Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Beach, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dangerous rip currents expected Thursday.

2) Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

3) Low pressure may produce locally heavy rain as well as thunderstorms around the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Strong onshore flow to around 30kt will create rough surf and dangerous rip currents on Thu. Breaking waves in the 4-6ft range are likely, despite a lack of long period swell. A high rip current risk statement has been issued.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A 140+ kt h3 jet over wrn Canada will reach the ern Great Lakes on Thu, albeit with slightly weaker flow of around 120kt. Locally, this will allow a strong mid lvl jet to set up across the area, resulting in 0-6km bulk shear of around 70kt. Despite the strong wind fields, there does remain some uncertainty wrt to the severe threat due to the potential lack of instability for much of the area as sly flow cranks off the ocean.

In this scenario, the extreme swrn portion of the cwa could see the greatest severe threat where temps will be 10-15 degrees warmer than most of the area, yielding SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. If tstms do initiate in this zone, the threat appears to be damaging winds and an isold small spinup. Elsewhere, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg but a more stable marine influenced bl in place, the main threat appears to be isold-sct damaging winds punching thru the stable layer at times.

Since the event is still more than a day out, the exact details are likely to change. However, the key takeaway is that the winds will be there for severe, it will just depend on how the instability shapes up.


KEY MESSAGE 3
The modeling suggests low pres developing east of the Rockies this weekend will track across the country and bring rain to the area sometime during the beginning of next week. Timing right now is as early as Sun ngt, and as late as Mon ngt. Signal is reflected in the NBM pops which are 60 percent even this far out.

Convection embedded in this sys will enhance rainfall rates, and the GFS already suggests over an inch in a swath along and north of the low track. Would expect some higher amounts than this due to the convective component. There may also be a severe risk in the warm sector, although it gets tricky once again locally with any onshore flow limiting instability.



AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front approaches the terminals on Wednesday, gradually lifting to the north Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A few showers are possible this afternoon from the NYC metro terminals on NW. Brief MVFR cannot be ruled out. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.

There is a chance for IFR-MVFR conditions late tonight/early Thursday morning. Showers may also occur towards KSWF early Thursday morning.

Mainly light and/or variable flow early this morning. Winds become SE after 12-14z and gradually increase through the day. Speeds 10-15 kt, strongest at coastal terminals. An occasional gust up to 20 kt possible at NYC terminals. Winds settle to 10 kt or less tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated thunderstorm possible this 18z-00z, but confidence too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon and early evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late Tonight: Chance of MVFR or IFR. Showers possible NW of NYC metro terminals.

Thursday: Showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Chance of MVFR or IFR conditions. SW winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, strongest near the coast. Winds and gusts weaken in the evening.
gusts near 25-30kt day into early eve, then gusts near 20kt.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt Saturday and 20 kt on Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas blw sca lvls today, then S winds pick of tngt with sca conditions developing on Thu. An advy has been issued for all waters Thu and Thu ngt, although the peak winds appear to be during the day on Thu. There is a chance for winds to reach mrgnl gale force, especially on the ocean, but confidence is too low attm. In addition, tstms will be possible on Thu and any of these will be capable of producing winds over 35kt.

W winds are modeled to stay blw sca lvls on Fri, although seas on the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft. Similar conditions on Sat, but even more mrgnl, then winds and seas blw sca lvls all waters for Sun.

Low pres may impact the waters on Mon, with sca conditions possible.

Rip Currents:

Today, the rip current risk is moderate due to SE flow increasing to around 10kt and waves around 2 ft.

For Thursday, the rip current risk is high with strong S winds and waves around 4-6 ft.

For Friday, the rip current risk is moderate to high with lingering swell and gusty W winds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.