds around 10 kt this evening, diminishing to around 5 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR most of the day, then MVFR CIGs after 21Z with the best chance west of the Delaware River. Scattered SHRA may result in brief sub- VFR VSBYs as well. S winds 5 to 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with occasional showers.

Thursday/Friday...No significant weather expected.

Friday night/Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances for showers increasing.

MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for tonight and Tuesday. For northern New Jersey ocean waters (ANZ450-451), S winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts as high as 25 kt through this evening, though 25 kt gusts will not be widespread enough nor frequent enough to warrant a SCA at this time. Otherwise, S winds will will range from 10 to 15 kt. Winds increase for the northern New Jersey ocean waters again Tuesday afternoon, but winds look to remain just below SCA criteria. Seas will average 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Conditions expected to be largely sub-SCA but winds may approach 25 knots and seas 5 feet, particularly later on Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...SCA conditions anticipated (40-50%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Significant wave heights approach 7 feet early Thursday. Showers Wed night then mostly fair Thursday.

Friday/Saturday...Lingering 5 foot seas possible Friday but otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cheesequake Creek
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Mon -- 12:32 AM EDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:20 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Mon -- 12:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:12 PM EDT     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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