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FXUS61 KPBZ 111754 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1254 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake enhanced snow showers will continue through early afternoon, though accumulation is anticipated to be minimal. Dry conditions and seasonable temperature is then expected the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Snow shower activity is rapidly diminishing early this afternoon as dry air aloft is being mixed to the surface. Latest ACARS soundings do have very shallow moisture barely touching -10C but that leading to little more than flurries at this point. While cloud cover will persist for much of the day, mid-level wind shift and building surface ridge will gradually erode the cloud deck. Even so, temperatures will struggle to budge today from the low-mid 30's.

Surface ridge will remain south of the spine of the Appalachians into Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary will pivot across the region, but with very little moisture and most of the synoptic forcing north of the region in Ontario, precip chances remain very low to near zero. Cloud cover will also remain sparse, allowing for a seasonable day with plenty of sunshine.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A larger surface ridge will build over the entire upper Ohio Valley through Thursday. Despite the continued NW flow at 850hpa, temperatures will change little. Some period of clouds will be possible, especially with a shortwave pivoting over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, but temperatures should still be able to reach close to climatological values. Cloud cover on Wednesday may be the limiting factor to hitting those values, but still look to be close. Clearing skies on Wednesday night with the ridge in place may also lend to a very chilly night/early morning Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Long term models suggest a coastal low developing in the Gulf of Mexico between Dec. 17th to Dec 19th. However, the ECMWF and GEFS differ on potential impacts along the East Coast. GEFS has a Nor'eastern developing over the Northeast/New England Monday.
However, ECMWF keeps the low pressure system in the Southeast for numerous days as a blocking pattern develops. Therefore, confidence is low on precip chances and impacts over the weekend and into early next week until models shake out the large scale synoptic pattern.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry air has advanced a bit faster than anticipated, acting to diminish snow shower activity across the area and keep prevailing snow groups out of the TAFs for this afternoon. VCSH was noted in DuBois with slightly higher, but still low snow probabilities. TAFs are expected to linger near high MVFR and low VFR this afternoon before lowering is expected into tonight following diurnal trends. An improvement to VFR this afternoon still remains low probability given limited mixing forecast in overcast decks.

There is medium confidence in the maintenance of MVFR tonight before improvements early tomorrow morning as high pressure builds from the west. Mixing into elevated winds will justify the mention of gusts up to 20kts during the afternoon hours tomorrow.


OUTLOOK
There is high confidence in maintained VFR this week save DUJ and FKL on Wednesday morning with the passage of a cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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