Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Monmouth, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry, gusty and seasonably mild with elevated fire weather concerns for most of the area today.

2. Unseasonably warm (15 to 25 degrees above normal) next week, with record or near record high max temps and minimum temperatures possible Tue thru Thu for portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A gusty/drying NW flow through this afternoon, with RH lowering to 25-30% over most of the area as temps rise to the upper 50s/lower 60s and dewpoints drop to 25-30, with peak wind gusts 25-30 mph this morning into early afternoon. This will bring an elevated risk for fire spread today across the entire area, with Special WX statement issued for NY/CT per coordination with state fire and land management officials.

Winds will diminish late this afternoon into evening as high pressure builds in tonight into Sunday morning, then moves offshore Sunday afternoon. A return flow off the ocean will keep temperatures from getting out of the 50s on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A noticeable warmup is still on track for next week as overnight lows and daytime highs will be at least 10 degrees to as much as 20-25 degrees above normal inland, with the warmest days Wed/Thu. Upper ridging will be in place with nearly zonal flow Monday into Tuesday as a series of warm front pass through, with reinforcing ridging Wed/Thu. H8 temperatures on Wed should peak near 15C and may reach 17C-18C on Thu, with inland temperatures potentially reaching into the mid/upper 80s both days per blend of NBM 90th percentile and 00Z GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance. Inland areas will be the warmest as the low level flow remains southwest, while coastal areas will be cooler, but still well above normal levels, with a southerly sea breeze influenced flow.

A surface trough developing Tue/Wed afternoons, along with convergence with local sea breezes, may be the focus for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, though chance PoP is confined to inland sections attm. Cold fropa later this week may be delayed until Thu night per latest ECMWF.

Friday is expected to be cooler behind the cold front, but with highs still reaching 75-80 inland.

A few daily record highs mat be tied or broken on Wed, as well as record high minimum temperatures Tue through Thu.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure builds in from the west today, and remains in place through Sunday morning, then drifts offshore during the afternoon.

VFR thru the TAF period.

NW winds gusting 20 to 25kt, with the highest gusts likely this morning into the early afternoon. The gusts end towards 00Z, with a few city terminals perhaps having gusts linger as late as 02Z. Otherwise lighter NW to N winds tonight mostly at 5 to 10kt, but falling below 5kt at outlying terminals late. The winds will remain light into Sunday morning, with a SE wind developing towards midday.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: VFR. SE winds develop by afternoon at 5-12kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds 10g20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Expanded SCA for all waters through this afternoon for near shore winds gusting to 25 kt. Hazardous ocean seas of 3 to 5 ft should continue through this time as well from residual easterly swells and NW winds waves.

Sub SCA conditions tonight into Sunday, although a brief period of late afternoon/early evening southerly 20-25 kt gusts possible at entrance to NY harbor and adjacent near shore waters with seabreeze enhanced S/SE winds.

A strengthening S-SW flow may bring marginal SCA gusts and building SCA seas (4-6 ft)to the ocean waters late Sun Night into Mon night. SCA gusts will likely be across NY Harbor and western LI Sound Mon aft/eve as well, with marginal gusts possible for remainder of nearshore waters.

Seas on the ocean waters (particularly east of Fire Island Inlet) may remain marginally near SCA levels (3-5ft) thru midweek w/ persistent S/SW flow.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.