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FXUS63 KLBF 231144 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 644 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Aviation Update

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe thunderstorms as a cold front moves through early this morning.

- Breezy and mild Saturday as rain showers taper across the north.

- Gradual warming and drier through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The radar is becoming active early this morning as a cold front is moving into central Nebraska and encountering copious instability aloft, surging northward with the low level jet. With MUCAPE values approaching 3000J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates, and effective SRH values approaching 300m2/s2 expect storms will initially grow upscale rapidly with potential for an elevated supercell or two capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The most robust convection looks to be on the nose of the low level jet generally between I-80 and Hwy 2. Expect the front will reach Hwy 83 by 5AM CDT if not a bit sooner, then exit the region into eastern Nebraska after 8AM CDT. Locally heavy rainfall will also accompany the storms so will have to monitor runoff very closely especially over areas that received substantial rainfall over the past couple of days.

Breezy northwest winds will continue behind the front as clouds give way to increasing sunshine through the morning hours with afternoon highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, a bit warmer south of I-80. Winds gradually diminish tonight with lows generally in the 40s, followed by dry and slightly warmer conditions on Sunday with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in amplifying an upper ridge over the Rockies through the first part of next week. This ridge will then flatten and make slow eastward progress before settling in as a highly amplified ridge over the eastern US with a trof digging into the PAC NW toward the end of next week. This will bring dry conditions and a notable warming trend to the High Plains through Wednesday with highs midweek generally in the 80s to near 90 degrees. By late in the week, expect breezy conditions and a slight moderation in temperatures with a return to a chance for showers and thunderstorms as the upper ridge axis moves to our east, leaving us under southwesterly flow aloft.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Improving conditions this morning from west to east. IFR ceilings will quickly lift as a cold front and associated TSTMS move through. All areas should be VFR by 19Z with north central NE the last to clear. Otherwise west to northwest gusts will occasionally be around 25 kts...decreasing this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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