Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belford, NJ

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Weak high pressure moves across the area this morning and offshore by the afternoon. A shortwave and surface low gradually approach from the north and will result in some increasing cloud cover during the afternoon.

Colder than normal conditions continue with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Aforementioned low pressure deepens as it passes to the north and will help drag a cold front through our area. A cold airmass builds in behind the front. There looks to be at least a 12 to 18 hour period late tonight into Monday where the pressure gradient is relatively tight and we see a nice shot of cold advection. Due to NBM low bias with wind/wind gusts in these regimes, have blended in the NBM90th. Peak gusts look like they will occur Monday morning, up to around 30 mph. Some isolated 35 to 40 mph gusts can't be completely ruled out. Given the cold airmass, highs on Monday are expected to top out in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Wind chill values through much of Monday will be in the teens.

Still some uncertainty with how low the temperatures can get Monday night. Winds lighten as the center of the high sets up just to our northwest. The question is how much, if any, cloud cover will be around. Blended in some CONSMOS with the NBM to get temperatures a bit lower in the outlying areas, but more cloud cover would result in warmer temperatures than currently forecast.

High pressure shifts east Tuesday and a return flow sets up.
Broad low pressure approaches from the west and could bring some precip to the area by the end of the Short Term period. As of right now, this would likely fall as snow for the interior and rain closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NBM was followed with only minor changes made to winds.

Key Points:

* A series of quick-moving systems brings chances of precipitation to the area through Saturday. Precipitation types of mainly rain for the coast and a wintry mix inland.

* Temperatures below normal through the period except on Wednesday, when they'll be near normal.

* Conditions likely remain below warning and advisory thresholds.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases during the Thursday night- Saturday period. This is when model spread increases regarding the position and timing of low pressure centers/frontal boundaries that may impact the area. Chances of precipitation are at 50% or lower through the long term period.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure moves across the area this morning and offshore by afternoon. A strong cold front approaching from the northwest will pass through the area tonight, clearing the coastal terminals by around midnight. High pressure will then build in from the west Monday.

VFR.

A light WNW/NW to variable wind this morning will back around to the SW in the afternoon at around 10 kt. Winds will then veer to the WSW this evening and become NW-N following the cold frontal passage, increasing to 10-15 kt G20-25 kt. N winds will begin to diminish Monday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds could vary quite a bit this morning as weak high pressure slides through, but will generally be 5 kt or less.

Wind shift with cold front could vary by 1-2 hours and the onset of NW gusts could be delayed a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt. Winds gradually diminishing in the afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds increase behind a cold frontal passage tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters starting 1 AM Monday for 30 kt wind gusts. Seas on the ocean are also expected to briefly reach 5-6 feet.

Conditions lower below SCA levels Monday night, but likely return again Tuesday night. SCAs may be needed through much of the week after that as a couple of low pressure systems look to impact the area.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350- 353-355.