Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indiana, PA
May 12, 2024 11:51 PM EDT (03:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 8:34 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 122342 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 742 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday as temperatures warm about 10 degrees above normal.
Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure crosses the Ohio Valley.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clearing trend and cool temperatures overnight tonight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No major changes to the overnight period needed. Previous forecast is in good shape.
Previous discussion...
Vertically stacked low pressure currently centered over New England continues pushing away to the east through tonight, allowing a weak upper shortwave ridge to build in its wake.
Clearing skies and quiet weather can be expected overnight as a result, with temperatures trending around, or perhaps a few degrees below, normal for this time of year.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry weather likely with lower humidity - A few isolated showers and storms possible north of I-80 - Sunshine will bring temperatures close to 80F -------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak shortwave ridging prevails overhead, with height rises and warm advection combining to push afternoon temperatures upwards of 10 degrees above climatological normals (near 80 degrees for most). An 850mb jet and region of enhanced WAA traverses the lower Great Lakes from west to east, which could produce some low-end shower and thunderstorm chances along and north of I-80. However, the bulk of any precip is expected to remain north of the area.
Farther upstream over the Great Plains, an upper low moves eastward across Kansas and into Missouri during the period. This will be the system that brings another round of showers and storms to our local area midweek.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Midweek showers and thunderstorms likely, with limited severe and flooding threats.
- Dry conditions likely on Thursday - Ensemble spread is high Friday and Saturday, but another trough appears to bring shower chances -------------------------------------------------------------------
Upper trough expected to move across southern IL Tuesday and then along IN/KY border Tuesday night. This feature then progresses across southern Ohio and northern West Virginia Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Warm and moist advection will push precipitable water values up around 1.3" by Tuesday afternoon and support showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday night. Lingering showers Wednesday morning taper off in the afternoon and evening with the upper low departing and high pressure building in from the west.
NBM 48 hour Probabilities of exceeding 1" of rainfall have lowered somewhat and now range from about 20% in the northwest portion of the forecast area to about 40% over the ridges.
Probabilities for 2" are less than 10% everywhere and in many cases less than 5%. Instability will be marginal and 500 mb flow quickly drops below 20 knots Tuesday, so it appears that the probability of significant impacts for convection are low.
Upper ridging brings sunshine and temperatures in the 75-80F range on Thursday. Another trough with potential for showers and thunderstorms appears to be on tap for Friday and Saturday, though considerable standard deviation is noted in ensemble guidance during that period over the Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure will shift east overnight and promote light southerly winds and clear skies overnight. Tomorrow, winds up to 10kts are possible out of the southeast as as the at the pressure gradient increases. A weak mid-level wave will pass tomorrow, though the best precipitation forcing will remain north of the area. Nonetheless, local ports may see in increase in mid- level clouds.
Outlook
Restrictions are likely, along with showers and possible thunderstorms, Tuesday through early Thursday as slow moving low pressure crosses the region.
Another crossing low pressure system with precipitation and restriction chances is becoming more likely for next weekend as well.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 742 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday as temperatures warm about 10 degrees above normal.
Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure crosses the Ohio Valley.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clearing trend and cool temperatures overnight tonight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No major changes to the overnight period needed. Previous forecast is in good shape.
Previous discussion...
Vertically stacked low pressure currently centered over New England continues pushing away to the east through tonight, allowing a weak upper shortwave ridge to build in its wake.
Clearing skies and quiet weather can be expected overnight as a result, with temperatures trending around, or perhaps a few degrees below, normal for this time of year.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry weather likely with lower humidity - A few isolated showers and storms possible north of I-80 - Sunshine will bring temperatures close to 80F -------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak shortwave ridging prevails overhead, with height rises and warm advection combining to push afternoon temperatures upwards of 10 degrees above climatological normals (near 80 degrees for most). An 850mb jet and region of enhanced WAA traverses the lower Great Lakes from west to east, which could produce some low-end shower and thunderstorm chances along and north of I-80. However, the bulk of any precip is expected to remain north of the area.
Farther upstream over the Great Plains, an upper low moves eastward across Kansas and into Missouri during the period. This will be the system that brings another round of showers and storms to our local area midweek.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Midweek showers and thunderstorms likely, with limited severe and flooding threats.
- Dry conditions likely on Thursday - Ensemble spread is high Friday and Saturday, but another trough appears to bring shower chances -------------------------------------------------------------------
Upper trough expected to move across southern IL Tuesday and then along IN/KY border Tuesday night. This feature then progresses across southern Ohio and northern West Virginia Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Warm and moist advection will push precipitable water values up around 1.3" by Tuesday afternoon and support showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday night. Lingering showers Wednesday morning taper off in the afternoon and evening with the upper low departing and high pressure building in from the west.
NBM 48 hour Probabilities of exceeding 1" of rainfall have lowered somewhat and now range from about 20% in the northwest portion of the forecast area to about 40% over the ridges.
Probabilities for 2" are less than 10% everywhere and in many cases less than 5%. Instability will be marginal and 500 mb flow quickly drops below 20 knots Tuesday, so it appears that the probability of significant impacts for convection are low.
Upper ridging brings sunshine and temperatures in the 75-80F range on Thursday. Another trough with potential for showers and thunderstorms appears to be on tap for Friday and Saturday, though considerable standard deviation is noted in ensemble guidance during that period over the Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure will shift east overnight and promote light southerly winds and clear skies overnight. Tomorrow, winds up to 10kts are possible out of the southeast as as the at the pressure gradient increases. A weak mid-level wave will pass tomorrow, though the best precipitation forcing will remain north of the area. Nonetheless, local ports may see in increase in mid- level clouds.
Outlook
Restrictions are likely, along with showers and possible thunderstorms, Tuesday through early Thursday as slow moving low pressure crosses the region.
Another crossing low pressure system with precipitation and restriction chances is becoming more likely for next weekend as well.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KIDI INDIANA COUNTY/JIMMY STEWART FLD/,PA | 3 sm | 16 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 45°F | 45°F | 100% | 30.03 |
State College, PA,
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