Indiana, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indiana, PA

June 20, 2024 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM
Moonrise 7:06 PM   Moonset 3:05 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indiana, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 200054 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 854 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A dangerous heat wave will impact the region this week. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning are in effect through Saturday.
This event is highly unusual for our region and could be worse than the 1994 heat wave. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind threat.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Excessive Heat Warning for the urban areas of western PA; Heat Advisory continues elsewhere.
- Isolated convection will diminish by midnight, with a quiet overnight period.
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It's been a stark contrast when comparing this afternoon to the past couple. Instead of widespread 90s and downburst-producing thunderstorms, thick cirrus prevented the attainment of convective temperatures across most of our region earlier today, as well as keeping temperatures below 90 degrees in many cases.
A few isolated showers/storms have managed to form in Jefferson County PA this evening, along with a lone Westmoreland County shower that was the result of a boundary collision. A capping inversion at around 800mb also likely had a hand in the lack of activity. Expect this isolated convection to fade over the next couple of hours as daytime heating is lost.

Overnight, localized patches of fog will be possible again tonight and most likely in the river valleys to the southeast of Pittsburgh, where clouds may thin the most. Low temps will once again be in the lower 70s in many areas, allowing for little relief from the heat overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dangerous heat continues through the end of the week with little relief at night.
- Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect.
- Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
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Less upper cloud coverage on Thursday and Friday will allow for highs to reach back into the mid 90s and a 70-80% chance of >95 degrees, highest in the urban areas and valleys. Highs will climb by a few degrees into Saturday with probabilities indicating Saturday may be the hottest. Some records may be challenged. With dew points still in the upper 60s/low 70s, heat index values will remain around or above 100 degrees. 50-80% chance of lows >70 will continue to provide little relief from the heat at night. Considering heat effects will be cumulative, late week looks compoundingly dangerous. The early season event, and temperatures increasing slightly each day, will exacerbate any existing heat issues.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare. Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023. For our region, this heat wave may be compared to our worse than June of 1994. Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

Weak upper waves on the northern periphery of the 596-598 dm ridge, along with a lake breeze, may again allow for some pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon both days. Best chances Thursday will be Pittsburgh and north, potentially slightly further south on Friday, based on latest hi res ensemble guidance with a similar environment to Wednesday with a 60-90% chance of >1000 J/kg of CAPE.
Weaker flow aloft may keep shear values slightly less in the 15-20 kt range. This would still be sufficient for scattered storms capable of downbursts with modeled DCAPE >1000 J/kg.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat continues into Saturday and heat headlines have been extended through Saturday evening.
- Relief from the heat favored with a passing trough over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday.
- A weaker ridge builds in after Monday.
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The upper ridge will begin to retrograde on Saturday but still hold strong enough for one more day providing a continuation of the dangerous heat, and perhaps the hottest day. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures still remain in the 22-24C range and even the NBM 10th percentile suggests low to mid 90s. Due to the compounding effects, continued heat indices at and above 100 degrees, and the WPC heat risk tool showing major to extreme impacts, the heat headlines have been extended through Saturday. That said, some subtle weaknesses in the flow as the ridge axis pulls south and allow for isolated to scattered afternoon convection to throw wrinkles in the heat, but predictability in coverage and location is low probability.

Come Sunday into Monday, the ridge retrogrades with ensemble clusters showing respectable agreement on an upper trough pushing down through the Great Lakes and 500 mb heights decreasing up to 10 dm by Monday. Surface high pressure migrates off to the east ahead of low pressure associated with the upper trough that drags to our north, but some timing differences with it lend lower confidence. Ensemble precipitation chances increase overnight Sunday into Monday as a cold front may drag through during that timeframe. Upper ridging is then favored to build back in by mid week with highs again potentially increasing to above 90 degrees, but heights don't look quite as extreme as this week.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The 00Z sounding shows a bit of capping at 800mb that limited convection today and will continue to limit further convection overnight when combined with diurnal processes. With will result in a prevailing light surface southeast flow with decoupling overnight.

Tomorrow, light winds continue, becoming more variable into the afternoon. Afternoon storms are expected to initiate on the lake/land boundary and possibly allow enough outflow to initiate convection north of KPIT. PROB30s were included for the most susceptible ports (BVI,FKL,DUJ) for now. It is possible that these mentions expand. Any storms will be capable of downbursts with elevated instability and dry air.

Outlook
Modest probability for VFR and dry weather through the week with upper ridging, save any isolated afternoon thunderstorm chances.
Restrictions with rain may return late this weekend with a cold front.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records.

There is low probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

There is a modest probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

PIT: 98F (1988)
HLG: 100F (1933)
MGW: 99F (1893)
PHD: 99F (1988)
ZZV: 101F (1988,1934)
DUJ: 92F (1969) *RECORD TIED ON 6/18/24*

Daily high maximum (left) and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975) *Record High Today*

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

Saturday, June 22nd Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1923) 72F (2011)
Morgantown, WV: 96F (1923,1988)73F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 71F (1997)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 91F (2022) 68F (2022)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ007>009-013-015- 016-022-031-074-076>078.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ014-020- 021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>511.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KIDI INDIANA COUNTY/JIMMY STEWART FLD/,PA 3 sm25 mincalm10 smClear72°F68°F88%30.38
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