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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 919 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Today..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening, then slight chance of light rain or drizzle after midnight.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain or drizzle.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain or drizzle after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 919 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure will be in control through tonight. A weak wave of low pressure then passes nearby Friday afternoon into evening, with a weak trough of low pressure remaining nearby on Saturday. A frontal boundary then lingers nearby to the south Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure developing along the front will pass to the south on Sunday and then move farther out to sea on Monday.

FXUS61 KOKX 301434 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 934 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control through tonight. A weak wave of low pressure then passes nearby Friday afternoon into evening, with a weak trough of low pressure remaining nearby on Saturday. A frontal boundary then lingers nearby to the south Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure developing along the front will pass to the south on Sunday and then move farther out to sea on Monday. High pressure will build from the west for Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast is mainly on track. Cloud cover was adjusted downward as observations and satellite imagery are both indicating nearly clear skies. Otherwise, did the usual adjustments to temperatures, dew points, and winds for current conditions.

The region will be under the influence of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic today and tonight. Dry weather, with SW winds will help raise high temperatures above yesterday's levels. Radiational cooling could be offset for a few hours tonight with the potential of cirrus passing through.
Went with an even blend of MAV/MET/NBM for tonight's lows for spots that typically experience stronger radiational cooling.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
A jet streak with enhanced lift will be shifting through the Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes during the day Friday and passing to our north Friday evening. Its position relative to the forecast area has trended less favorably for upper divergence. Still, some models suggest a very weak low center passing through or nearby us, so associated isentropic lift and a mid-level shortwave will combine with the available moisture for the likelihood of rain Friday afternoon and evening. Mid- level drying occurs occurs overnight and lasts into Saturday. At the same time, weak theta-e ridging and isentropic lift bring a slight chance of light rain or drizzle late Friday night through Saturday. With the lack of ice nucleation, will need to monitor surface temperature trends for freezing drizzle potential well NW of the city as progged temperatures are in the mid 30s for an extended period. Left out the mention of fog late Friday night into Saturday morning as approx 20kt winds at the base of a low level inversion should provide enough turbulent mixing with the lingering low level moisture to favor low stratus over fog.

NBM looked good for temperatures Friday through Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An unsettled period is likely from Sat night into Monday as western Atlantic ridging gives way to a broad longwave troughing with embedded shortwaves. There will be a chance for some light rain or drizzle initially from Sat night into Sunday with a stationary front lingering to the south and a NE flow becoming established. Best chances for rain look to be from late day Sunday into Monday morning as low pressure developing over the Mid Atlantic region approaches and then passes to the south.
Temps during this period will be above normal.

CAA on the back side of the low will then bring dry wx on a gusty NW flow, but with cyclonic low level flow promoting partly to mostly cloudy skies especially Tue afternoon/night.
Temps will be cooling to near normal on Tue, and a little below normal on Wed.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR as high pressure remains to the south. Winds are below 10 kt in the 15Z TAFs but should increase to 10-12 kt by 17-18Z becoming more SW. Winds may not diminish very much tonight closer to the coast and in the metro area (KLGA/KJFK/KBDR/KGON).

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Friday: Rain in the afternoon and at night with MVFR or lower cond.

Saturday: Chance of light rain or drizzle, with MVFR or lower cond possible.

Sunday: Rain with MVFR or lower cond likely. N winds G15-20kt NYC metro/coast late at night.

Monday: Chance of rain. MVFR or lower cond likely especially AM.
NW winds G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and gusts observations on the ocean waters were a few knots lower than forecast and adjustments were made. Seas continue to be near 4 feet.

Winds and seas start increasing this afternoon into tonight with the pressure gradient tightening a little. SCA remains in effect for the ocean starting at 3 PM this afternoon, then ending at 6 AM Fri W Fire Island Inlet and until 12 PM east.

SCA cond are also likely on all waters Sunday night into Mon night with the approach and passage of intensifying offshore low pressure. A few NW gale force gusts may be possible on the ocean waters Mon night.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.

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Perth Amboy
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Thu -- 03:38 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM EST     5.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     4.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Perth Amboy, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:14 AM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:50 PM EST     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:45 PM EST     1.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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