Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sewaren, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Snow continues to fall, locally heavy at times, into late afternoon for NYC and locales north and west. Hazardous travel conditions continue with reduced visibilities and snow covered roads. Total accumulation up to several inches expected through late day in these areas.

2.) A coastal low will likely bring more light snow accumulation to the area on Sunday. The highest confidence in snow continues to be for the eastern half of the area, with more uncertainty for western locations. Latest forecast has 1 to 3 inches for southern CT and Long Island with an inch or lower for other locations.

3.) Cold weather is expected Monday through Friday with the coldest period Monday night through Tuesday night, with sub freezing highs Tuesday. No record cold expected through the period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Low pressure advances into southeast Canada today with an attendant cold front approaching locally from the west.
Sufficient moisture and lift have allowed a shield of precipitation to develop ahead of the boundary, and this will continue to work east through the area into late day.

Winter Weather Advisory continues for Orange, Putnam, and Western Passaic, and have expanded into Northern Fairfield, Northern Westchester, Rockland, Western Bergen through 4 PM this afternoon. Obs and local traffic cameras indicate a steady moderate to locally heavy snow falling and accumulating here as temperatures have fallen back to around freezing. Total snowfall of 2 to 4 inches can be expected by evening.

Farther east, lighter rates and more marginal temperatures will mitigate similar accumulations, though could still see up to an inch across western LI and into south central CT. Snow may start as or simply fall as a chilly light rain into SE CT and eastern LI with little impact. Conditions dry out by early evening as the associated frontal boundary works east.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A shortwave embedded in the larger upper level trough over the eastern US will lift towards the area on Sunday. This will aid in surface low pressure development near the southeast US coast.
Track variability continues to lessen with the latest 00z guidance. Confidence is increasing in a light snowfall accumulation for eastern LI and CT, but uncertainty remains farther west. AI guidance and some deterministic guidance seems to be trying to meet in the middle the last few runs. Last few runs of the AIGFS and EC-AIFS have trended just slightly farther southeast with the low center and lower with QPF. Latest deterministic GFS and NAM have trended slightly closer to the coast.

Confidence is high enough at this time to forecast 1 to 3 inches for southern CT and Long Island and an inch or lower elsewhere. However, there is some concern now with surface temperatures and how well snow will actually be able to accumulate in some of those eastern areas. This trend will have to be monitored, but for now have kept forecast at likely snow with chance/slight chance rain. It could be a situation where snow has a hard time sticking at first with light intensity.
Lift in the DGZ looks to be stronger Sunday afternoon which would help increase snowfall intensity.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Cold weather will remain across the region next week, with, temperatures remaining below normal much of the time. The coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night as Canadian cold air moves into the region behind a cold frontal passage Monday night. Temperatures during this period will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Despite the anomalously cold air no records are expected to be set. And with windy conditions Monday into Tuesday, wind chill values will remain higher than cold weather advisory criteria. For Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be near normal to near 5 degrees below normal. Another shot of cold air moves in for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures both days remaining right around or below the freezing mark. There will be minimal chances of light snow and/or light rain Thursday into Friday as weak low pressure systems pass near the region.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A frontal system will move across the terminals through this evening with one cold front passage late this afternoon into this evening with a secondary cold front late tonight.

Low pressure develops on the front along the southeastern coast late tonight and tracks northward through Sunday.

MVFR to IFR and LIFR with light to moderate snow, with briefly heavy snow and VLIFR possible mainly east of the NYC terminals, will be ending late afternoon into early this evening.
Conditions improve to VFR through this evening as winds become light westerly.

VFR until early Sunday morning, during the morning push, when conditions are expected to quickly lower to MVFR to IFR with light snow. By late Sunday morning IFR to LIFR is expected as light snow continues through the afternoon.

Light SW to W flow this afternoon into this evening becomes light and variable by late tonight. A light east to northeast flow develops early Sunday morning.

Snow Accumulations today:

SWF: 3-5 inches HPN/EWR/TEB: 1-2 inches JFK/LGA/ISP/BDR: 1/2 to 1 inch GON: little to no accumulation

Snow Accumulations Sunday: Generally 2-4 inches across the terminals, except 1-2 inches at SWF.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely into this evening for timing of snow ending and flight categories improving.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night: Periods of snow with IFR to LIFR, and locally VLIFR, mainly afternoon into the early evening. Snow ends west to east during the evening with conditions slowly improving becoming VFR after 06Z, but remaining MVFR to IFR at KGON.

Monday: VFR. WSW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW to S winds 15-20 kt during the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance of light snow, maybe snow/rain along the coast with MVFR to IFR. SW to W winds 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters due to elevated seas. Late tonight the Advisory comes down for the western ocean zone but it has been extended for the central and eastern ocean zones through Sunday.

There will only be a brief lull Sunday night before seas and winds start to increase on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected much of next week for the ocean waters and Monday and Tuesday for the non-ocean waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ005.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.