NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure builds in today behind the departing cold front that is now well offshore. While the closed upper level low lifts north today, an upper level trough will linger over the area.

A cooler and drier airmass is being advected into the area in a NW/W flow. An unseasonably cool day is expected, with dry conditions and sunny skies. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for early September.
Dewpoints will drop to the low 40s so the air will have a comfortable feel. With deep mixing there could also be 15 to 20 mph gusts through the afternoon.

The pressure gradient tonight is looking just a bit tighter than guidance showed 24+ hours ago. While radiational cooling conditions look good across the interior, went a bit warmer across the LI Pine Barrens with the potential for more wind than previously expected. Low to mid 40s across the interior, mid 40s for the LI Pine Barrens and 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure briefly weakens later on Monday as a surface trough approaches. The trough and associated shortwave aloft look to pass through Monday evening through the night. This feature has trended stronger, but still not expecting any impact to our area. Have added slight chance PoPs to far northwestern locations Monday evening. However, anything that does fall may end up being sprinkles.

A warming trend starts on Monday, with temps back up in the 70s.
Cloud cover Monday night with the aforementioned shortwave will keep overnight lows warmer than Sunday night.

High pressure reestablishes itself over the area on Tuesday. Dry conditions and sunny skies continue. Another great radiational cooling night on Tuesday night will lead to lows mainly in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points:

* Predominantly dry conditions into next weekend.

* Warming trend through the end of the week.

There has not been much change to the forecast thinking for this period. Models continue to be in decent agreement with upper ridging building in to the northeast and amplifying by week's end.
The ridge axis remains to the west of the area into Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift north Tuesday through Friday resulting in an extended dry stretch of sensible weather.
Highs each day will be near or just above seasonable, in the low to mid 80s. The urban corridor may be a few degrees warmer on Thursday and Friday, in the upper 80s, under weak westerly flow. Dewpoints will also be on the increase Thursday into Friday, as southerly flow ramps up as the surface high begins to move offshore.

The NBM was followed closely for this update.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds over the northeast today.

VFR.

NW wind with gusts around 20 kt become frequent at all terminals around or shortly after 13Z. Winds will the gradually back to the WNW by 18Z. Gusts diminish during the evening hours near or after 00Z.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sun Night-Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of isold-sct aft/eve shwrs.

Tue-Thu...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters until 2PM this afternoon due to lingering 5 ft seas. There is also potential for an occasional 25 kt gust across all waters through the day. Winds and seas are then expected to remain below SCA criteria through at least midweek, as the pressure gradient remains weak across the region.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today. While the flow is offshore, a 3-4 ft 5s wind wave will combine with a 2-3 ft 10s easterly swell. This combination likely results in a moderate risk. This thinking is backed by the latest RCMOS guidance.

The moderate risk continues on Monday with a westerly flow a little over 10 kt and a lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at 8s.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.