Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Perth Amboy, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:05PM Thursday January 23, 2020 2:21 AM EST (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:26AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1031 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Rest of tonight..Light and variable winds, becoming W around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the evening, then chance of rain and sleet after midnight.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1031 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains over the waters through the end of the week. Low pressure will then impact the waters over the weekend before high pressure returns early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perth Amboy, NJ
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location: 40.51, -74.26     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 230536 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1236 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. Low pressure impacts the region this weekend. High pressure then builds back in early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. The forecast is on track. For this update adjusted temperatures a bit for the next few hours with ideal radiational conditions taking place. High level clouds are however pushing in from the west and this higher coverage in clouds will last about 3 or 4 hours for the first half of the overnight. Skies will actually go partly to mostly cloudy for some places with clouds at around 20 kft or so, before skies partially clear to a large degree. Therefore partly cloudy skies on average should do it for the overnight, with the majority of the high level cloudiness before 6z-7z, especially across western sections.

High pressure remains across the area overnight with nearly seasonable lows, ranging from the lower teens inland, to 25-30 across the NYC metro. A few of the colder spots will dip into the upper single digits due to good radiational cooling (intervals of mostly clear skies with any clouds being higher level, along with calm winds).

The higher level clouds working in from the west is a result of the upper ridge along the eastern seaboard translating slowly east ahead of an amplifying southern branch trough over the mid section of the country. Overall, have leaned towards a partly cloudy night on average.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Thus far this winter, the dominant southern branch of the polar jet has been in control. This will once again be the case as we head into the weekend with the approach of longwave trough and closed upper low. Before then though, there will be a gradual increase in upper level cloudiness as well as temperatures rising a few degrees above normal. Highs on Thursday will top out in the lower 40s, with lows generally in the 20s in outlying areas to around freezing NYC metro.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will be centered to our northeast on Friday. This continues the dry weather pattern, but mid and high level clouds will probably filter the sunshine. High temperatures will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Models continue to be consistent regarding the upper and surface features for the storm that will impact us this weekend. A cutoff 500mb low moves through the Ohio Valley Friday night and eventually tracks over us late Saturday night. Associated surface low shifts NE from the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning and passes through late Saturday night. Global models are in decent agreement with the track and timing of the storm and have converged on thermal profiles over the past 24 hours. The trend has been toward the warmer side of guidance regarding temperatures in an elevated warm layer. PCPN chances begin late Friday night with PCPN becoming likely for all areas by the end of Saturday morning. Chances then lower Saturday night into Sunday morning with chances still remaining into Sunday afternoon and evening with a cyclonic flow aloft.

PCPN type will be mainly rain for coastal areas with a wintry mix inland. Based on an average of model thermal profiles, it appears that even the coldest spots would see a complete changeover to rain at some point given forecast freezing level heights. NW Orange County could still receive around an inch of snow and sleet accumulation before this changeover. Additionally, a light ice accumulation is possible for some of the NW suburbs Saturday morning as the magnitude of the elevated warm layer would allow for it. Wintry PCPN types return Saturday night into Sunday as thermal profiles cool on the back side of the storm, but any additional snow/sleet accumulation would be very light and confined to mainly NW of NYC.

High pressure builds in behind the storm with dry weather for Monday through Wednesday. Highs all 3 days about 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.

VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds continue overnight. Winds become WSW this morning generally under 5 kts.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night-Friday night. VFR. Saturday-Saturday night. MVFR/IFR in rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior likely changing to rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day diminish at night. Sunday-Sunday night. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain/snow mix possible in any showers across the interior. Monday. VFR.

MARINE. Tranquil conditions will prevail through Thursday with high pressure in control. Winds and seas increase on Friday and Friday night in advance of a storm system that will approach from the SW. Seas on the ocean likely could build to 5 ft Friday night. SCA conds then likely on Saturday for all waters as the low passes through or nearby. Winds on the back side of this storm so far do not appear to be strong, but 25 kt gusts will still be possible Sunday morning on the ocean. Ocean seas will take some time to subside, so 5 ft or greater seas on the ocean through the day on Sunday and probably into Sunday night. Sub- sca conds on all waters are anticipated for most of Monday.

HYDROLOGY. Around an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation is expected Saturday through Saturday night. No adverse hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this point.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. An easterly flow of 15-25 kt with relatively high astronomical high tides following a new moon Friday will bring the threat of at least minor coastal flooding during the high tides cycles of Saturday morning and evening. A good portion of the south shore back bays of Long Island (including Queens and Brooklyn) could be impacted as well as lower NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound. Other areas could be impacted if the track of the upcoming weekend storm changes.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DW NEAR TERM . JE/DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . CB/JE MARINE . JC/DW HYDROLOGY . JC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 10 mi63 min SSW 5.1 G 6
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 11 mi51 min 30°F 40°F1030 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 14 mi51 min 35°F 1029.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi51 min 33°F 36°F1030.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi51 min 34°F 41°F1029.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi31 min W 5.8 G 9.7 38°F 1 ft1030 hPa25°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi51 min 32°F 38°F1030.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi51 min 25°F 33°F1030.4 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi21 min Calm G 1.9 33°F 32°F29°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi45 min Calm G 1 25°F 35°F1029.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi61 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 33°F 28°F

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ15 mi30 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F19°F66%1029.8 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ22 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair19°F19°F100%1029.8 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ23 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair19°F16°F88%1029.6 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi25 minSSW 310.00 miFair26°F19°F78%1030.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi30 minno data10.00 miFair35°F19°F52%1029.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW33W5W5W6W6NW8CalmCalmSW4CalmW4CalmW4W5SW4SW5W4CalmS4CalmW3W5Calm
1 day agoNW8N6NW5NW5W66N9N12NW6NW8
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2 days agoNW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Perth Amboy, New Jersey
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Perth Amboy
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:40 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     5.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:25 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:54 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:12 PM EST     4.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.20.51.83.34.75.75.95.44.32.91.50.3-0.4-0.40.51.83.14.24.84.63.72.71.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:08 AM EST     1.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 PM EST     1.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:53 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:14 PM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.80.11.21.71.61.30.7-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.3-0.60.61.41.61.41.10.3-0.5-1-1.2-1.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.