NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Minor changes were made this this early night update.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Mostly clear sky conditions start tonight with high pressure centered just offshore of southern New England. Onshore flow persists into tonight, pushing dew points along the coast into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This plus radiational cooling should lead to more fog and low stratus late tonight. Capped at areas of fog for now, but localized dense fog is possible, especially in the valleys. Low temperatures tonight range from the mid 50s inland and across a good deal of eastern Long Island, to the lower 60s in the NYC metro area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Amplifying deep layer ridging over the Great Lakes translates east across the region into the weekend while surface high pressure remains centered just offshore.

No precipitation is expected in the period, but morning fog and stratus possible each morning with the persistent, light onshore flow. This burns off with heating and leads to abundant sunshine both days, perhaps filtered through a bit of haze from an elevated wildfire smoke plume passing through the Northeast.

Temperatures run several degrees above normal for mid September as the ridge builds overhead. Highs on Friday top out within a few degrees of 80, warmest across urban NE NJ. Saturday may be a hair warmer, with low to mid 80s across the Tri-State. Overnight lows bottom out in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Overall, weather remains mainly dry with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday of next week, when there could be some rain showers.
Confidence not high on this however, so have just slight chance POPs for rain showers as there is more model uncertainty with the forecast. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain mostly near normal as the airmass will not exhibit significant changes.

Each late night into the early morning, there will be potential for fog formation especially outside of NYC. Have mentioned patchy fog for much of the region outside of NYC for early Sunday morning as well as for late Sunday night into early Monday morning. The same cyclical fog formation and subsequent dissipation with diurnal heating could very well occur for late night into morning of the remainder of the forecast period.

Aloft, strong ridge over the region Sunday will linger into early next week and then gradually shift offshore Tuesday into the middle of next week. GFS and Canadian models are showing a trough approaching the region for latter part of next week while the ECMWF keeps a stronger ridge and a weaker approaching trough.

At the surface, high pressure continue to maintain control over the weather across the region, keeping dry conditions Sunday through early next week. By Wednesday and Thursday of next week, the operational GFS and Canadian models are indicating more weakening of pressure across the local region with high pressure farther out to sea. These two models are conveying the approach of a frontal system with some rain returning to the local region. The GFS model shows less rain than the Canadian model for the local area. ECMWF operational model keeps stronger high pressure closer to the area and is much drier, keeping the area dry through next Thursday.

After noting a general increase across the area with regards to POPs within the LREF, did slightly increase POPs spatially across the region for Wednesday night through Thursday night. However, after noting a shift to later in the week with the rainfall compared to previous forecast, POPs remain in slight chance for showers. In addition, the LREF 500mb height depiction and operational models do not show too much of a decrease in the 500mb height, with the operational Canadian models showing more of a negative anomaly with respect to the LREF 500mb height percentile analysis, below the 25th percentile. This leans the forecast to relatively less rain shower chances, thereby keeping more continuity with the previous forecast considering the increasing uncertainty for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

Temperatures throughout the long term are not forecast to deviate much from normal values. High temperatures are generally in the upper 70s to near 80 for most locations during the day. Lows for late night into early morning are generally in the 50s and 60s. The lows range from the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday night and Monday night and then more in the upper 50s to upper 60s for Tuesday night and Wednesday night of next week.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure remains centered to our east through Friday.

VFR for much of the period. There is a chance for IFR cigs/vsbys from about 08Z to 13Z Friday. The combination of increasing low-level moisture is forecast to allow for the development of low clouds and fog late tonight. Best chance looks to be at the coastal terminals. Confidence is waving on the time window for for IFR, as some model guidance appears to be backing off on the chances of occurrence. Have gone with prevailing at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, followed by TEMPOs at all other terminals.

Winds become light and variable tonight. Onshore flow will redevelop on Friday from the S-SE. KLGA may stay from the NE into early afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KLGA could hold on to NE winds 1-2 hours longer than currently forecast.

Timing of MVFR/IFR may be off by one or two hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but a chance of MVFR or lower fog/clouds for each late night/early morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions on the waters are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds through early next week with an overall weak pressure gradient in place. Wind gusts are expected to remain below 20 kt and the maximum seas forecast on the ocean is 4 ft. The 4 ft ocean seas are forecast to be mainly in the Monday through Tuesday night timeframe.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With an approaching full moon for next week on September 17th, astronomical levels will be rising leading up to that date. With the continuous easterly flow, this will help build seas and allow for some piling of water. Winds are expected to remain generally light, near 10 kt or less. Thinking there will be a possibility for some tidal locations to be near or at minor coastal flood benchmarks as indicated by some surge models Sunday into early next week during their respective times of high tide. This would be mainly for the South Shore Bays and Western Long Island Sound shorelines and maybe a few locations along the NY Harbor.

Regarding the rip currents, without much change in airmass and low level winds over the next few days, forecasting a moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches Friday and Saturday. This will be from a continuing easterly flow as well as slowly building ocean seas getting to a range of 2 to 3 feet. Averages of rip current MOS also were taken into account, with an overall moderate rip current risk forecast.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.