Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Perth Amboy, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) Flooding remains possible this morning as a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms pivots through the area. Chances for additional showers and thunderstorms linger through Thursday.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents at all local ocean beaches today. (See Marine section)

3) Potential for minor coastal flooding during this evening's high tide cycle.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Band of heavy rain oriented N-S continues to slowly pivot east through the region this morning in association with troughing in place and low pressure passing through. KOKX and MRMS radar data highlight the surface low spinning about 60 miles SSE of JFK.

With the surface low nearby and the upper low overhead, the flooding threat continues this morning, particularly across Long Island and Southern Connecticut. Rainfall rates here could still approach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Once this band lifts north and east through mid morning, the threat for wider scale hydro issues lessens, though additional rainfall is likely later today as scattered showers develop and pivot in from the north and west.

With this in mind, Flood Watch was allowed to expire for NYC, NE NJ, and the LoHud Valley, and continued to remain in effect until 2 PM for S CT and LI. Antecedent rainfall over the past day across portions of NJ and the LoHud Valley is as high as 3 to 5 inches and it won't take much additional rainfall in a short amount of time to cause issue. Flashier creeks and streams, as well as smaller rivers like the Saddle, could also exceed their banks.

The system is slow to exit as the trough lingers overhead through Thursday, which will instigate additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven. Locally heavy downpours remain a possibility, though the axis of deepest moisture slides east from the area this morning, and PWATs fall from around 2 inches toward an inch and half, which should lower max rainfall rates.

Troughing weakens and low pressure finally exits by Friday, with building surface high pressure from the west helping usher in drier conditions and temperatures returning once again into the 80s in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2
See Marine section for details on rip current risk.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Tides are astronomically elevated from this morning's full moon. Winds shift offshore today as low pressure passes east, which should help to mitigate tidal piling, but can't entirely rule out the more vulnerable locations along the back bays of the south shore of Long Island and coastal Queens and Nassau from touching or briefly exceeding minor flood thresholds during this evening's high tide cycle. Confidence remains too low to warrant a statement issuance at this time.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A slow moving low pressure system will linger near the area through the TAF period.

Mainly MVFR this morning, improving to VFR for most by late morning/early afternoon. Lowering back down to MVFR tonight into early Thursday morning. Brief lowering to IFR can't be ruled out, mainly for KBDR and KGON. The heaviest showers have weakened, with some moderate to locally heavy bands moving through KGON early this morning. Otherwise, showers become more scattered by the afternoon. There is potential for an embedded thunderstorms this afternoon, but confidence is low at this time.

Winds are a challenge as low pressure tracks nearby the coastal terminals. In fact, it may take until Wednesday night for the low to pass to the east of KGON. KGON may even see gusts up to 20 kt with the gradient remaining a bit tighter during the day.
For the time, expect winds to become northerly over most of the terminals by late morning as the low passes to the east. KGON is forecast to be mainly E/SE.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds will be a challenge as low pressure tracks close to the terminals. Amendments are highly likely for wind direction.

Amendments are also likely for changing flight categories, especially for improving conditions today.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. N-NW wind G15-20kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
S/SE winds gusts 25 to 30 kt continue early today, subsiding as low pressure passes east through the waters this morning and winds turn W/NW. Ocean seas 5 to 6 feet then gradually lower through the afternoon.

Thereafter, sub SCA conditions expected on all waters through the weekend.

Rip Currents...

There is a high risk of rip currents today at all local ocean beaches. Onshore flow 10 to 20 kt to start the day along with 4 to 5 ft swells at 6 sec periods drive this threat.

The risk lowers to moderate for all beaches on Thursday as swells begin to lower and winds turn offshore.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ078>081-177- 179.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-340-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.