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FXUS63 KGID 080535 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1135 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight chance (less than 30 percent chance) of light rain across north central Kansas and portions of south central Nebraska Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

- North to northwest winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph are expected on Saturday associated with a cold front.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday afternoon across far western and southern portions of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is beginning to move over the Central and Northern Plains. A surface low extends from western North Dakota south towards West Texas. Surface winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are becoming southwest to west in response to the surface low. Temperatures this afternoon will warm up in response to the surface low with highs expected to be in the 60s with sunny to mostly sunny skies. Lower humidity values of between 20 to 30 percent will be present this afternoon across western portions of Dawson, Gosper, and Furnas Counties which will increase fire weather concerns. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 30s with clouds increasing across the area.

Friday through Saturday night...

A broad upper trough will be present over the western two thirds of the country on Friday. A cold front associated with the upper trough will move into the area on Friday. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will primarily be out of the west to northwest on Friday. Additional lift with the upper trough and cold front may result in some light rain showers across portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Chances of precipitation are less than 30 percent. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s. Another surge of colder air will move into the area on Saturday resulting in high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Gusty, northerly winds are also expected on Saturday behind the front with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph. Humidity values between 20 and 30 percent are expected across far western and southern portions of the forecast area Saturday which will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather when combined with the gusty winds. Skies will clear out Saturday night with fairly light west to northwest winds. Temperatures will drop into the teens and twenties Saturday night across the area.

Sunday through Wednesday night...

The upper trough begins to move east of the area on Sunday with winds out of the southwest to west across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures will gradually warm up from the previous day with highs in the 40s and 50s. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 20s. Temperatures will continue to increase on Monday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Lows Monday night will be similar to those on Sunday night. A cold front associated with an upper trough will move into the area on Tuesday. This front will bring high temperatures down into the 40s across most of the area on Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures Tuesday night will drop into the teens and twenties.
Temperatures will increase slightly Wednesday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. Low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to be in mid 20s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1118 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. BKN-OVC skies expected at times (especially Friday afternoon and evening), but ceilings should remain around or above 10kft.

West-northwest winds continue through most of the period, eventually turning more northwestward and increasing late Friday night.

CLIMATE
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2023

-- TODAY'S (DEC. 7) EXISTING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR GRAND ISLAND REMAINED "SAFER" THAN EXPECTED:

Although parts of our western, and also southeastern coverage area (CWA) indeed soared into the 60s today for highs (even some low 70s far west!), the presence of lighter winds/less mixing right in the heart of our CWA actually kept highs down in the 50s there (including Grand Island/Hastings, etc).

As a result, Grand Island's existing Dec. 7th record high temp has remained much "safer" than we expected 12+ hours ago.

- Grand Island airport (GRI): Dec. 7 (today)
high as of 345 PM only 55
record 65 (1984/1970)

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.

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