Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Monmouth, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:29PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 1:31 PM EDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 952 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.small craft advisory in effect Thursday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Rain likely with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 952 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will pass to the east today, followed by weak high pressure tonight. A cold front will move through on Thursday. Associated low pressure will pull away into the canadian maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the west on Saturday. Low pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday and impact the area Sunday night into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Monmouth, NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 081357 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 957 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will pass to the east today, followed by weak high pressure tonight. A cold front will move through on Thursday. Associated low pressure will pull away into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the west on Saturday. Low pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday and impact the area Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Expecting mainly dry conds today, but with plenty of low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion resulting in a partly to mostly cloudy sky today, with the 11Z RAP/HRRR showing only potential for a shower or two across Long Island this afternoon. Some clearing may occur late on a N-NW flow. This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Weak ridging will result in a quiet night ahead of another system which will impact the region during the day on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 40s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

On Thursday, a strong shortwave will dive out of the Great Lakes with a surface low tracking out of Canada into the northeast. This low will drag a strong cold front through the area, likely sometime from late morning through the mid afternoon. A strong jet developing just to the south will provide deep-layer shear and strong lift, however instability continues to look marginal at this time. Even with low CAPE, strong dynamics aloft will likely result in a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms moving through in the early afternoon. The biggest threat with these showers and storms would be gusty winds.

Immediately following the frontal passage, the sky will clear and we should mix out. BUFKIT soundings are indicating a period of gusty winds of 30 to 35 mph during the afternoon and into the overnight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. To start, expect brisk conds on Fri, with isold-sct showers as low pressure pulls away. Inland sections especially the higher elevations could see some snow mixed in during the morning. W-NW winds will be on the brisk side due to the departing low's tight pres gradient, so expect winds at or near advy criteria in the greater NYC metro area and across Long Island, and possibly elsewhere.

High pressure then builds across Sat into Sat night. Guidance shows more nrn stream interaction with a srn stream low pressure system approaching for Sunday into Mon, and so have gone with its slower trend. That guidance is also decidedly wetter and windier, which makes sense given the strengthening offshore high and long S fetch, at least per ECMWF. GFS fcsts a secondary low to develop along the coast which, if it develops, would probably result in a stout E-SE rather than S flow. Given the very good warmth/moisture transport via either a S fetch or enhanced convergence/lift via a secondary low, heavy rain also looks like a good bet, with axis of heaviest rain a little to early to know for certain.

Temps about 5-8 deg below normal on Fri, with highs in the lower/mid 50s, will moderate somewhat on Sat to mid/upper 50s, still slightly below avg. Temps on Sunday/Mon ahead of the approaching low should warm up, with upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday, and 60s to lower 70s on Mon, highest away from the coast.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low pressure will be east of the terminals by late this morning with weak high pressure to follow.

MVFR ceilings will likely linger into early this afternoon across many of the terminals, and IFR conditions are likely at times through this morning with a rather weak northerly flow. Improvement to VFR is expected this afternoon, however, east of the New York City terminals MVFR conditions likely remain into mid afternoon.

A N-NE wind at 5-10 kt backs to NW in the afternoon before a seabreeze develops at the coastal terminals. S/SE winds tonight at less than 10 kt and increase to 10-15 kt with G20kt by mid to late morning Friday.

Chance of showers by 15Z Friday.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improvement to VFR. Winds will be light and variable at times this morning.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improvement to VFR. Winds will be light and variable at times this morning.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improvement to VFR. Winds will be light and variable at times this morning.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improvement to VFR. Winds will be light and variable at times this morning.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improvement to VFR. Winds will be light and variable at times this morning.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improvement to VFR. Winds will be light and variable at times this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thu. MVFR/IFR in the morning with showers and thunderstorms, becoming VFR in the afternoon. W G30-35 kt in the afternoon. LLWS possible in the morning. Fri. VFR with W winds 20-30kt g35-40kt. Sat-Sun. VFR.

MARINE. Quiet today as low pressure passes east, with only a 2-ft ocean swell at most.

A strong frontal system will then impact the waters on Thursday, preceded by a strengthening S flow that will likely bring at a minimum SCA conditions to the ocean waters by late morning. This will be short-lived though as a strong cold front works across the waters in the afternoon with the potential for westerly gusts to approach gale force.

As low pressure rapidly deepens over northern New England Thursday night, westerly gales will likely develop across all waters and continue into Friday with gusts up to 40 kt.

Winds will gradually diminish Friday night into Saturday with SCA conditions for much of the period. High pressure will build across the waters Saturday night.

Increasing S flow between a strengthening offshore high and approaching low pressure may bring SCA conds to all waters Sunday night. Some gale force wind gusts may be possible on the ocean waters late.

FIRE WEATHER. Wetting rains on Thu should help limit fire growth potential on Fri despite strong winds and low afternoon RH. With some drying out Sat could be a day of concern, with W winds still gusting to 30 mph and min RH 20-30%.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected from the showers impacting the area this morning.

A quarter to a half an inch of rain is expected Thursday, but locally higher amounts could be realized. Low chance of minor nuisance flooding on Thursday.

QPF for the low pressure system Sunday night into Mon has trended wetter, with amts of 1-2 inches fcst. This may be capable of causing some minor areal and small stream issues.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High astronomical tides due to the supermoon and a positive tidal anomaly will be factors for the total water level forecast through Wednesday. Winds will not be strong, about a 10 kt onshore flow or less, so tidal piling and wind forcing will not be too much, limiting the coastal flood potential.

Hazards are as follows:

Tonight through Wednesday: Coastal flood statements across much of the shorelines of NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound, and South Shore Bays. The total water level will be around 1/2 to 1 foot above astronomical tides, so about 1/2 to 1 foot of surge during times of high tide. Isolated minor coastal flooding will be the result.

Wednesday Night: Coastal flood advisories for the more vulnerable coastal locations across NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound, South Shore Bays and SW Suffolk NY. The total water level will be 1 to 2 feet above astronomical tides, so about 1 to 2 feet of surge during times of high tide. Widespread minor coastal flooding will be the result. Other nearby locations such as Eastern Union NJ, Eastern Essex NJ, Manhattan, Bronx, Northern Queens will get close to touching minor coastal flood benchmarks. These less exposed coastal locations have a coastal flood statement for Wednesday night, more of an isolated minor coastal flood situation.

Minor coastal flooding potential remains on Thursday with astronomical tides still being high. There will also be a strong cold front approaching that will bring increased onshore winds during the day. Much lower total water levels occur Thursday night into Friday as winds strengthen out of the west, a stronger offshore flow overall. Any lingering coastal flood threat diminishes rapidly Thursday night.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-075-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ080. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006. MARINE . Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . CB/Goodman NEAR TERM . CB/Goodman SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . CB/Goodman AVIATION . MET MARINE . Goodman/DW FIRE WEATHER . HYDROLOGY . CB/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 5 mi44 min N 8.9 G 12 57°F 50°F1001.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 9 mi44 min N 8.9 G 11 58°F 1000.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 9 mi44 min 58°F 51°F1001 hPa
MHRN6 10 mi44 min WNW 13 G 16
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 12 mi44 min 59°F 49°F1001.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi32 min N 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 1001 hPa (+1.0)48°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 24 mi44 min NE 5.1 G 6 52°F 55°F1001.8 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 29 mi32 min E 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 32°F48°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi47 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 46°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi44 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 68°F 56°F1000.8 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ14 mi41 minNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F46°F56%1000.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY16 mi41 minNNW 10 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F50°F70%1001.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi41 minVar 510.00 miOvercast59°F46°F62%1001 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi41 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F46°F72%1001.1 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi41 minNW 710.00 miOvercast59°F46°F64%1000.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW104SE11SE10SE85CalmCalmS5S7S8SW7SW4SW3SW9SW5S11NW7NW8N7N115N9NW10
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NW11NW11NW13NW10NW11NW9NW6NW6NW6NW6NW8NW7NW7W5W6W5W6W5--NW5Calm3
2 days agoE4SE9SE10SE6E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N10N9NE5N7N8N6N8N6N4N7W9

Tide / Current Tables for New Dorp Beach, New York
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New Dorp Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:40 AM EDT     6.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:15 PM EDT     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:08 PM EDT     6.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.5-0.6-1-0.31.33.24.95.96.15.442.40.9-0.3-1-0.70.72.74.666.76.35.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:43 AM EDT     -2.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:44 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:47 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:04 PM EDT     -2.55 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:15 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2.5-2.6-2.2-1.4-0.3122.21.91-0.3-1.4-2.2-2.5-2.3-1.5-0.50.722.52.21.60.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.