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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1000 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1000 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure moves across the area tonight and then moves offshore Friday, remaining in control through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure gradually builds in behind the system and remains in control through the middle of next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 080457 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1157 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the west through morning, then offshore in the afternoon, but remains in control through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Temperatures and dewpoints were adjusted since they were running cooler than forecast due to lower than expected cloud cover.
Clouds are pushing in from the west so cooling will become more limited over the next few hours. THe rest of the forecast remains on track.

Skies have cleared over a good portion of the area but do remain across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ. High pressure will continue to build in from the west overnight, but due to a strengthening subsidence inversion, some of these clouds could linger for much of the night.
Although winds will be light, there will be some clouds around so conditions will vary on the amount of cooling. Lows are currently forecast to be in the mid and upper 20s for most locations, but the lower 30s for the NYC metro. This is close to normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Heights continue to rise aloft through Saturday, with the ridge axis passing overhead Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure slowly shifts east, moving offshore Friday but remaining in control through Saturday. This period will feature dry conditions with a warming trend.

Highs on Friday will be back to normal, mid 40s. The flow at the surface becomes southerly on Friday afternoon as high pressure shifts east and that will allow lows Friday night to be a few degrees warmer in a moist onshore flow. By early Saturday, the flow through of much of the column will be W/SW as the upper level ridge axis shifts east. This will help temperatures reach the upper 40s to mid 50s on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A 500mb trough digs in to our west on Sunday, then lifts during the day Monday with its axis shifting through the forecast area Monday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front approaches us on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. While it's passing through, an area of low pressure develops along the front and passes to our north.

Rain chances ramp up through the day with the entire forecast area likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times mainly during Sunday night as a strong low level jet develops over us and combines with deep synoptic lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass. Some models continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Rain chances continue into Monday even behind the front as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we'll be within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Should precipitation actually occur Monday morning over the higher elevations well NW of the city, some snowflakes may mix in with showers. Total rain amounts now appear a little higher. See the hydrology section below for more details.

Regarding winds for this event, 925mb winds continue to be progged to reach 60-80kt over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday night. Even if a relatively stronger low level inversion were to be in place during the time that the llj moves through, about half of that speed could potentially reach the surface. NBM probabilities of a greater than 50% chance of at least advisory- criteria gusts (46+ mph) have trended a little lower over the past day, however still think there is a decent chance of a peak wind gust reaching criteria for mainly coastal sections east of Manhattan given the setup and potential help from heavy downpours. The current forecast has gusts 40-50mph for coastal areas and 30-40mph for most inland areas during Sunday night.

High pressure then builds in through the rest of Monday and remains in control through Thursday with an extended period of dry weather and highs generally in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure builds in from the west through morning, then offshore in the afternoon.

VFR. Light W winds will veer to the NW-N and/or become light and variable. A light southerly flow develops in the afternoon.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are not expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Friday Night-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing rain from west to east during the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms at night. S winds increasing with gusts 30 to 40 kt, mainly late day into night. Highest winds will be at the coastal terminals. LLWS likely.

Monday: Chance of rain showers early with MVFR possible.
Otherwise, becoming VFR. W-WSW wind gusts 30-40 kt early, becoming WNW by afternoon with gusts 25-30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure building in tonight and remaining in control through Saturday, winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Saturday night.

Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to gales in all likelihood by late in the day/early evening. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for most of the waters. Gales may continue well in the afternoon on the ocean.
Ocean seas are likely build to 10-16 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft across portions of eastern Long Island Sound. SCA conds on the ocean for Tuesday as seas remain elevated.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.

1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain are expected from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Perth Amboy
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Thu -- 01:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:23 AM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     4.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Perth Amboy, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Thu -- 01:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:17 AM EST     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:16 PM EST     1.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:25 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM EST     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:19 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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