Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belford, NJ
May 9, 2024 12:13 PM EDT (16:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 6:26 AM Moonset 10:22 PM |
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1130 Am Edt Thu May 9 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon - .
This afternoon - N winds around 5 kt, becoming e. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late.
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Showers in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Fri - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1130 Am Edt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Multiple low pressure systems form southwest of the waters today and track nearby to the south tonight through Friday night. A series of lows move through the vicinity of the region this weekend. High pressure builds offshore for early next week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 091537 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1137 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
Multiple low pressure systems form southwest of the area today and track nearby to the south tonight through Friday night. A series of lows move through the vicinity of the region this weekend.
High pressure builds offshore for early next week before another low potentially moves in for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect current observations.
Clouds will continue to lower and thicken through the afternoon.
The pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front pressing further south slackens off by mid to late morning, thus the winds will be light throughout the day and generally around 5 mph or so. Multiple low pressure centers from across the Ohio Valley during the first half of today, before getting into the Central Appalachians later today and this evening. This will bring more in the way of clouds towards late this afternoon and this evening. Have pushed back the timing of the higher coverage / percentage of rain / showers for today. A good percentage of the day will be completely dry. This will change however towards the late day and evening. Temperatures will be close to normal with mainly upper 60s to lower 70s.
During this evening the column will gradually moisten. Showers should break out for all areas at some point during the evening. The low level flow will start to become onshore and out of the ENE. This should lead to a stratiform rain / shower activity, although there is some hint of a small amount of CAPE / instability in BUFKIT soundings. Much of the time the rain will be light, with perhaps a couple of moderate pulses into Friday morning. Temperatures should average closer to normal with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
For Friday expect overcast skies with periods of light rain continuing. The CAMs are in fairly good agreement on it being a damp and unsettled day. There are differences among the various guidance as to whether some steadier rain could develop for the afternoon as suggested by some HRRR model runs. The winds will remain onshore out of the ENE and this will keep temperatures below average with a wind off the colder water and overcast skies. Temperatures therefore in all likelihood will have difficulty getting out of the 50s.
For Friday night the last wave of low pressure gets a bit further to the south and eventually offshore. This should lead to more of a NE to N flow which should result in a little bit of low level drying.
Thus the guidance is indicating light rain or showers becoming more intermittent and even ending before daybreak Saturday. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch. Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50 for lows.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The upper level jet is shown to remain south of the region this weekend and then with more ridging next week, parts of the upper level jet traverse the local area.
Mid level trough south of region Saturday morning, then shifts east during the day with brief ridging as the local area will be in between shortwaves.
Next shortwave moves in Saturday night with another moving south of the region Sunday. The larger trough encompassing these shortwaves and periodic positive vort maxima will be lingering across the region through Sunday. This trough then moves east of the region Sunday night.
Overall, the larger scales convey a mid level ridging trend taking place for early into middle of next week for the local area. For Monday night into early Tuesday next week, a subtle small shortwave embedded within the ridge is forecast to move across. Wednesday into Wednesday night, the next trough could be potentially moving in from the west, although the timing with the guidance varies with some not bringing in the trough until Thursday
At the surface, low pressure moves south and eventually southeast of the region Saturday. Weak pressure gradient follows across the local region. This weak high pressure will be brief as low pressure approaches Saturday night and moves near to south of the area early Sunday. Low pressure passes southeast of the region Sunday into Sunday night.
Offshore high pressure briefly builds in late Sunday night into early Monday and then moves farther offshore as another wave of low pressure approaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. This low pressure will be weak and will traverse the local area late Monday night into early Tuesday. Another low may approach the area next Wednesday.
Chances of rain showers are forecast much of this weekend. Despite cooler air aloft, cooler air will also be in place at the surface, so there may not be as much instability on Sunday as previously thought. Have removed chances for thunderstorms in favor of showers on Sunday.
Mainly dry conditions are forecast Sunday night through Monday.
Then, the next chance of rain showers is forecast Monday night and again Tuesday afternoon into the midweek timeframe, depending on how and when the trough sets up and traverses the region.
Temperatures for the weekend exhibit less of a diurnal trend, and generally expected to be below normal for daytime hours and then near to above normal for next week.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front that passed through overnight stalls to our south today along the Mid Atlantic. A wave of low pressure tracks along the stalled boundary to our south late today into tomorrow.
VFR thru today. Conditions deteriorate after 00Z this evening as showers develops and cigs lower, with MVFR occurring a few hours after the rain's arrival, and potentially to IFR toward daybreak Friday and for the AM push, particularly for western and coastal terminals. No improvement until early Friday afternoon with intermittent showers persisting thru then.
A general northerly flow around 10 kt today with occasional gusts toward 20 kt which should decrease as the afternoon progresses. Flow shifts southerly or southeasterly in the afternoon with sea breeze development pushing inland, likely in the 18-21Z period. Direction backs easterly tonight and 20 kt gusts return overnight as the low tracks closer. Easterly flow persists into Friday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional 20 kt gusts possible into early this afternoon.
Sea breeze development and resulting S/SE flow timing may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of lower category cigs and vsbys, as well as arrival of showers, may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: MVFR or lower with showers likely. SE G20kt.
Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will lead to light winds for much of today, before a E to ENE wind gets established tonight. Sub small craft conditions will prevail through today with 2 ft ocean seas. By tonight the ENE flow should increase enough on the north side of a front down to the south. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts which may be more occasional for the remaining non-ocean waters for tonight. By Friday the winds should very slowly decrease as the winds gradually back more to the NE and N into Friday night. Thus, prevailing sub small craft conditions likely to resume by late Friday afternoon. For the long term period of Saturday through Monday night, SCA conditions are unlikely for winds with waves on the ocean remaining around 3 feet, occasionally 4 feet.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon earlier this week.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories are also in effect for Thursday evening / night for Southern Queens, Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ. Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE Suffolk as some spots may touch minor benchmarks. Another and perhaps final round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for Friday night.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071-078.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Friday for NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338-350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1137 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
Multiple low pressure systems form southwest of the area today and track nearby to the south tonight through Friday night. A series of lows move through the vicinity of the region this weekend.
High pressure builds offshore for early next week before another low potentially moves in for the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect current observations.
Clouds will continue to lower and thicken through the afternoon.
The pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front pressing further south slackens off by mid to late morning, thus the winds will be light throughout the day and generally around 5 mph or so. Multiple low pressure centers from across the Ohio Valley during the first half of today, before getting into the Central Appalachians later today and this evening. This will bring more in the way of clouds towards late this afternoon and this evening. Have pushed back the timing of the higher coverage / percentage of rain / showers for today. A good percentage of the day will be completely dry. This will change however towards the late day and evening. Temperatures will be close to normal with mainly upper 60s to lower 70s.
During this evening the column will gradually moisten. Showers should break out for all areas at some point during the evening. The low level flow will start to become onshore and out of the ENE. This should lead to a stratiform rain / shower activity, although there is some hint of a small amount of CAPE / instability in BUFKIT soundings. Much of the time the rain will be light, with perhaps a couple of moderate pulses into Friday morning. Temperatures should average closer to normal with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
For Friday expect overcast skies with periods of light rain continuing. The CAMs are in fairly good agreement on it being a damp and unsettled day. There are differences among the various guidance as to whether some steadier rain could develop for the afternoon as suggested by some HRRR model runs. The winds will remain onshore out of the ENE and this will keep temperatures below average with a wind off the colder water and overcast skies. Temperatures therefore in all likelihood will have difficulty getting out of the 50s.
For Friday night the last wave of low pressure gets a bit further to the south and eventually offshore. This should lead to more of a NE to N flow which should result in a little bit of low level drying.
Thus the guidance is indicating light rain or showers becoming more intermittent and even ending before daybreak Saturday. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch. Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50 for lows.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The upper level jet is shown to remain south of the region this weekend and then with more ridging next week, parts of the upper level jet traverse the local area.
Mid level trough south of region Saturday morning, then shifts east during the day with brief ridging as the local area will be in between shortwaves.
Next shortwave moves in Saturday night with another moving south of the region Sunday. The larger trough encompassing these shortwaves and periodic positive vort maxima will be lingering across the region through Sunday. This trough then moves east of the region Sunday night.
Overall, the larger scales convey a mid level ridging trend taking place for early into middle of next week for the local area. For Monday night into early Tuesday next week, a subtle small shortwave embedded within the ridge is forecast to move across. Wednesday into Wednesday night, the next trough could be potentially moving in from the west, although the timing with the guidance varies with some not bringing in the trough until Thursday
At the surface, low pressure moves south and eventually southeast of the region Saturday. Weak pressure gradient follows across the local region. This weak high pressure will be brief as low pressure approaches Saturday night and moves near to south of the area early Sunday. Low pressure passes southeast of the region Sunday into Sunday night.
Offshore high pressure briefly builds in late Sunday night into early Monday and then moves farther offshore as another wave of low pressure approaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. This low pressure will be weak and will traverse the local area late Monday night into early Tuesday. Another low may approach the area next Wednesday.
Chances of rain showers are forecast much of this weekend. Despite cooler air aloft, cooler air will also be in place at the surface, so there may not be as much instability on Sunday as previously thought. Have removed chances for thunderstorms in favor of showers on Sunday.
Mainly dry conditions are forecast Sunday night through Monday.
Then, the next chance of rain showers is forecast Monday night and again Tuesday afternoon into the midweek timeframe, depending on how and when the trough sets up and traverses the region.
Temperatures for the weekend exhibit less of a diurnal trend, and generally expected to be below normal for daytime hours and then near to above normal for next week.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front that passed through overnight stalls to our south today along the Mid Atlantic. A wave of low pressure tracks along the stalled boundary to our south late today into tomorrow.
VFR thru today. Conditions deteriorate after 00Z this evening as showers develops and cigs lower, with MVFR occurring a few hours after the rain's arrival, and potentially to IFR toward daybreak Friday and for the AM push, particularly for western and coastal terminals. No improvement until early Friday afternoon with intermittent showers persisting thru then.
A general northerly flow around 10 kt today with occasional gusts toward 20 kt which should decrease as the afternoon progresses. Flow shifts southerly or southeasterly in the afternoon with sea breeze development pushing inland, likely in the 18-21Z period. Direction backs easterly tonight and 20 kt gusts return overnight as the low tracks closer. Easterly flow persists into Friday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional 20 kt gusts possible into early this afternoon.
Sea breeze development and resulting S/SE flow timing may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of lower category cigs and vsbys, as well as arrival of showers, may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: MVFR or lower with showers likely. SE G20kt.
Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will lead to light winds for much of today, before a E to ENE wind gets established tonight. Sub small craft conditions will prevail through today with 2 ft ocean seas. By tonight the ENE flow should increase enough on the north side of a front down to the south. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts which may be more occasional for the remaining non-ocean waters for tonight. By Friday the winds should very slowly decrease as the winds gradually back more to the NE and N into Friday night. Thus, prevailing sub small craft conditions likely to resume by late Friday afternoon. For the long term period of Saturday through Monday night, SCA conditions are unlikely for winds with waves on the ocean remaining around 3 feet, occasionally 4 feet.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon earlier this week.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories are also in effect for Thursday evening / night for Southern Queens, Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ. Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE Suffolk as some spots may touch minor benchmarks. Another and perhaps final round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for Friday night.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071-078.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Friday for NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338-350-353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 5 mi | 55 min | NNW 8G | 65°F | 63°F | 29.76 | ||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 9 mi | 55 min | NNE 8G | 63°F | 29.73 | |||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 11 mi | 55 min | 65°F | 58°F | 29.68 | |||
| MHRN6 | 11 mi | 55 min | NE 9.9G | |||||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 20 mi | 43 min | NW 3.9G | 59°F | 57°F | 29.74 | 55°F | |
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 22 mi | 55 min | NNE 7G | 63°F | 29.75 | |||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 28 mi | 43 min | N 7.8 | 62°F | 29.72 | 50°F | ||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 48 mi | 43 min | N 3.9G | 57°F | 54°F | 29.74 | 53°F | |
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 49 mi | 55 min | NE 1.9G | 66°F | 65°F | 29.76 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 11 sm | 17 min | var 06G30 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 52°F | 60% | 29.75 | |
| KEWR NEWARK LIBERTY INTL,NJ | 14 sm | 22 min | NE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 48°F | 46% | 29.73 | |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 14 sm | 22 min | N 13 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 48°F | 49% | 29.74 | |
| KLDJ LINDEN,NJ | 14 sm | 18 min | ENE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 45°F | 40% | 29.74 | |
| KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 18 sm | 22 min | N 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 46°F | 52% | 29.73 | |
| KTEB TETERBORO,NJ | 22 sm | 22 min | NNE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 48°F | 56% | 29.72 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Coney Island, New York, Tide feet
The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT 1.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:57 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EDT 2.29 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT 1.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:57 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EDT 2.29 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1 |
| 1 am |
| -1.9 |
| 2 am |
| -2.4 |
| 3 am |
| -2.4 |
| 4 am |
| -2 |
| 5 am |
| -1.2 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.7 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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