Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:30PM Saturday July 11, 2020 3:53 PM EDT (19:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:03AMMoonset 11:55AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 236 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers. Showers and tstms likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 236 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will approach going into this evening and eventually cross the waters late tonight. Thereafter, a series of weak fronts will cross the area through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg , NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 111744 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 144 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. The remnants of Fay will continue to move up the Hudson River Valley today, with a weak front cold approaching this afternoon in its wake. A series of weak fronts will cross the area through mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Made some minor adjustments to temperatures, dewpoints, and clouds to better match observed trends.

Remnants of Fay track up the Hudson Valley today, while its associated closed low shear into an approaching longwave trough. Mean trough axis will continue to work towards the coast today, while an embedded shortwave pivots into western and Central NY late today.

Stratus and residual fog should burn off through late morning. Then, a very warm and very humid day today, with partial sunshine allowing temperatures to rise into to the mid to upper 80s most of the region, and upper 80s to around 90 for NE NJ/NYC metro. Tds in the lower to mid 70s will lend to heat indices in the mid 90s.

Approaching shortwave will provide trigger, and pre-frontal trough, sea-breeze and outflow boundaries should provide foci for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across NE New Jersey, NYC, Lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT this afternoon/evening in a very moist, weak CIN, moderate to highly unstable airmass with modest deep layer shear. This environment will present a threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe storms (multi-cell or even an isolated supercell), with potential damaging wind gust and even large hail threat if high instability is realized. In addition training thunderstorm potential along N/S boundaries or outflow interactions presents a threat for localized flash flooding. Layer precipitable water is forecast to reach near 1.75 to 2 inches across the region through the afternoon, so thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential downpours.

With the higher shear and instability, kept small hail and gusty winds as well as heavy rain mention as those are going to be probably the most common attributes of thunderstorms that develop.

High surf of 4 to 7 ft and dangerous rip currents are expected today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Mean troughing continues during this period, with shortwave energy swinging through Saturday evening, and pre-frontal trough/cold front pushing eastward. CAMS indicating convection should weaken fairly rapidly this evening as the shortwave pivots NE with drier air advecting in at midlevels and eastward moving convection running into more stable marine layer E and NE of NYC metro.

Warm and slightly less humid air advects in the wake of the trough tonight, with clearing conditions.

Mean troughing persists on Sunday, but a drier airmass advects in wake of today's shortwave. Weak shortwave energy approaches in the afternoon, but with a lack of distinct focus for convection and mid-level capping in an otherwise only marginally unstable environment, the prospects for afternoon/evening convection look to be meager.

Deep mixing and plenty of sunshine should allow temps to rise in the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide, potentially nearing 95 for NYC/NJ metro. Dewpoints will have the opportunity to mix out into the lower to mid 60s, which should keep heat indices near air temps, generally lower 90s. So conditions at this point look to fall below 2 days of 95 heat indices (heat advisory criteria) at this time.

A high risk of rip currents continues for Atlantic Ocean beaches on Sunday, with continued 5-6 ft swell at 8-9 sec period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The mean trough axis will remain fairly stationary near the region through early next week as it is reinforced by a series of shortwaves rotating through the Great Lakes into New England. Decent agreement that by mid week this trough axis finally lifts ne of the area, with heat ridging attempting to build into the area for late week into the weekend.

This setup will have a deep S/SW flow across the region on Monday, with a seasonably warm and humid day. Good signal for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity Monday as trough axis approaches the area in the afternoon, with a marginally unstable and modestly sheared environment. Potential for a few strong storms in this environment, but severe threat does not look optimal.

Trough axis slides east Monday Night, with amplifying shortwave trough sliding into the New England Tuesday. Drier airmass works in for Tuesday, but vigorous shortwave may be trigger for isolated diurnal convection off higher terrain, and then sinking se into our region.

General agreement with the mean trough axis lifting northeast of the region Wed, with building heights. If this plays out, deep WSW flow will advect in the building heat across the central US, with the hottest airmass of the season for late week into the weekend. With the region lying on northern periphery of this ridge and active westerlies across US/Canada border, and potentially moderate to high instability to work with, an occasional MCS or organized convective threat rolling through the area is not out of the question during this period.

A moderate to high rip current risk will likely continue into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A weak front will cross the region this afternoon.

MVFR ceilings and visibilities continue at KISP, KGON and KBDR due to a persistent low cloud bank that is starting to erode. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions expected this afternoon outside of any showers and thunderstorms. This could allow for a brief return of MVFR or lower conditions for all terminals. TSRA already starting to develop across NYC terminals and are expected to increase in coverage between about 19Z- 23Z, particularly for NYC terminals and KHPN, KSWF.

Southerly flow through the day today, with gusts to 15-20 kt during the afternoon. Any gusts should diminish this evening, with winds shifting to the WSW overnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower conditions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR. Thursday. VFR with chance of afternoon SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions possible.

MARINE. Winds have subsided below 25 kt on nearshore waters this morning, but ocean seas will remain elevated today in a southerly swell. Swells subside to 5-6 feet today, but remaining steady through Sunday.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria on all waters through the middle of the week, although ocean seas will remain elevated through at least Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. Scattered thunderstorm activity this aft/eve in a very moist and unstable airmass over northeastern NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, SW CT and NYC will present a localized urban and poor drainage flash flooding threat. NE NJ river basins have FFG values as low as 1/2 inch in 1 hr, which presents a threat of flash flooding along small streams and creeks in this area.

Otherwise, no significant widespread rain expected through Fri.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Potential for beach flooding and beach erosion this afternoon during the times of high tide.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . NV NEAR TERM . JM/NV SHORT TERM . NV LONG TERM . NV AVIATION . DBR MARINE . FEB/JM HYDROLOGY . NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 8 mi54 min S 12 G 17
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi54 min 87°F 78°F1004.1 hPa (-2.0)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi54 min SSE 9.9 G 11 81°F 78°F1004.9 hPa (-1.6)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi54 min S 8 G 9.9 78°F 1004.2 hPa (-1.8)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi54 min 82°F 76°F1004.5 hPa (-1.8)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi34 min S 16 G 19 72°F1004.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi54 min SSW 14 G 15 77°F 1005.2 hPa (-1.6)
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi54 min S 12 G 16 79°F 74°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 42 mi69 min S 14 G 19 80°F 1 ft71°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi54 min WSW 9.9 G 15 85°F 80°F1004.8 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi63 minS 8 G 1810.00 miThunderstorm84°F73°F72%1003.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi63 minN 06.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist79°F75°F90%1004.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi63 minS 136.00 miFog/Mist77°F73°F90%1004.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi63 minSSE 9 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F71°F65%1004.2 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi63 minSSW 47.00 miThunderstorm Rain80°F75°F87%1004.2 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi69 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F77°F67%1004.1 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi58 minSSW 11 G 1610.00 miFair87°F75°F67%1005 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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E3W8CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S6S5S4S3SW3CalmW3Calm3S4S5S53S75SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:00 AM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:39 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.54.84.53.72.61.710.60.61.22.13.13.84.34.443.22.41.81.41.31.62.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:28 PM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 PM EDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.30.8-0.1-1-1.6-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.10.91.41.41.10.4-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.30.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.