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FXUS65 KSLC 032300 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 400 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
One final shortwave will bring a period of moderate to heavy precipitation across northern Utah through late tonight.
High pressure will build back into the region on Monday, with lingering mountain snow possible through the morning. High pressure remains in place through at least mid-week, before another storm system lines up for the second half of the work week.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...Deep moisture remains in place across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon as an inland penetrating atmospheric river continues to bring impacts. Today has seen a trend of increasingly warm conditions overhead, especially up near the UT/ID border, which has allowed for lower elevation northern valleys and the Wasatch Back to transition from snowfall over to rain. Temperatures will continue to warm at the 700mb level, which will only help to increase snow levels through the evening. A trailing shortwave trough will push through the area through the remainder of the evening and early overnight period, bringing one more round of widespread precipitation for the northern half of the forecast area.
However, with continually warming conditions overhead, impacts related to snow will be reserved for elevations above roughly 7000ft (i.e. Logan Summit and the upper Cottonwoods).

This shortwave will pass through the area by early Monday morning, allowing for a transition to primarily orographically driven precipitation across the northern Utah mountains for a brief period of time. Through the remainder of the day on Monday, however, a ridge will begin nosing into the eastern Great Basin region. Surface high pressure will begin to build from north to south, stabilizing conditions across the region which will make it more and more difficult to squeeze out mountain snow as we head through the day. With low level moisture from all the recent precipitation in place across the valley areas, and a relatively calm and mostly clear night, Tuesday is prepping to be a day where we could see some areas of fog developing for valley areas across the northern half of Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...High pressure is expected to be well settled over the region Tuesday and will persist into Wednesday this week. This is forecast to allow for above average temperatures, above 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. This potentially could be a little ambitious however, as models might be struggling with the influence from whatever amount of snow is left on the ground as well as potential impacts from new valley inversions. Right now, max temperatures range from the low 40s to low 50s for northern Utah valleys during this period. This wouldn't have much of any impact on anything but if we start to trend cooler toward that freezing mark we may have some impacts to contend with.

A pattern change is anticipated by Thursday as a shortwave associated with a broad low pressure trough passes into our area.
Another shortwave is anticipated for the day Friday, bringing the most amount of moisture with it out of the three main waves forecast this week. Speaking of which, a third shortwave is forecast for late Friday into Saturday morning though this one appears weaker and with quite a bit less moisture associated with it. With all of these waves, snow accumulations across the northern Utah mountains currently range between 8 and 18 inches with some higher elevation spots in the typically prone locations. Valley snow is forecast as well with forecast ranges between 1 and 3 inches between all three waves. That stated, some areas, like the southern end of the valley, could end up with 6 to 8 inches.

The forecast for much of the Saturday is quiet but this may not stay this way for very long because on this same day, Saturday, forecast models are hinting at another plume of decaying atmospheric river moisture reminiscent of what is occurring today. This would impact Sunday's (the 10th) forecast and again for northern Utah.
If this happens, two Sunday's in a row will be valley rain and wet heavier snow in the mountains. Of course it is far too early to get into too many details regarding this event but amount of moisture content and locations where favored precipitation will be some of the questions to focus on going forward.

AVIATION
KSLC...Light to moderate rain will continue through the evening with CIGs right around MVFR. Rain will end between 8-10Z with a return to VFR conditions as CIGs slowly rise, however mountain obscuration will remain. Winds will remain light out of the south.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Valley rain and mountain snow will continue across northern Utah and SW Wyoming through 8-10Z with MVFR/IFR conditions as CIGs remain low and visibilities reduced.
CIGs will rise after the precipitation ends, but likely remain borderline MVFR/IFR with lowered CIGs and mountain obscuration persisting. VFR conditions will persist across the southern half of the area. Winds will become light and variable.



SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for UTZ110>112.

WY...None.

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