Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indiana, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms chances continue through late evening - Storms could be strong to severe, hail and damaging wind would be the main threat

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Strong to severe storms are currently ongoing this afternoon, ahead of a cold front. The frontal boundary is currently situated near Toledo, OH and stretches southwest into the Mississippi River Valley.

As the ridge slowly breaks down and mid to upper-lvl winds shift from the west, dew points will continue to increase.
Therefore, our chances of instability increase as well with temperatures in the upper-70s to low-80s. With effective wind shear ranging between 55kts-65kts, our probability of strong to severe storms remain elevated through late evening. If conditions permit, severe storms could create damaging wind and quarter sized hail. Despite strong wind shear aloft, ceilings may be considered too high for a tornado threat to promote stretching with rotating updrafts. Hodographs are also depicting a straight line wind threat.

The probability of a favorable severe storm environment will likely decrease from north to south between 7pm to 9pm with the loss of diurnal heating and the passage of a cold front.

Depending on the position of the cold front by midnight, there is also the chance of breaking HiMin temperatures at climate sites.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lingering showers between midnight to 5am south of I-70 Sunday - Dry conditions late morning Sunday through late evening - Warm front will return the potential for showers and storms after midnight Monday - Strong to severe storms potential Sunday afternoon/evening -------------------------------------------------------------------

As the cold front stalls south of I-70 after midnight on Sunday, there may be some lingering showers in the vicinity of the Laurel Highlands.

Dry weather is expected after sunrise on Sunday as ridging returns. Above-average temperatures are likely with deep southwest flow Sunday afternoon.

The probability of showers and thunderstorms increase after midnight on Monday with the passage of a warm front. With elevated instability ranging between 300J/kg to 700J/kg and 30-40kts of shear, there could be a few storms that produce hail early Monday morning before sunrise.

As the cold front progresses Monday evening, additional showers and storms are likely Monday afternoon. Strong shear and instability could create strong to severe storms in the late evening. This time period will need to be monitored over the next 24 hours for potential impacts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Seasonably warm weather continues - Precipitation chances dependent on shortwave movement and ridge location -------------------------------------------------------------------

There remains strong agreement on long range ensemble models on brief ridging within quasi-zonal flow Tuesday that will provide dry weather and maintain the recent trend of above normal temperature.

Those trends may continue Wednesday as the overall 500mb pattern is likely to exhibit little change, but embedded 500mb shortwaves and movement within the 850-700mb level could offer low probability precipitation chances to northwest PA. A few global models hint at potential for upper midwest convection decaying as it reaches this area due to weak shortwave movement. Mention of rain will remain just in this text for now.

The late week into early next week period will be driven by the gradual development of a notable ridge axis and where the corresponding trough sits. A central plains ridge axis may offer a drier period (outside of a transition precipitation day) with temperature trending down toward or potentially even below the seasonal average. A southeast CONUS ridge may offer more periodic precipitation chances with shortwave movement over the ridge top, but a high likelihood for maintaining above normal temperature.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Cloud decks are lowering to the 5-8kft range through the morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder could then enter the region after 14Z, with FKL and DUJ having the best chance of seeing rain first.

As the cold front settles towards the region, an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage is anticipated between 18Z to 23Z. Given the uncertainty surrounding sub-cloud evaporation (at least initially) and the anticipated sporadic/clustered nature of thunderstorms, have maintained PROB30 to account for thunderstorm potential while attempting to highlight the best overall windows for rain using prevailing -SHRA. There is low- end potential for some storms to become strong or severe, primarily during the afternoon and evening. Some of the more southern terminals like MGW might escape without any precip.
Restrictions accompany showers and storms along the front itself before improving behind the cold front overnight into Sunday morning.

Outlook...
Showers, restrictions, and possible thunderstorms could continue south of BVI passed 00Z Sunday with slow advancement of the cold front.

VFR should return Sunday as the front drops south of the area.

A passing warm front early Monday may create isolated restrictions and thunderstorms.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.