Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stockville, NE
May 18, 2024 7:02 AM CDT (12:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 3:20 PM Moonset 3:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 181137 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 637 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- After a dry daytime Saturday, active weather including the threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall returns for Sunday through Tuesday.
- The threat for a late season frost appears limited but a brief cooldown around the middle of next week may support at least a localized potential.
- The extended forecast looks to remain active, but day-to-day predictability of precipitation chances remains low confidence at this time.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Quiet conditions are largely expected through the daytime Saturday.
Currently, mid to high-level cloud cover continues to percolate across our southern and eastern zones as of 0800z (3am CDT). This is occurring in an area of modest mid-level lift via weak fgen ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave disturbance tracking through the northern Rockies. Though a few echoes are showing up on radar, no indication is apparent that any moisture is reaching the ground. This is likely due to aforementioned weak lift and surface dew point depressions of 20 to 25 degF in the area. Lift will wane during the daytime hours as a progressive cool front dives south and lagging mid-level lift quickly follows. Northerly flow will settle across the forecast area which will help cool things a bit from Friday's well-above normal values. Leaned on NBM output plus short-term guidance for today's high temperatures. Even with appreciable CAA during the first half of the day, h85 temperatures will generally remain near climatological values. This will support daytime highs near climatological values too with afternoon values +/- 5 degF of average for mid/late May, ranging from upper 60s near the Pine Ridge to low 80s in far southwest Nebraska. Northwest winds will linger through the day until abruptly flipping to the southeast this evening as surface high pressure shifts east of the area. Areas of north central Nebraska may see some northwest gusts nearing 30 mph at times, but these are expected to decrease through the afternoon and fall to less than 15 mph by early evening.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Active weather returns tonight, lasting through the first half of the upcoming week. Rain and thunderstorms, with a threat for locally heavy rain and severe weather, are the pertinent messages for this time frame.
Beginning Saturday night, increasing southerly flow will settle across the central and southern High Plains as surface high pressure shifts east. With a strengthening LLJ, moisture flux will ramp up considerably. NAEFS guidance highlights vapor transport exceeding the 90th percentile for our western zones through the overnight hours into Sunday morning. This broad warm-air/moisture advection will be the focus for scattered rain and thunderstorms during the pre-dawn hours. With steep mid-level lapse rates across much of the region, instability will be plentiful for a mention of thunderstorms. Forecast soundings, however, show fairly meager instability aloft. MUCAPE values prior to dawn will largely be limited to less than 1000 j/kg outside of areas south of Interstate 80. Fairly even distribution of the instability in a saturated profile does raise some concerns for locally heavy rainfall though.
HRRR ensemble max values show fairly widespread 0.75"+ QPF with pockets of 1.50-2.00". The question regarding this is how far north the focus for forcing makes it. SREF and NAM solutions depict this threat stretching from near MCK up through ONL whereas HRRR guidance is further south closer to a GLD to EAR line. For now, leaned on SREF/NAM outputs for PoPs potential and the further north depictions. For the most part, this matches latest GEFS probabilities falls short of ECMWF and EPS guidance which both show a further north yet bullseye. Either way, areas that see the prime focus of lift will need to be mindful of heavy rainfall during the overnight hours.
Sunday...questions surround expanse of residual cloud cover and how that affects recovery ahead of the next round of rain and thunderstorms. Atmosphere recovery will be the key feature regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening Sunday. Developing surface low across eastern Wyoming will occur in an area of enhanced southwesterly flow. At the surface, a dryline will extend south from the Black Hills through northeast Colorado and into far southwest Kansas. Continued southerly flow will usher in rich low-level moisture as surface dew points climb into the upper 50s to low 60s across a broad warm sector. Even with a broad warm sector and widespread moderate moisture quality, instability will be limited to a narrow corridor roughly between the Highway 385 and Highway 61 corridor. This is due to lingering cloud cover further east limiting insolation and keeping afternoon highs limited. Current forecast highs range from the middle 80s in southwest Nebraska to middle 70s across north central. This is the lingering uncertainty, predominantly regarding eastward extension of the greatest instability, limits confidence in precise details for Sunday convection. The latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook introduced a localized Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across southwest Nebraska with the remainder of the local area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Am in general agreement with this decision locally as unfavorable warm sectors have limited previous severe weather threats this year and believe this is shaping up to be another example of this. Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon along the dryline as low-level convergence increases and capping erodes. Storm motion vectors will be northwest to southeast, which should allow residence time in the areas of greatest instability to last into the late evening hours. With h5 flow of 35 to 45 knots, sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for storm organization likely favoring discrete supercells with initial development as BWD vectors are largely orthogonal to the surface boundary. With MU-LI values nearing -10 degC and long/straight hodographs above 1km, believe hail to be the greatest threat until potential for upscale growth translates to a more damaging winds threat. Latest hi-res guidance shows a mature MCS diving east out of the higher terrain late Sunday evening into early Monday. This is likely due to merging cold pools and continued southerly flow feeding rich theta-e air into any ongoing activity. For now, believe this threat to be overplayed by guidance, notably the HRRR, but the potential will need monitored.
Even so, rain and thunderstorm coverage will quickly track east and exit the area by early Monday morning. This will leave a lull of approximately 12 to 18 hours in the area before the next system arrives from the west.
Monday and Tuesday...amplifying flow will set up across the western CONUS on the southern periphery of an h5 low located in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. This feature will slowly drift east through Monday and into early Tuesday. As this occurs, southerly flow will continue to usher in richer moisture content through the profile.
Both EPS/GEFS solutions show PWAT values exceeding 100% of normal by early Monday with further increases through the daytime. The latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows a broad area of anomalous QPF mainly for Monday night into Tuesday with non-zero Shift of Tails values. This suggests an anomalous rainfall event with non- zero threat for some extreme values that may threaten some records.
Height falls increase by Tuesday as the elongated trough ejects onto the Plains and a surface low lifts north and east across Kansas and into eastern Nebraska. Western Nebraska will fall squarely in the area of greatest deformation so lift will be fairly strong locally leading to the threat for rain and thunderstorms and potential for locally heavy QPF
Given these aforementioned ingredients
strong lift and anomalous moisture, the pieces are coming together for a notable precipitation event. NBM probabilistic guidance suggests a 50/50 shot at seeing > 1.00" across central and northeast Nebraska.
EPS/GEFS mean output for QPF on Tuesday range from 0.75" to 1.25" for much of the local area with deterministic solutions suggesting locally higher amounts. Latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook includes a Marginal Risk for the area Monday. Believe this to be adequate at this time and localized flooding threat will need to be monitored. Temperatures will be held in check Monday due to expansive rain and clouds with values only reaching the 60s for much of the Sandhills and the low to middle 70s elsewhere. Cooler temperatures yet arrive Tuesday with highs only in the 50s and 60s for the whole of western Nebraska.
Wednesday and beyond...a convoluted pattern will set up by mid-week, lingering into the latter half of the week. The cutoff low across southern Canada will stall immediately north of North Dakota.
Multiple disturbances will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature bringing recurring rain chances to much of the region.
Generally speaking, day-to-day variability in temperatures won't be significant as 25th to 75th percentile ranges show minimal wavering for Thursday and beyond. So following one more cooler day on Wednesday, temperatures appear set to return to seasonable values to end the forecast period. Until the evolution of the main h5 cut-off becomes more certain, precipitation chances and when they'll be favored will remain fairly uncertain. What can be said though is the pattern appears to remain active and should support enough precipitation potential to stave off any prolonged dry spell at this time.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon as clear skies continue across the region. Increasing clouds are expected by late afternoon across southwest Nebraska in advance of the next system with ceilings not dropping to below 5000 feet until after 06Z Sunday. Stronger winds will also develop across mainly northern Nebraska after 00Z Sunday where southerly gusts up to 25 knots are possible. Some low level wind shear is also possible during the overnight hours as a trough pushes into Nebraska.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 637 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- After a dry daytime Saturday, active weather including the threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall returns for Sunday through Tuesday.
- The threat for a late season frost appears limited but a brief cooldown around the middle of next week may support at least a localized potential.
- The extended forecast looks to remain active, but day-to-day predictability of precipitation chances remains low confidence at this time.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Quiet conditions are largely expected through the daytime Saturday.
Currently, mid to high-level cloud cover continues to percolate across our southern and eastern zones as of 0800z (3am CDT). This is occurring in an area of modest mid-level lift via weak fgen ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave disturbance tracking through the northern Rockies. Though a few echoes are showing up on radar, no indication is apparent that any moisture is reaching the ground. This is likely due to aforementioned weak lift and surface dew point depressions of 20 to 25 degF in the area. Lift will wane during the daytime hours as a progressive cool front dives south and lagging mid-level lift quickly follows. Northerly flow will settle across the forecast area which will help cool things a bit from Friday's well-above normal values. Leaned on NBM output plus short-term guidance for today's high temperatures. Even with appreciable CAA during the first half of the day, h85 temperatures will generally remain near climatological values. This will support daytime highs near climatological values too with afternoon values +/- 5 degF of average for mid/late May, ranging from upper 60s near the Pine Ridge to low 80s in far southwest Nebraska. Northwest winds will linger through the day until abruptly flipping to the southeast this evening as surface high pressure shifts east of the area. Areas of north central Nebraska may see some northwest gusts nearing 30 mph at times, but these are expected to decrease through the afternoon and fall to less than 15 mph by early evening.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Active weather returns tonight, lasting through the first half of the upcoming week. Rain and thunderstorms, with a threat for locally heavy rain and severe weather, are the pertinent messages for this time frame.
Beginning Saturday night, increasing southerly flow will settle across the central and southern High Plains as surface high pressure shifts east. With a strengthening LLJ, moisture flux will ramp up considerably. NAEFS guidance highlights vapor transport exceeding the 90th percentile for our western zones through the overnight hours into Sunday morning. This broad warm-air/moisture advection will be the focus for scattered rain and thunderstorms during the pre-dawn hours. With steep mid-level lapse rates across much of the region, instability will be plentiful for a mention of thunderstorms. Forecast soundings, however, show fairly meager instability aloft. MUCAPE values prior to dawn will largely be limited to less than 1000 j/kg outside of areas south of Interstate 80. Fairly even distribution of the instability in a saturated profile does raise some concerns for locally heavy rainfall though.
HRRR ensemble max values show fairly widespread 0.75"+ QPF with pockets of 1.50-2.00". The question regarding this is how far north the focus for forcing makes it. SREF and NAM solutions depict this threat stretching from near MCK up through ONL whereas HRRR guidance is further south closer to a GLD to EAR line. For now, leaned on SREF/NAM outputs for PoPs potential and the further north depictions. For the most part, this matches latest GEFS probabilities falls short of ECMWF and EPS guidance which both show a further north yet bullseye. Either way, areas that see the prime focus of lift will need to be mindful of heavy rainfall during the overnight hours.
Sunday...questions surround expanse of residual cloud cover and how that affects recovery ahead of the next round of rain and thunderstorms. Atmosphere recovery will be the key feature regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening Sunday. Developing surface low across eastern Wyoming will occur in an area of enhanced southwesterly flow. At the surface, a dryline will extend south from the Black Hills through northeast Colorado and into far southwest Kansas. Continued southerly flow will usher in rich low-level moisture as surface dew points climb into the upper 50s to low 60s across a broad warm sector. Even with a broad warm sector and widespread moderate moisture quality, instability will be limited to a narrow corridor roughly between the Highway 385 and Highway 61 corridor. This is due to lingering cloud cover further east limiting insolation and keeping afternoon highs limited. Current forecast highs range from the middle 80s in southwest Nebraska to middle 70s across north central. This is the lingering uncertainty, predominantly regarding eastward extension of the greatest instability, limits confidence in precise details for Sunday convection. The latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook introduced a localized Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across southwest Nebraska with the remainder of the local area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Am in general agreement with this decision locally as unfavorable warm sectors have limited previous severe weather threats this year and believe this is shaping up to be another example of this. Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon along the dryline as low-level convergence increases and capping erodes. Storm motion vectors will be northwest to southeast, which should allow residence time in the areas of greatest instability to last into the late evening hours. With h5 flow of 35 to 45 knots, sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for storm organization likely favoring discrete supercells with initial development as BWD vectors are largely orthogonal to the surface boundary. With MU-LI values nearing -10 degC and long/straight hodographs above 1km, believe hail to be the greatest threat until potential for upscale growth translates to a more damaging winds threat. Latest hi-res guidance shows a mature MCS diving east out of the higher terrain late Sunday evening into early Monday. This is likely due to merging cold pools and continued southerly flow feeding rich theta-e air into any ongoing activity. For now, believe this threat to be overplayed by guidance, notably the HRRR, but the potential will need monitored.
Even so, rain and thunderstorm coverage will quickly track east and exit the area by early Monday morning. This will leave a lull of approximately 12 to 18 hours in the area before the next system arrives from the west.
Monday and Tuesday...amplifying flow will set up across the western CONUS on the southern periphery of an h5 low located in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. This feature will slowly drift east through Monday and into early Tuesday. As this occurs, southerly flow will continue to usher in richer moisture content through the profile.
Both EPS/GEFS solutions show PWAT values exceeding 100% of normal by early Monday with further increases through the daytime. The latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows a broad area of anomalous QPF mainly for Monday night into Tuesday with non-zero Shift of Tails values. This suggests an anomalous rainfall event with non- zero threat for some extreme values that may threaten some records.
Height falls increase by Tuesday as the elongated trough ejects onto the Plains and a surface low lifts north and east across Kansas and into eastern Nebraska. Western Nebraska will fall squarely in the area of greatest deformation so lift will be fairly strong locally leading to the threat for rain and thunderstorms and potential for locally heavy QPF
Given these aforementioned ingredients
strong lift and anomalous moisture, the pieces are coming together for a notable precipitation event. NBM probabilistic guidance suggests a 50/50 shot at seeing > 1.00" across central and northeast Nebraska.
EPS/GEFS mean output for QPF on Tuesday range from 0.75" to 1.25" for much of the local area with deterministic solutions suggesting locally higher amounts. Latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook includes a Marginal Risk for the area Monday. Believe this to be adequate at this time and localized flooding threat will need to be monitored. Temperatures will be held in check Monday due to expansive rain and clouds with values only reaching the 60s for much of the Sandhills and the low to middle 70s elsewhere. Cooler temperatures yet arrive Tuesday with highs only in the 50s and 60s for the whole of western Nebraska.
Wednesday and beyond...a convoluted pattern will set up by mid-week, lingering into the latter half of the week. The cutoff low across southern Canada will stall immediately north of North Dakota.
Multiple disturbances will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature bringing recurring rain chances to much of the region.
Generally speaking, day-to-day variability in temperatures won't be significant as 25th to 75th percentile ranges show minimal wavering for Thursday and beyond. So following one more cooler day on Wednesday, temperatures appear set to return to seasonable values to end the forecast period. Until the evolution of the main h5 cut-off becomes more certain, precipitation chances and when they'll be favored will remain fairly uncertain. What can be said though is the pattern appears to remain active and should support enough precipitation potential to stave off any prolonged dry spell at this time.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon as clear skies continue across the region. Increasing clouds are expected by late afternoon across southwest Nebraska in advance of the next system with ceilings not dropping to below 5000 feet until after 06Z Sunday. Stronger winds will also develop across mainly northern Nebraska after 00Z Sunday where southerly gusts up to 25 knots are possible. Some low level wind shear is also possible during the overnight hours as a trough pushes into Nebraska.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCSB CAMBRIDGE MUNI,NE | 23 sm | 27 min | NW 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 43°F | 43% | 29.76 |
Grand Island, NE,
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