Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sewaren, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface high pressure and upper ridge will remain over the region through Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper level closed low, and associated trough will move through southern Canada and the Northern Plain states tonight, and move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s. Sunday, highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure over the area slides east Sunday night. This will allow a frontal system to impact the region late Sunday night into Monday. First, a warm front will lift north across the region Sunday night, then a cold front will follow on Monday.

Expect POPs to gradually increase Sunday night with showers becoming likely after midnight and continuing into Monday morning. With some CAPE and instability, along with the forcing, isolated thunder cannot be ruled out. With the warm air moving in, Sunday night's lows will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

The upper closed low opens Monday as the upper trough become negatively tilted, slowing the eastward progression of the associated cold front. Showers and isolated thunder will continue much of the day before the cold front moves east by Monday evening.
Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Good model agreement on Hudson Bay upper low on Monday, gradually sliding east into northern New England mid next week, before gradually lifting NE Friday into next weekend. Model spread increase for late week on how quickly the upper trough lifts.

Deep NW flow continues to bring in a fall airmass through mid-week (coolest of the early fall season so far) as high pressure gradually builds to the west of the region, and a series of reinforcing cold fronts move through the area Tue Night and Wed Night, bringing heart of cool airmass Wed into Thu. Mainly dry conditions during this period, but as southern periphery of upper low moves overhead and a couple of embedded shortwaves rotate through sct-bkn instability cu likely, and even isolated instability shra/sprinkle activity across the interior Wed and Thu aft/eve.

Highs Tue are likely to run slightly to a few degrees below seasonable, and then several degrees below seasonable Wed/Thu (Upper 50s to 60 F interior, lower 60s to 65F city/coast) as heart of cool airmass descends on the region. Bias corrected NBM deterministic continues to run close to NBM 75-95th percentile of raw ensemble during this period (highest for the coast), so potential that the deterministic could be running a bit high considering this regime change and persistent caa. Have blended NBM deterministic and NBM 50th based on above, with potential for diurnal temps to trend down a few degrees from current forecast.

Mixed low-levels should keep overnight lows from bottoming out thru much of the time period, but far outlying areas would be several degrees cooler than forecast Mon Night thru Thu Night if able to decouple, bringing a low potential for frost, particularly Wed and Thu Night. MOS guidance will provide a better picture within a 72 hr window on this threat.

NBM spread increases for Friday into the weekend based on how quickly upper trough lifts ne, but overall a moderating trend signaled for Fri into the weekend as upper low (cold core) likely lifts.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds into the area through Sunday morning, then gives way to an approaching frontal system. The associated warm front lifts through the area Sunday night, followed by the cold frontal passage on Monday.

Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in showers after 06Z Monday.

N/NE winds less than 10 kt overnight will veer around to the S/SE on Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night through Monday: MVFR likely in showers late Sunday night into Monday. Becoming VFR Monday afternoon with showers ending from west to east. Chance of NW G15-20kt Monday afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. W-NW G15-20kt, mainly late morning into the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions remain across the forecast waters through Sunday. Ocean seas are expected to build to SCA levels Sunday night as long period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for forecast details) move into the waters. Long period swells from Hurricane Kirk peak at 5 to 6 feet Monday, gradually subsiding below SCA late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Generally sub-SCA NW gusts through midweek, but low potential for brief nocturnal marginal SCA gusts over the ocean in wake of reinforcing cold fronts Mon Night thru Thu Night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.